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Morning Note


Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/11/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/11/2019 at 7:41 am


01/11/2019 at 7:41 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: IPOs will pick back up in the next couple weeks now that we are in 2019. Government shutdown may delay filings.

Secondaries on deck: SECO prices this morning .

IPO Filings After The Close:

Secondary Filings:  common stock. DLR TRGP bond offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: SNX +0.40

Higher Guidance: SNX

News After The Close:

Hawaiian Holdings (HA) raised Q4 guidance for unit revenue growth.

Arch Capital (ACGL) to take pre-tax loss of $110 to $130 million due to Hurricane Michael and California wildfires.

Urban Outfitters (URBN) sees holiday comp sales up 5.1%.

Twilio (TWLO) names Chee Chew as Chief Product Officer, former Amazon and Google executive.

More Assets Under Management (AUM) Updates. Artisan Partners (APAM) sees AUM drop to $96.2 billion from$105.4 billion. Invesco (IVZ) sees AUM drop 4.1% to $882. billion. Alliance Bernstein (AB) sees AUM drop to $516 million from $533 billion. Waddell & Reed (WDR) sees assets drop t0 $65.8 bilion from $72 billion. Virtus Investment Partners (VRTS) sees AUM drop to $92.3 billion from $105.6 billion.

PG&E (PCG) sees Moody’s downgrade to Ba3 from B2. Potential for more downgrades noted the ratings agency.

Q4 Global PC Shipments fell 4.3% to 68.6 million with Lenovo, Hewlett Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) 63% of the shipments.

PVH pre-announces to the upside and restructures Calvin Klein.

Activision Blizzard (ATVI) releases that Bungie will assume the Destiny franchise. Stock lower on the news.

Repurchase Announcements: LEN CS

Dividend Increases: STAG

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Stocks another strong day with weakness only 9:30-10:00 a.m. EDT and 1:00-2:00 p.m. EDT.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning:

U.S. futures: S&P -7.25, Dow Jones -55,  NDX -25.75 and Russell 2000 –6.20  with fair values HIGHER ADDING TO LOSSES.  Asia mostly higher. Europe mostly lower this morning.

Gold,silver and copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.84 with yields lower since Thursday morning with the yield at 2.71%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Thursday: Industrials, Utilities, Consumer Goods, and Healthcare.

Weakest Sectors Thursday: Conglomerates.

One Month Winners: Industrials, Materials and Technology.

Three Month Winners: None of note.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Healthcare and Conglomerates.

Year to Date: All higher.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

Monday Before The Open: C SJR.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: None of note. APHA +0.26

Missed Estimates: None of note.

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: Government shutdown moves to a new phase as workers miss a paycheck. Now 21 days in duration. (CNBC)

Brexit vote likely to be delayed past March 29th date. (Evening Standard)

U.S. military begins to pull out of Syria earlier than expected. (CNN)

President Trump said on FOX News would move ahead with using national emergency to build the wall. (NBC News)

China to fine tune GDP with a drop to 6.0% to 6.5% from 6.5%. (China)

Chines Vice Premier Liu He to visit U.S. for trade talks on January 30-31st. (Bloomberg)

Huawei Sales Director charged in Poland with espionage. (WSJ)

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) increases pricing on 24 drugs. This follows Allergan (AGN) price increases. (Reuters)

China retailers are dropping the price of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone. (Reuters)

Annheuser Bush (BUD) to IPO Asian Brewing unit. (Bloomberg)

Slack may go with a direct listing as opposed to traditional IPO. (WSJ)

Date Points:

Yesterday saw 1759 stocks rise and 1127 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1667 rise and 1365 fall.

The SP 500 remains below its 50 day simple moving average and its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is still below its 50 day simple moving average and 200 day simple moving average. All three indexes are now above their 5,10 and 20 day moving averages. Of note, the Russell 2000 is getting close to its 50 day at 1455.57.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy Monday at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened Monday.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  29% (+3%) of stocks are higher and 71% (-3%) are lower. Updated 1/4/18 close with next update on 1/11/19 close.

The latest short interest data is out and NYSE Short Interest  rose 2.88% while NASDAQ Short Interest rose 0.33%. Here is a sort by sector.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


Yesterday saw  the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000  close above resistance with S&P 500 losing above pivot. The Russell 2000 remains the leading index in 2019.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

December CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to -0.2% from -0.1%.

The Treasury Budget for December is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT and was $-23.2 billion.


The government shutdown remains in effect and now workers have missed a payroll.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: SWK (presentation at CES) 

Sellside Conferences: UBS Greater China Conference.

Industry Conferences: The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) concludes.

M&A News & Rumors:

First Citizen (FCNCA) to buy First South Bancorp (FSBS) for $1.15  per share. To close by end of Q2.

Flotek (FTK) to sell Florida Chemical to Archer Daniels (ADM) for $175 million.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Best Upgrade Call of the Day: NFLX

Worst Downgrade Call of the Day: YUM

Pre-Market Movers:

Gap Up and Downs Pre Market: Winners: TLRY +21% CRBP +16% ERJ +7% PVH +6% SNX +6% Losers: ATVI -7% PCG -6%

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