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Morning Note


Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/22/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/22/2019 at 7:40 am


01/22/2019 at 7:40 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: The first IPO of the year is up this week, New Forest Energy (NFE) will be priced.

Secondaries on deck:  none priced this morning.

IPO Filings After The Close: GWPH mixed shelf offering; SSW common stock offering.

Secondary Filings  common stock. 

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: none of note. 

Missed:none of note.

Positive Guidance For Upcoming Quarter: 

Negative Guidance For Upcoming Quarter: 

Dividend Increase:  IBCP

Stock Repurchase Announcement: LIN

News After The Close:

Fitch affirmed the rating of France as AA.

Chubb (CB) sees Q4 net catastrophe losses of $585 million on a pre-tax and $505 million post tax basis.

More Russian sanctions would be disruptive to financial markets reports a leading credit agency.

AbbVie (ABBV) reports Phase 3 RESOLVE trial of ibrutinibin metastatic pancreatic cancer did not meet primary endpoints.

Textron’s (TXT) Bell Helicopter awarded $440 million Navy contract.

Weekend Reading:

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May still may delay the Brexit event. (Bloomberg)

France may restrict Huawei from being used. (Les Echos)

A new North Korean nuclear site has been found. (NBC News)

China Q4 GDP at 6.6% the slowest in 28 years. (CNBC)

Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller disputed Buzz Feed story late last week on Michael Cohen. (NYT)

Gold stocks profiled positively in Barron’s. (Barron’s)

Barron’s is cautious on gaming stocks Electronic Arts (EA) and  Activision Blizzard (ATVI). (Barron’s)

Cisco (CSCO) receives a positive review in Barron’s. (Barron’s)

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Stocks are continuing to remain positive this week on an hour by hour basis. There were no hours that had a negative week. Impressive action.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures Rising As Morning Advances

U.S. futures: S&P -16, Dow Jones -145,  NDX -48 and Russell 2000 -8.50  with fair values LOWER HELPING LOSSES.  Asia and Europe lower.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.33 with yields higher since Friday morning with the yield at 2.77%. Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Friday: Industrials, Technology. Financials and Materials.

Weakest Sectors Friday: Conglomerates.

One Month Winners: Conglomerates, Materials, Financials and Services.

Three Month Winners: Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities and Healthcare.

Twelve Month Winners: Conglomerates, Healthcare and Utilities.

Year to Date: All higher.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:



Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: LOGI +0.25 , EDU +0.08 , STLD +0.07 , HAL +0.04 , JNJ +0.02 , FNB +0.02 , MBFI +0.01 , SWK +0.01       

Flat: FBC, UBS

Missed Estimates:  FITB (0.03), ONB (0.04), ATI (0.04), TRV (0.10)

Raised Guidance:  

Lowered Guidance:  

Mixed Guidance: 

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: World Economic Forum starts today with plenty of news stories and interviews from there.

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) – Day 32, Brexit, Existing Home Sales, Earnings and markets fall.

IMF revises global growth lower by 0.1% but notes there may be more revisions to come.  (The Guardian)

MediWound (MDWD) met end points in Phase Three study.

Multiple interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg who are both in Davos. (CNBC and Bloomberg)

Chinese President Xi warns of risks as the economy slows. (Bloomberg)

U.S. still wants Huawei CFO extradited from Canada. (Bloomberg)

Foxconn to hire 50,000 workers in Q1. (Reuters)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 2168 stocks rise and 758 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2144 rise and 948 fall.

The SP 500 is firmly back above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also firmly above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. All three indexes are now above their 5, 10 and 20 day moving averages.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 1/18/19 close with next update on 1/25/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


Last week was a very strong week. The move is being justified by the hourly action. Will it continue?

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

December Existing Home Sales are due out and are expected to fall to 5.25 million from 5.32 million.


The government shutdown enters Day 32.

The World Economic Forum begins in Davos, Switzerland and runs through the week.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: 

Sellside Conferences:  None of note.

Industry Conferences: None of note.

M&A News & Rumors:

Best Upgrade Call of the Day: CHU makes sense technically as had a double bottom.

Worst Downgrade Call of the Day: FTNT as short selling is heavy and short do poorly on this name.

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  MDWD +29% AABA +4% Losers: TI -9% UBS -5% DB -4%. 

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