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Morning Note


Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/10/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/09/2019 at 5:26 pm


01/09/2019 at 5:26 pm

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: IPOs will pick back up in the next couple weeks now that we are in 2019.

Secondaries on deck: pricings this morning .

IPO Filings After The Close:

Secondary Filings:  common stock.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: KBH +.02 BBBY +.01 PSMT +.01



Higher Guidance: BBBY

Lower Guidance:

News After The Close:

Zumiez (ZUMZ) reports December Comps +4.9% versus November and +7.9% a year ago, raises guidance.

Costco (COST) reports December Comps +9.2% versus November and +11.50% a year ago.

Union Pacific (UNP) updates their guidance. December carloadings stronger than expected with international container imports.

Asset manager updates to AUM. Cohen & Steers (CNS) $54.8 billion vs. $58.6 billion in November. Franklin Resources (BEN) $649.9 billion in December versus $683.3 billion. Victory Capital (VCTR) $52.8 billion vs. $63.6 billion on September 30th.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Stocks saw some early weakness and then again from 2:00-3:00 p.m. but for the most part is it was a positive day.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning:

U.S. futures: S&P -15, Dow Jones -107,  NDX -43 and Russell 2000 -7 with fair values HIGHER ADDING TO LOSSES.  Asia and Europe mostly lower this morning.

Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.95 with yields lower since Wednesday morning with the yield at 2.695%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Wednesday: Materials, Industrials, Services and Financials.

Weakest Sectors Wednesday: Utilities and Conglomerates.

One Month Winners: Technology, Industrials and Materials.

Three Month Winners: None of note.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Healthcare and Conglomerates.

Year to Date: All higher.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

Thursday After the Close: SNX.

Friday Before The Open: APHA.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: None of note.

Missed Estimates: None of note.

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell interviewed at The Economic Club of New York by David Rubenstein at 12:30 a.m. EDT.  (WSJ)

President Trump to the border today. Fox interview tonight at 9:00 p.m. EDT.  Likely to declare “national emergency”. (WSJ)

Retail stocks drop on weak sales from Kohl’s (KSS). (CNBC)

Macy’s (M) guides lower as well. (Bloomberg Radio & CNBC)

Ford (F) updates massive restructuring in Europe. (Financial Times)

Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) to pay $650 million fine over emissions. (NYT)

Apple (AAPL) has challenges with services business as well. (WSJ)

China and the U.S. did not agree to a date on the next set of meeting. (Washington Post)

Hedge Fund Titan Jeff Vinik to reopen hedge fund as he “still has fire in the belly”. (CNBC)

First time since 2006 that no bank failed in the U.S. (CNBC)

Date Points:

Yesterday saw 1967 stocks rise and 955 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1967 rise and 1094 fall.

The SP 500 remains below its 50 day simple moving average and its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is still below its 50 day simple moving average and 200 day simple moving average. All three indexes are now above their 5,10 and 20 day moving averages.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy Monday at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened Monday.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  29% (+3%) of stocks are higher and 71% (-3%) are lower. Updated 1/4/18 close with next update on 1/11/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


Yesterday saw the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000  close above pivot with the Russell 2000 closing above resistance as well. The Russell 2000 remains the leading index in 2019.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.


The government shutdown continues as no agreements reached.

House passes a spending bill to get parts of the government going again. Senate will not take up the bill. So dead on arrival.

President Trump heads to the border with a visit to McAllen, Texas.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at 8:35 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell interviewed at The Economic Club of New York by David Rubenstein at 12:30 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard also speaks at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Board of Governors Member Randal Quarles speaks at 5;30 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: AMTX (update and presentation), RICK (conference call) and MGEN (at T-Cell Lymphoma Forum).

Sellside Conferences: J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. UBS Greater China Conference.

Industry Conferences: The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) runs this week in Las Vegas.

M&A News & Rumors:

PacWest Bancorp (PACW) terminates deal to purchase El Dorado SavingsBank announced on 9/12/18.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Upgrades of Note: WM DOV  (UBS) VICI STZ (Goldman) TWTR (Merrill) RL NKE (Needham)

Downgrades of Note: WBC PCAR ITW (JP Morgan)  YELP (Morgan Stanley) SPN (Jefferies)  ELF (Wells Fargo) DRH (Goldman) BBT (Merrill)

Pre-Market Movers:

Gap Up and Downs Pre Market: Winners: VERI +24% BBBY +16% ZUMZ +11% KBH +7% Losers: MDB -9% KSS -6% YELP -4%..

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