CAPIS Insights

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CAPIS EU Close – 4/12/2019

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posted by Clayton Duff on 04/12/2019 at 12:47 pm
by Clayton Duff on 04/12/2019

Markets have taken a positive view of the strong Chinese export data despite the growing trade balance with the US.  Imports fell but Aggregate financing was a trillion yuan ahead of estimates.  European indices finished near highs with a stronger US market helping sentiment.  Autos continued to lead from earlier, up nearly 2% as were Banks. Basic Resources finished 120 bps better with roughly half of the sectors higher.  Healthcare finished down just over a percent.  Of interest, the ECB is not too keen on using tiered deposit rates but may instead consider negative rates to bank via a TLTRO. Carl Zeiss +6.6% holders viewed gains on a positive 1H and FY outlook.  EBIT margins are seen up 15-17%. Shortsellers cleaned up on Plus500 -31% today after 1Q revs disappointed.   The firm blamed extremely subdued markets along with customers being profitable as the company makes spread-betting. Thomas Cook slipped 4.6% on an ominous move by a creditor.  One of its lenders is looking to offload £25M in exposure on a facility due in 2022.  The offer was being made at a 30% discount. For Monday India reports trade data with Rightmove House Price moves in the UK.

Markets have taken a positive view of the strong Chinese export data despite the growing trade balance with the US.  Imports fell but Aggregate financing was a trillion yuan ahead of estimates.  European indices finished near highs with a stronger US market helping sentiment.  Autos continued to lead from earlier, up nearly 2% as were Banks. Basic Resources finished 120 bps better with roughly half of the sectors higher.  Healthcare finished down just over a percent.  Of interest, the ECB is not too keen on using tiered deposit rates but may instead consider negative rates to bank via a TLTRO. Carl Zeiss +6.6% holders viewed gains on a positive 1H and FY outlook.  EBIT margins are seen up 15-17%. Shortsellers cleaned up on Plus500 -31% today after 1Q revs disappointed.   The firm blamed extremely subdued markets along with customers being profitable as the company makes spread-betting. Thomas Cook slipped 4.6% on an ominous move by a creditor.  One of its lenders is looking to offload £25M in exposure on a facility due in 2022.  The offer was being made at a 30% discount. For Monday India reports trade data with Rightmove House Price moves in the UK.

Clayton Duff headshot

CAPIS EU Close Recap – March 4th, 2019

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posted by Clayton Duff on 03/04/2019 at 1:00 pm
by Clayton Duff on 03/04/2019

European indices held in well in the face of US indices shaking off early moves and working lower.  Across Europe moves were subdued with a bias toward small gains on the day. Roughly 2/3 of the Stoxx 600 sectors closed better with Media and Construction up while Travel names lagged.  Volume in the Stoxx 600 was off 15%. UK construction names moved up despite UK Markit Construction PMI falling to under the expansion/contraction level. Ferguson +.6%, Bovis Home +1.4%, Persimmon +1.1%. Industrial firm Rotork closed down 3.5% after they announced slower growth is expected for this year.  Sales growth is seen as modest as the 1H missed YoY.  The firm is doing a system assessment to increase performance. Travel names lagged with IAG off 4.8% as they see free cash flow for 2019 under 2018 levels. From earlier: Nordea -3.5%, Ahold Delhaize -2.4%, Novo Nordisk -.3%, Fresenius Medical -2.2%, CNH +.5%, Daily Mail +4.5%. Tonight, Caixin PMI Services/Composite levels will be released in China and in Japan.  HK PMI is also out with the country hoping to move out contraction.  SK is out with GDP figures with the RBA to announce rates Down Under.  PMI readings are due as well…

European indices held in well in the face of US indices shaking off early moves and working lower.  Across Europe moves were subdued with a bias toward small gains on the day. Roughly 2/3 of the Stoxx 600 sectors closed better with Media and Construction up while Travel names lagged.  Volume in the Stoxx 600 was off 15%. UK construction names moved up despite UK Markit Construction PMI falling to under the expansion/contraction level. Ferguson +.6%, Bovis Home +1.4%, Persimmon +1.1%. Industrial firm Rotork closed down 3.5% after they announced slower growth is expected for this year.  Sales growth is seen as modest as the 1H missed YoY.  The firm is doing a system assessment to increase performance. Travel names lagged with IAG off 4.8% as they see free cash flow for 2019 under 2018 levels. From earlier: Nordea -3.5%, Ahold Delhaize -2.4%, Novo Nordisk -.3%, Fresenius Medical -2.2%, CNH +.5%, Daily Mail +4.5%. Tonight, Caixin PMI Services/Composite levels will be released in China and in Japan.  HK PMI is also out with the country hoping to move out contraction.  SK is out with GDP figures with the RBA to announce rates Down Under.  PMI readings are due as well…

CAPIS Global Markets 2/12/2019

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posted by CAPIS on 02/12/2019 at 12:53 pm
by CAPIS on 02/12/2019

Asian Markets The core Asian markets had a solid day especially Japan which need to play catch up following yesterday’s holiday.  Peripherals lagged.  Continued trade talk optimism is being given additional by a tentative budget/border agreement in the States.  The majority of sectors finished the day to the upside.  Healthcare led followed by gains of at least 1% among industrials, consumer discretionary, materials and IT.  Real estate was the only laggard of note giving ground by c. 0.3%. The BoJ is reducing JBG purchases in the 10 to 25 yr. maturity range.  The central bank is doing so to halt falling yields.  Ironically, today marks the 2o year anniversary of its extensive quantitative easy policy (CNBC). Other Headlines from the Region The healthcare gains were primarily drive by Chinese pharmaceutical companies.  China is pledging various incentives for companies to develop cancer and rare disease treatments. Toshiba -5.9% confirmed yesterday’s Nikkei report the company needed to cut it OP outlook. NCSoft’s -4.2% NI and OP are below the range of estimates.   Revenues are below consensus but at least within the range.  The company’s newer game offerings have lagged projections. Geely Auto’s +4.4% January sales rose 2%, beating estimates in both wholesale and…

Asian Markets The core Asian markets had a solid day especially Japan which need to play catch up following yesterday’s holiday.  Peripherals lagged.  Continued trade talk optimism is being given additional by a tentative budget/border agreement in the States.  The majority of sectors finished the day to the upside.  Healthcare led followed by gains of at least 1% among industrials, consumer discretionary, materials and IT.  Real estate was the only laggard of note giving ground by c. 0.3%. The BoJ is reducing JBG purchases in the 10 to 25 yr. maturity range.  The central bank is doing so to halt falling yields.  Ironically, today marks the 2o year anniversary of its extensive quantitative easy policy (CNBC). Other Headlines from the Region The healthcare gains were primarily drive by Chinese pharmaceutical companies.  China is pledging various incentives for companies to develop cancer and rare disease treatments. Toshiba -5.9% confirmed yesterday’s Nikkei report the company needed to cut it OP outlook. NCSoft’s -4.2% NI and OP are below the range of estimates.   Revenues are below consensus but at least within the range.  The company’s newer game offerings have lagged projections. Geely Auto’s +4.4% January sales rose 2%, beating estimates in both wholesale and…

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