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Morning Note

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Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/23/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/23/2019 at 7:46 am

by CAPIS

01/23/2019 at 7:46 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: The first IPO of the year is up this week, New Forest Energy (NFE) will be priced.

Secondaries on deck:    BLPH CWST GPN  PTCT RNN SELB priced this morning.

IPO Filings After The Close:  common stock offering.  

Secondary Filings & Financings  CWST PTCT URGN SELB EHTH RNN BLPH GPN common stock. LPT VST RIG senior notes.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: NAVI +0.11 , AMTD +0.10 , LTXB +0.08 , IBM +0.05 , LRN +0.03 , ZION +0.02 , UCBI +0.02. 

Flat: HOPE, SFNC, CNMD, RNST

Missed: COF (0.51), IBKR (0.04), TBK (0.03).

Positive Guidance For Upcoming Quarter: PUMP

Negative Guidance For Upcoming Quarter: TSE QUOT SRLP 

Dividend Increase: CMA NTRS ROL QSR BPOP

Stock Repurchase Announcement: LBRT BPOP

News After The Close:

A bid for Millicom International Cellular (TIGO) will not happen as Liberty Latin American pulls pending offer.

IBM CFO interviewed on CNBC post earnings. (CNCB)

Lockheed Martin (LMT) wins $540 million Navy contract.

BAE (BAESY) wins Army contract worth $470 million.

The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged but took the inflation forecast to a lower level.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Stocks struggled yesterday and it was an ugly day. The indexes were mostly lower.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures Rebounding As Morning Advances

U.S. futures: S&P +11.50, Dow Jones +172,  NDX +29 and Russell 2000 +4.90  with fair values MIXED.  Asia and Europe mixed.

Gold, silver and copper modestly higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.31 with yields flat since Tuesday morning with the yield at 2.766%. Prices as of 8:35 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Tuesday: All lower.

Weakest Sectors Tuesday: Materials, Industrials and Technology.

One Month Winners: Conglomerates, Materials, Financials and Services.

Three Month Winners: Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Conglomerates and Utilities.

Year to Date: All higher.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

Today After The Close: TXN LVS CCI F CP XLNX LRCX CTXS VAR RJF PTC URI FFIV ALG TER of note.

Thursday Before The Open:  UNP BMY AEP LUV RCI RCL MKC FCX GWW AAL HBAN STM TXT JBLU AIT of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: UTX+.42 TDY +.26 WAT +.23 SYF +.16 NTRS +.16 HZO +.08 PG +.04 CMCSA +.01.         

Flat: ABT

Missed Estimates:  ROL -.01 CBU -.02 RES -.04 KMB -.06 ASML -.18

Raised Guidance:  

Lowered Guidance:  ASML KMB TEL 

Mixed Guidance: UTX TDY WAT PG ABT

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: 

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) – Shutdown day 33, Brexit concerns, Deutsche Bank probe, Davos and what is up for rest of day.

President Trump will not alter positioning with China as remains with a tough stance. (Reuters)

Democrats are going to ask that the USMCA trade deal with Mexico and Canada be altered. (FT)

Senate has two plans to end government shutdown, neither is expected to get the needed 60 votes. (NYT)

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) to pay $269.2 million in fine to settle fraud charges. (Reuters)

Deutsche Bank (DB) being investigated by the Fed over Danske money laundering charges. (Bloomberg)

Multiple Interview from Davos continue this week on CNBC and Bloomberg. For archives click through.

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 653 stocks rise and 2286 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 791 rise and 2298 fall. The combined a/d line was lower than on the Christmas Eve massacre, 12/24/18.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also firmly above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also firmly above its 50 day simple moving average  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 10 and 20 day moving averages but the Russell and S&P 500 failed their 5 day yesterday.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 1/18/19 close with next update on 1/25/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Trading:

Yesterday saw all indexes close below support for the first time since January 3rd. We need to watch closely to see if the current strengths begins to fail intraday.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications fell -2.7% week over week.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are delayed until tomorrow due to Monday’s holiday.

Politico:

The government shutdown enters Day 33.

The World Economic Forum continues in Davos, Switzerland and runs through the rest of the week.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: EXR KMI NBRV 

Sellside Conferences:  CIBC Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference. Raymond James Medicaid Symposium.

Industry Conferences: Semicon Korea.

M&A News & Rumors:

A bid for Millicom International Cellular (TIGO) will not happen as Liberty Latin American pulls pending offer.

Viacom (VIAB) to buy PlutoTV for $340 million.

ANSYS (ANSS) to purchase Granta Design, no terms announced.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Best Upgrade Call of the Day: WMT as the stock will get the support of the financial advisors at Morgan Stanley.

Worst Downgrade Call of the Day: None of note.

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  ARAY +11% LABL +10% SYF +9% EHTH +8% NAVI +8% IBM +7% CNMD +5%   Losers:  TSE -12%  PTCT -9% APHA -5% COF -5% AVCO -5%

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