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Morning Note

News

Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/29/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/29/2019 at 7:46 am

by CAPIS

01/29/2019 at 7:46 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: The first IPO of the year was up last week, New Forest Energy (NFE) but was not priced until after the close, $15. Expect a flood of filings now that the government has reopened.

Secondaries on deck: BNKL HEXO NCNA to be priced this week.

IPO Filings After The Close:  no common stock offerings today.  

Secondary Filings & Financings DX MGP common stock.   mixed shelf offering.   convertible offering priced.  TGI senior notes.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: WHR +0.51 , WWD +0.22 , SANM +0.13 , JJSF +0.05 , AKS +0.05 , RMBS +0.02.

Flat: GGG , ETH , NBTB , ELS, RGA

Missed: HTLF (0.08), WSBC (0.01)

Positive Guidance Post Earnings: SANM

Mixed Guidance Post Earnings:  ELS

Negative Guidance Post Earnings: AKS CE CR RMBS  WHR

Dividend Increase: SSB

Stock Repurchase Announcement: 

News After The Close

Head of The Council of Economic Advisors Larry Kudlow sees 3% GDP growth not the 1.6% projected yesterday by the CBO.

Sanmina (SANM) CFO David Anderson to retire to spend more time with family.

Yum Brands (YUM) promotes David Gibbs to COO.

Sandridge Energy (SD) names Paul McKinney as CEO.

U.S. Department of Justice files for extradition of Huawei CFO on charges of spying and IP theft.

House Speaker Pelosi invites President Trump to deliver State of the Union on February 5th.

Acting Attorney General Whitaker says that Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation is “close to wrapping up”.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Sometimes with a big gap down you get decent intraday action which is what we got on Monday.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures 

U.S. futures: S&P +1.75, Dow Jones +45,  NDX +10 and Russell 2000 -0.20  with fair values HIGHER INCREASING LOSSES.  Asia mixed and Europe higher.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.55 with yields higher since Monday morning with the yield at 2.74%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Monday: Conglomerates.

Weakest Sectors Monday: Technology, Materials, Industrials and Conglomerates.

One Month Winners:  All lead by Conglomerates, Financials, Services, Industrial and Materials.

Three Month Winners: Utilities, Financials and Technology.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Conglomerates and Utilities.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):

Today After The Close:  AAPL AMGN SYK CNI ILMN EBAY EQR AMD BXP ALGN TSS MXIM KLAC PFG IQ CHRW IEX JNPR of note.

Wednesday Before The Open:   BABA NVS T BA MCD TMO ANTM ADP GD SIRI IR TROW RCL CHKP BEN HES NDAQ ALLY of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates:  LLL +0.42 , BIIB +0.27 , ROK +0.22 , MTOR +0.20 , DOV +0.14 , AGN +0.14 , XRX +0.12 , CIT +0.10 , AXE +0.08 , HRS +0.04 , FBP +0.04 , GPK +0.04 , MMM +0.03 , PPBI +0.03 , AOS +0.03 , VZ +0.03 , EXTR +0.03 , PHG +0.02 , UMC +0.01 , GLW +0.01 , PNR +0.01 , PFE +0.01 , PHM +0.01 , DHR +0.01 , PII +0.01 , POL +0.01             

Flat: 

Missed Estimates:  LMT (0.38), ALV (0.29), AUO (0.13), HOG (0.13), EXP (0.11), SAP (0.04), EAT (0.01)

Raised Guidance:  DOV  HRS LLL PNR.

Lowered Guidance: MMM AOS ALV PFE.

Mixed Guidance:  AGN BIIB EXTR LMT PII ROK XRX.

Rags & Mags:

Top Story:  Federal Reserve starts a two day meeting. (CNBC)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day  (Bloomberg)

PG&E (PCG) files for Chapter 11. (CNBC)

Record breaking cold to hit the Midwest. (AP)

Harley Davidson (HOG) profits wiped out by tariffs. (Bloomberg)

U.S. and China still have a great deal of work to do on trade to get to an agreement. (WSJ)

Apple (AAPL) bug found in FaceTime. (CNBC)

Apple to fix the bug in Face Time. (BBC)

Apple (AAPL) and Aetna (AET) to partner on healthcare app. (CNBC)

Apple earnings after the close, what to expect. (CNBC)

Tesla (TSLA) has four weeks to see stock rally 21% or pay $920 million on bonds. (Bloomberg)

Cowen in research note believes that Venezueal sanctions will impact refiners and big oil.

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 1253 stocks rise and 1622 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1101 rise and 1969 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 10 and 20 day moving averages. The S&P 500 and Dow are back under their 5 day moving average.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 1/18/19 close with next update on 1/25/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Trading:

Yesterday saw all indexes close below support. Watch the Russell 2000 as it has been a leader of weakness. It broke in late November intraday before the other indexes. This is the second week in a row that we have seen at least one day where all indexes closed below support.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

November S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 4.9% from 5.0%.

January Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 126.1 from 128.10.

Treasury auctions of 7 year Notes ($32 billion)  at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Politico:

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins a two day meeting.

Commerce & Judiciary Committees to hold joint hearing on Sprint (S) & T-Mobile (TMUS) merger February 3rd.

Brexit Ammendment Vote at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: CLR (c call), PRQR (R&D day), 

Sellside Conferences: Noble Con 15th Financial Capital Markets Annual Investor Conference.

Industry Conferences: Sundance Film Festival, Society of Thoracic Surgeons Annual Meeting.

M&A News & Rumors:

Gamestop (GME) intends to pursue a sale of the company.

Sysco (SYY) to buy Waugh Foods, no terms.

Triumph Group (TGI) to sell Triumph Fabricatons to Arlington Capital Partners.

Thermo Fisher (TMO) to sell Anatomical Pathology business to PHC  Holdings for $1.14 billion.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Best Upgrade/Downgrade Call of the Day:  NVDA. UBS upgraded. Needham and Morgan Stanley downgraded. With the guide lower yesterday, who will be right?

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  SANM +21%, MTOR +10%, WWD +8%, XRX +6%, GLW +5%.

Losers: PII -9%, RMBS -8%, HOG -7%, WHR -7%, BRO -6.%, CE -5%.

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