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Morning Note


Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/16/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/16/2019 at 7:45 am


01/16/2019 at 7:45 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: IPOs will pick back up in the next couple weeks now that we are in 2019. Government shutdown may delay filings.

Secondaries on deck:  ENR priced this morning with convertible as well. Other secondaries of note STML EVBG.

IPO Filings After The Close:

Secondary Filings  RVNC  common stock;  mixed shelf offering.  AMH FOX.A notes offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: UAL +0.39 PNFP +.02

Missed: FULT -.02

Guidance Mixed:  UAL

Positive Guidance For Upcoming Quarter:

Negative Guidance For Upcoming Quarter: EFII THG F FISV

Dividend Increase: TGE KALU OGS EPD

Index Changes: TFX joins S&P 500, GDOT to S&P 400, MERC to join S&P 600 as of Friday. SRE to replace PCG in the Dow Jones Utility Average.

Repurchase Announcements: 

News After The Close:

API Petroleum Data saw a draw of 0.56 million barrels of Crude Inventories and Gasoline Inventories built by 5.991 million barrels.

Nordstrom (JWN) holiday comps rose only +1.3% leading to weakness today.

SNAP CFO resigns after 8 months on the job, we hardly knew ya!

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Stocks are continuing to remain positive this week on an hour by hour basis.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures Rising As Morning Advances

U.S. futures: S&P +6.75, Dow Jones +94,  NDX +11 and Russell 2000 +3.50  with fair values HIGHER CUTTING INTO GAINS.  Asia mostly higher. Europe modestly higher this morning.

Gold flat to down with silver lower and copper higher. WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.67 with yields higher since Monday morning with the yield at 2.738%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Tuesday: Healthcare, Technology, Utilities and Conglomerates.

Weakest Sectors Tuesday: Industrials.

One Month Winners: Financials, Industrials and Conglomerates.

Three Month Winners: Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities and Conglomerates.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities.

Year to Date: All higher.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

Today After The Close: CSX KMI AA HWC FUL EGBN PLXS.


Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates:  GS +1.26 BAC +.07 BK +.06 CMA +.06 USB +.04 .

Missed Estimates: BLK -.25 PNC -.03. 

Raised Guidance: PNC.

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: Britain to Hold No Confidence Vote on Prime Minister Theresa May. (Bloomberg)

Five Things You Need To Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg) – Confidence Vote, Day 26 of Shutdown, Bank Earnings, Limited Government Data and Markets Quiet.

Trump Tweets Of Note: Tweeting on “The Wall” and border security this morning.

Genesee & Wyoming (GWR) sees traffic for December down 4.8% year over year.

China puts $84 billion into their banking system overnight. (FT)

Trump Administration orders some workers back to work without pay. (NYT)

Facebook (FB) tightens advertising rules overseas. (Reuters)

Apple (AAPL) to introduce new battery cases for latest iPhones after serious problems with the battery life. (Next Web Report)

Taiwan Semi (TSM) could struggle due to falling iPhone demand. (Digitimes)

Date Points:

Yesterday saw 1818 stocks rise and 1006 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2030 rise and 1023 fall.

The SP 500 remains below its 50 day simple moving average and its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is still below its 50 day simple moving average and 200 day simple moving average. All three indexes are now above their 5, 10 and 20 day moving averages. All three indexes regained their 5 day moving average yesterday.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy last Monday at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened last Monday.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  86% of stocks are higher and 14% are lower. Updated 1/11/19 close with next update on 1/18/19 close. First tracking  of 2019.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


Monday saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 struggle for the first time in quite a while but rebounded yesterday.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

Weekly API Data saw

Weekly Mortgage Applications rose 13.5% this morning.

December Import and Export Prices are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and last month fell -1.6% and -0.9% respectively.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

January Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.


The government shutdown enters Day 26.

Attorney General Nominee William Barr confirmation hearing continues this morning.

U.K. Confidence Vote on Prime Minister  Theresa May at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call:  UNFI (investor day), ENFC SMBK (c call on merger),

Sellside Conferences: Wolfe Research Global Auto Industry Conference. Needham Annual Growth Conference. TS Securities Mining Conference.

Industry Conferences: ICR Exchange Conference 2019 and the North American International Auto Show.

M&A News & Rumors:

Fiserv (FISV) to buy First Date Corp (FDC) for $22.74 a share, all stock deal. FISV also issues negative guidance in deal announcement.

Brown & Brown (BRO) to buy Izzo Insurance Services, no terms.

Rumor that Salesforce (CRM) may buy Click Software for $1.5 billion. (Calcalist Report)

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Best Upgrade Call of the Day: MET gets no love and with the stock down by -20% make sense.

Worst Downgrade Call of the Day: None of note

Pre-Market Movers:

Gap Up and Downs Pre Market: Winners: MERC +9% TYME +7% UAL +6% JETS +5%.   Losers: EFII -19% SNAP -11% HAFC -9% JWN -7% FULT -7% RVNC -4%.

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