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Morning Note

News

Morning Note

"Morning Note – 12/20/18"

posted by CAPIS on 12/20/2018 at 7:43 am

by CAPIS

12/20/2018 at 7:43 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: none of note.

Secondaries on deck: MOTS APDN MNKD.

Convertibles Prices:

Filings After The Close: MNKD common stock; mixed shelf offering; BNFT convertible offering.

IPO Filing: none of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings From After the Close:

Surprises: MLHR +.03 RAD +.02

Flat:

Misses: REVG  -0.25 PIR -0.61

Positive Guidance: MLHR

Mixed Guidance: RAD REVG

Negative Guidance:

News After The Close:

Tilray (TRAY) to partner with Ambev (ABEV).

Senate passes a stop gap spending bill to avert shutdown until February 8th.

Dividend Raises: LMNR ALG ISTR

Dividend Cuts:

Special Dividend:

New Repurchase Announcements: SB

Index Changes: Celanese (CE) to join S&P 500.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Earlier is better this week. Then we get the selling in the afternoon.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning:

U.S. futures: S&P +8.50, Dow Jones +65, NDX +31 and Russell 2000 +12 with fair values HIGHER CUTTING INTO GAINS. Asia and Europe lower as they follow U.S. weakness on Wednesday.

Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.11 with yields lower since Wednesday morning. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Wednesday: None.

Weakest Sectors Wednesday: Services, Conglomerates and Industrials.

One Month Winners: None.

Three Month Winners: Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Healthcare  and Conglomerates

Year To Date Winners: Healthcare.

Earnings Ahead: (sorted by Market Cap and only most impactful and notables listed)

Earnings Expected After The Close: CTAS CAMP NKE

Earnings Due Friday Morning: KMX.

Rags & Mags:

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

10 Things In Tech You Need To Know Today. (Business Insider)

North Korea threatens not to denuclearize. (U.S. News & World Report)

Senator Lindsey Graham states that the demise of ISIS in Syria is “fake news”. (USA Today)

Putin warns of nuclear war. (The Mirror)

China confirms more trade talks in January. (Reuters)

Congress to introduce a bill to regulate sports betting. (NY Post)

Congress passes bill to speed up quantum computing. (WSJ)

Pinterest looks to go public in 2019. Etsy up 96% since going public as a comparison. From lows, up 615%.

U.S. to investigate Airbus over corruption. (Le Monde)

Hedge Fund Manager tells CNBC that the “Fed Put” is dead. (CNBC)

TSA estimates 46 million fliers. 

Earnings Reported This Morning:

Surprises: ACN +.11 CAG +.11  BB +.03 APOG +.02 WBA +.02

Missed: SAFM -0.29 SCHL -.07

Positive Guidance:

Mixed Guidance: ACN APOG CAG

Date Points:

Yesterday saw 1353 stocks rise and 1602 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1276 rise and 1830 fall.

The SP 500 is still below its 50 day simple moving average and its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is still below its 50 day simple moving exponential average and 200 day simple moving average.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to cash on 11/21. For a move to cash, the 10DMA needs to have two days in row below -200.

YTD 31% of stocks are higher and 69% are lower. Of the stocks lower, the average return is –29% with the median at -24%. Updated 12/14/18 close with next update on 12/21/18 close.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

Technical Takeaways

In Erlanger Chart Room, we track usual put activity. We are at an extreme where the market should rally due to what we call a put squeeze. Expect upside action over the next 10 trading days. The chart below is weekly so the moves downward are much bigger than it appears.

 

Trading:

Yesterday saw the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 all closed below support. It was a struggle. We noted Wednesday, “FOMC days can see wild trading” and that is exactly what we got.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Courtesty of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic:

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

November Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to remain at 0.1%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico:

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is out with its latest announcement and made no changes.

The Bank of England (BOE) is out with its latest announcement and made no changes.

President Trump to sign the Agricultural Improvement Act of 2018 (Farm Bill) at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings: AQST RCII BRAC AETI HIIQ

M&A News & Rumors

Roper (ROP) to sell Scientific Imaging businesses to Teledyne (TDY) for $225 million.

Greif (GEF) to buy Caraustar for $1.4 billion.

Upgrades & Downgrades

Notable Gap Ups and Downs (> 5% or <-5%):

Gap Ups: TLRY SB XON RAD MLHR BB

Gap Downs: DBVT SPPI GTHX MNKD REVG PIR LMNR CAG  

 

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