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Morning Note

News

Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/28/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/28/2019 at 7:41 am

by CAPIS

01/28/2019 at 7:41 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: The first IPO of the year was up last week, New Forest Energy (NFE) but was not priced until after the close, $15. Expect a flood of filings now that the government has reopened.

Secondaries on deck:    BNKL HEXO NCNA to be priced this week.

IPO Filings After The Close:  no common stock offerings today.  

Secondary Filings & Financings common stock.   mixed shelf offering.   convertible offering priced.  GEF CFX  senior notes.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: none of note.

Flat: none of note.

Missed: none of note.

Positive Guidance Post Earnings: 

Mixed Guidance Post Earnings:  

Negative Guidance Post Earnings: 

Dividend Increase: YUM WLKP MPC

Stock Repurchase Announcement: 

News After The Close:

Boeing (BA) awarded a $2.5 billion Navy contract.

President Trump signs continuing resolution to reopen the government through February 15th.

Treasury lifted sanction on Russian En+ Group, UC Rusal and JSC EuroSibEnergo.

Weekend Reading

China talks this week not expected to produce a final deal but will be expanded. (Bloomberg)

White House Chief of Staff notes President Trump will shut down government again if no border security deal. (CBS News)

U.S. is putting pressure on other countries not to use Huawei for 5G. (NYT)

U.S. diplomats to stay in Venezuela for the next 30 days. (The Washington Post)

Moneygram (MGI) considering possible sale. (Reuters)

Deutsche Bank (DB) gets funding from Qatari. (Bloomberg)

Hourly Action This Past Week:

This week is a struggle compared to last week.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures Rebounding As Morning Advances

U.S. futures: S&P -14, Dow Jones -169,  NDX -40 and Russell 2000 -7.70  with fair values SHARPLY HIGHER INCREASING LOSSES.  Asia and Europe lower as well.

Gold and silver up slightly with copper lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.34 with yields lower since Friday morning with the yield at 2.762%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Friday: Materials, Industrials, Technology, Financials and Services.

Weakest Sectors Friday: Utilities.

One Month Winners:  All lead by Conglomerates, Financials, Services, Industrial and Materials.

Three Month Winners: Utilities, Financials and Technology.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Conglomerates and Utilities.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):

Today After The Close:  CE RGA ELS WHR BRO GGG WWD CR CHFC JJSF SSB IBTX WSBC SANM HTLF RMBS AKS ETH of note.

Tuesday Before The Open:  PFE VZ SAP MMM LMT DHR BIIB AGN HCA PHG GLW PCAR ROK NUE HRS LLL DOV AOS PHM PNR AV HOG of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates:   TCF +0.04            

Flat: 

Missed Estimates:  CAT (0.44), ARLP (0.38), CHFC (0.11), BOH (0.05), CADE (0.04), OPB (0.03)

Raised Guidance:  

Lowered Guidance:  CHFC

Mixed Guidance:  

Rags & Mags:

Top Story:  U.S. Government back in action this week. (Reuters)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg)

U.S. and Taliban have agreed to a peace deal. (NYT)

President Trump interviewed by The Wall Street Journal on immigration. (WSJ)

Vale (VALE) faces lawsuits over mining and dam disaster in Brazil. (FT)

Foxconn considers plants being set up in India. (FT)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 2239 stocks rise and 657 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2191 rise and 854 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 5, 10 and 20 day moving averages.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 1/18/19 close with next update on 1/25/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Trading:

Yesterday saw all indexes rebound to close above resistance. Watch the Russell 2000 as it has been a leader of weakness. It broke in late November intraday before the other indexes.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

Treasury auctions of 2 year notes ($40 billion) and 5 year notes ($41 billion) at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Politico:

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call:  INVE (tactical and tech day at Fort Hood) 

Sellside Conferences: Noble Con 15th Financial Capital Markets Annual Investor Conference.

Industry Conferences: Sundance Film Festival, Society of Thoracic Surgeons Annual Meeting,

M&A News & Rumors:

Zayo Group Holdings (ZAYO) rise on rumors that Google (GOOGL) and Century Link (CTL) interested in the company.

Entergis (ENTG) and Versum Materials (VSUM) agree to merge in a merger of equals.

Chemical Financial (CHFC) and TCF Financial (TCF) agree to merge in a merger of equals.

Dropbox (DBX) to acquire HelloSign for $230 million in cash.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Best Upgrade Call of the Day:  SIRI has pulled back yet numbers are getting stronger.

Worst Downgrade Call of the Day: BMO as the stock has already pulled back.

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  ZAYO +5%, AUDC +4%, DRD +4%, MCHX +4%.

Losers: VALE -11%, PCG -3%, TTM -3%.

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