09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

Morning Note


Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/25/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/25/2019 at 7:21 am


01/25/2019 at 7:21 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: The first IPO of the year was up this week, New Forest Energy (NFE) but was not priced.

Secondaries on deck:   AYX CRBP DSGX HEXO IDXG NCNA SMAR priced this morning.

IPO Filings After The Close:  no common stock offerings today.  

Secondary Filings & Financings CRBP CISN common stock.   mixed shelf offering.  CNMD convertible offering priced. BAM price notes.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat:  NSC +0.29 , SIVB +0.26 , OSIS +0.23 , SBUX +0.10 , INTC +0.06 , FHB +0.06 , WAL +0.06 , RMD +0.05 , ALK +0.04 , SBCF +0.03 , ASB +0.02 , CUBI +0.02 , NBHC +0.02 , FII +0.02 , ETFC +0.02 , MRTN +0.02  

Flat: AVT

Missed: ISRG (0.11), WDC (0.05), DFS (0.03), FFIN (0.02)

Positive Guidance Post Earnings: 

Mixed Guidance Post Earnings:  

Negative Guidance Post Earnings: INTC


Stock Repurchase Announcement: 

News After The Close:

Everest Reinsurance (RE) will take a catastrophe loss of $695 million in Q4.

PG&E (PCG) rallies in after hour on report the company not to blame in 2017 California fire.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

This week is a struggle compared to last week. See below.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures Rebounding As Morning Advances

U.S. futures: S&P +20, Dow Jones +178,  NDX +65 and Russell 2000 +10  with fair values SHARPLY HIGHER LESSENING GAINS.  Asia and Europe higher.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude higher and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.64 with yields flat since Thursday morning with the yield at 2.725%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Thursday: Utilities, Technology and Services.

Weakest Sectors Thursday: Healthcare and Consumer Goods.

One Month Winners:  All lead by Conglomerates, Financials, Services, Industrial and Materials.

Three Month Winners: Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Conglomerates and Utilities.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

Today After The Close:  none of note.

Monday Before The Open:  CAT AMG BOH CADE SOGO ARLP OPB of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates:  LEA +0.13 , IBKC +0.08 , HRC +0.04 , ABCB +0.04 , CL +0.01            


Missed Estimates:  ERIC (1.82), NEE (0.05), ABBV (0.03), APD (0.01), DHI (0.01)

Raised Guidance:  

Lowered Guidance:  

Mixed Guidance:  

Rags & Mags:

Top Story:  Roger Stone, advisor to President Trump, is indicted this morning on 7 charges. (NYT)   

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) – Shutdown day 35 sees another push fail, China delegation Monday, U.K. Chancellor of Exchequer resigns and markets higher.

President Trump preparing a draft order to declare a national emergency to fund the wall. (CNN)

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin notes that U.S. and China talks are progressing. (Reuters)

Facebook’s (FB) Mark Zuckerberg writes an Op-ed in The Wall Street Journal defending Facebook. (Business Insider) Link to WSJ Story which is behind a pay wall.

CEOs of the top six U.S. banks to testify before the House in the spring as the Democrats tackle their agenda. (WSJ)

Senator Elizabeth Warren Democrat MA proposes a yearly wealth tax on the richest Americans. (WSJ)

Top Chinese Ministers to arrive in Washington D.C. on Monday. (Bloomberg)

Vodaphone (VOD) will pause installing Huawei equipment. (FT)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 1931 stocks rise and 963 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1882 rise and 1145 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 10 and 20 day moving averages but the Russell and now the S&P 500 remain below their 5 day simple moving average.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 1/18/19 close with next update on 1/25/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


Yesterday saw all indexes rebound to close resistance to pivot. Watch the Russell 2000 as it has been a leader of weakness. It broke in late November intraday before the other indexes.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

Baker Hughes Rig Count due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.


The government shutdown enters Day 35 and at midnight will begin its sixth week.

The World Economic Forum concludes in Davos, Switzerland.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call:  CLI (investor meeting), 

Sellside Conferences:  CIBC Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference.

Industry Conferences: Semicon Korea concludes and the Sundance Film Festival runs through January 30th.

M&A News & Rumors:

Medtronic (MDT) to acquire privately held EPIX Therapeutics no terms disclosed.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Best Downgrade Call of the Day: RMD as they blew the quarter and there are multiple downgrades.

Worst Upgrade Call of the Day: ROK is a problem as industrials are missing numbers.

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  PCG +33%, WDC +9%, OSIS +7%,

Losers: RMD -15%, ASB -9%, CRBP -9%, INTC -6%, AVT -5%, ETFC -5%, ISRG -4%,

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