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Morning Note

News

Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/24/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/24/2019 at 7:36 am

by CAPIS

01/24/2019 at 7:36 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: The first IPO of the year is up this week, New Forest Energy (NFE) will be priced.

Secondaries on deck:  EHTH URGN WVE priced this morning.

IPO Filings After The Close:  no common stock offerings today.  

Secondary Filings & Financings NCNA WVE common stock.  FHN mixed shelf offering. CNMD convertible offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat:  CP +0.30 , AZPN +0.29 , LRCX +0.19 , FFIV +0.17 , PTC +0.15 , TER +0.13 , CTXS +0.08 , XLNX +0.06 , RJF +0.06 , SLM +0.04 , FFBC +0.03 , TXN +0.03 , NXGN +0.03 , BXS +0.03 , STL +0.02 , TRMK +0.02 , CMRE +0.02 , HXL +0.02 , SLG +0.01

Flat: F, CATY

Missed:  TCBI (0.21), LVS (0.08), BGG (0.05), URI (0.03), CVBF (0.03), UMPQ (0.03), CNS (0.03), VAR (0.01), CCI (0.01)

Positive Guidance Post Earnings: CCI SLM XLNX

Mixed Guidance Post Earnings: AZPN CTXS PTC 

Negative Guidance Post Earnings: BGG FFIV  TXN

Positive Guidance For Upcoming Quarter: 

Negative Guidance For Upcoming Quarter: 

Dividend Increase: NSC

Stock Repurchase Announcement: LRCX FSB BLL

News After The Close:

PTC CFO Andrew Miller to retire and will stay until successor in place.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) fires Ian Smith COO and Interim CFO for personal behavior issue.

NY Post reports that Nielsen (NLSN) has put the company up for sale again.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Stocks recovered from early losses to rally back from the lows to close positive.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures Rebounding As Morning Advances

U.S. futures: S&P +6, Dow Jones +39,  NDX +36 and Russell 2000 +2.90  with fair values MIXED TO HIGHER LESSENING GAINS.  Asia and Europe higher.

Gold, silver and copper modestly lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.63 with yields higher since Wednesday morning with the yield at 2.725%. Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Wednesday: Utilities, Technology and Consumer Goods.

Weakest Sectors Wednesday: Materials and Conglomerates.

One Month Winners:  All lead by Conglomerates, Financials, Services, Industrial and Materials.

Three Month Winners: Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Conglomerates and Utilities.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

Today After The Close:  INTC SBUX ISRG NSC DFS RMD ETFC SIVB WDC ALK FICO AVT of note.

Friday Before The Open:  ABBV NEE CL APD ERIC SYF DHI LEA HRC IBKC ABCB WRLD of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: GWW +.36 TXT +.17 TAL +.14 AVX +.09 BMY +.09 LUV +.09  JBLU +.07 WBS +.07 UNP +.06 RCI +.05 STM +.05             

Flat: 

Missed Estimates:  BANC -.10 FCX -.08 ISCA -.07 AIT -.07 MKC -.03 HBAN -.03

Raised Guidance:  

Lowered Guidance:  STM MKC AIT

Mixed Guidance: TXT 

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: ECB keeps interest rate unchanged. Will reinvest in bonds. 

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) – Shutdown day 34 sees Senate Vote, Venezuela concerns, ECB up today, European PMI slows and what is up for rest of day.

President Trump reverses course and will not press for a State of The Union speech until the government is back open. (CNBC)

What makes this shutdown worse than others? (Bloomberg)

IMF Christine Lagarde notes that a China slowdown is a risk to the global economy. (CNBC)

U.S. Diplomats have 72 hours to leave Venezuela. (CNBC)

Total (TOT) CEO says top risk for oil is the geopolitical of  the Middle East. (CNBC)

Microsoft (MSFT) sees Bing blocked in China. (Bloomberg)

Apple (AAPL) kills 200 jobs in self driving effort. (CNBC)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 1411 stocks rise and 1462 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1508 rise and 1537 fall. The combined a/d line was negative for a second day in a row.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 10 and 20 day moving averages but the Russell remains below its 5 day simple moving average for a second day.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 1/18/19 close with next update on 1/25/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Trading:

Yesterday saw all indexes rebound to close resistance to pivot with the exception of the Russell 2000 that closed pivot to support. Watch the Russell 2000 as it has been a leader of weakness. It broke in late November intraday before the other indexes.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

API Petroleum Data released at 4:30 p.m. EDT and Crude Inventories had a build of 6.55 million barrels. Gasoline built by 3.64 million barrels.

Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and came in last week at 173,700.

December Leading Indicators due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to -0.10% from 0.20%.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico:

The government shutdown enters Day 34.

The World Economic Forum continues in Davos, Switzerland and runs through the rest of the week.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announces its latest interest rate decision at 7:45 a.m. EDT. Press Conference at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call:  FOMX (R&D Day), CTRA (guidance for 2019), 

Sellside Conferences:  CIBC Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference.

Industry Conferences: Semicon Korea.

M&A News & Rumors:

Avista (AVA) and Hydro One (HRNNF) terminate merger agreement previously announced.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Best Upgrade Call of the Day: D.A. Davison analyst is excellent in retail and upgraded Duluth Holdings (DLTH) down from $35 to $20. We like this upgrade.

Worst Downgrade Call of the Day: None of note.

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  XLNX +11%, STM +9%, AZPN +9%, SLM +8%, LRCX +7%, TAL +6%, LUV +5%, AMAT +4%, URI +4%, TER+4%  Losers: GG -11%, URGN -9%, WVE -8%, UMPQ -6%, PTC -6%, CTXS -5%, NCNA -5% 

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