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Morning Note


Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/9/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/09/2019 at 7:56 am


01/09/2019 at 7:56 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: IPOs will pick back up in the next couple weeks now that we are in 2019, Secondaries pricing this morning NYMT and expect it to trade higher.

IPO Filings After The Close:

Secondary Filings: NYMT GTN AMRS common stock.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Missed: SGH $-0.02 KSHB $0.07

Lower Guidance: SGH

Index Additions: NEO to join S&P 600 on open 1/14.

Dividend Cuts: TOO

News After The Close:

The World Bank lowers growth worldwide to 2.9%.

Skyworks Solution (SKWS) cuts Q1 guidance, Apple supplier.

Sirius (SIRI) beats 2018 subscriber guidance, raises 2019 estimates.

Antero Resources (AR) forecasts 2019 production increases by 17 to 20% and a lower capital budget. Gives guidance for the year as well.

Federal Reserve Board to raise state member banks stress tests. Comment period to 2/19/19.

Herbalife (HLF) Michael Johns the Executive Chairman is back as Interim CEO after CEO Richard Goudis resigns  due to failing to adhere to company standards.

Bloomberg reports CBS Corp (CBS) Board to discuss Viacom (VIAB) merger.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Stocks saw some early weakness and then again from 2:00-3:00 p.m. but for the most part is it was a positive day.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning:

U.S. futures: S&P +11.50, Dow Jones +124,  NDX +33 and Russell 2000 +8 with fair values HIGHER CUTTING INTO GAINS.  Asia and Europe higher this morning.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.55 with yields higher since Tuesday morning with the yield at 2.74%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Tuesday: All sectors higher led by Utilities, Services, Industrials, Consumer Goods and Healthcare.

Weakest Sectors Tuesday: None of note.

One Month Winners: None.

Three Month Winners: Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Healthcare, Conglomerates and Utilities.

Year to Date: Conglomerates, Materials, Services and Industrials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

Wednesday After the Close: WDFC PSMT KBH BBBY PRGS MPAA

Thursday Before The Open: DAL

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: STZ $+0.29 GBX $+0.04 SCHN $+0.02 MSM $+0.01 LEN $+0.01

Missed Estimates:

Mixed Guidance: GBX

Lower Guidance: MSM

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: President Trump addressed the nation last night in a short quick and measured speech making the case for border security and the wall which could conclude the government shutdown. (FOX)

Paul Manafort gave poll data to Russians. (NYT)

Supreme Court refuses to step in on sealed subpoena that may be tied to Mueller case. (NYT)

Saudi Arabia to sell bonds amid Khashoggi plot. Outcome remains uncertain. (WSJ)

The U.S. and China conclude trade talks, short on details but markets like the result. (Bloomberg)

Fitch threatens to downgrade U.S. debt from AAA if the government shutdown continues. (CNBC)

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to resign once Attorney General nominee William Barr is confirmed. (ABC)

Apple (AAPL) to cut iPhone production 10%. (NAR Report)

Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook was interviewed after the close by Mad Money’s Jim Cramer. (CNBC)

Qualcomm (QCOM) claims Apple (AAPL) not being truthful on settlement talks. (Reuters)

Hedge Fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach of Doubleline sees yields now in rising mode.(CNBC)

Weak Treasury Demand at auction a concern. (Bloomberg)

Date Points:

Yesterday saw 2294 stocks rise and 648 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2105 rise and 974 fall.

The SP 500 remains below its 50 day simple moving average and its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is still below its 50 day simple moving average and 200 day simple moving average. All three indexes are now above their 5,10 and 20 day moving averages.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy Monday at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened Monday.

YTD  29% (+3%) of stocks are higher and 71% (-3%) are lower. Updated 1/4/18 close with next update on 1/11/19 close.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc and Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


Yesterday saw the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000 all close above resistance. This is the third time in nine days that all indexes closed above resistance.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

API Petroleum Data sees Crude Oil draw -6.12 million barrels. Gasoline builds by 5.05 million barrels.

Weekly Mortgage Applications rise by 23.5% week over week.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

December Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.


The government shutdown continues as no agreements reached.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: MIICF (investor meeting) PLUG (c call) COST (monthly sales update).

Sellside Conferences: J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference, Citi Global Telecom Media Technology (TMT) West Conference, Morgan Stanley China New Economy Summit.

Industry Conferences: The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) runs this week in Las Vegas. Biotech Showcase. EBD Group Biotech Showcase.

M&A News & Rumors

Bloomberg reports CBS Corp (CBS) Board to discuss Viacom (VIAB) merger.

Upgrades & Downgrades

Gap Up and Downs Pre Market: Winners: SCHN +10% GMED +9% VIRT +7% CHK +6% Losers: SGH -16% STZ -11% TLND -7% MSM -4%.

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