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Morning Note

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Morning Note

"Morning Note – 1/30/19"

posted by CAPIS on 01/30/2019 at 7:45 am

by CAPIS

01/30/2019 at 7:45 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: The first IPO of the year was up last week, New Forest Energy (NFE) but was not priced until after the close, $15. Expect a flood of filings now that the government has reopened.

Secondaries on deck: RWT FHB to be priced this morning.

IPO Filings After The Close:  no common stock offerings today.  

Secondary Filings & Financings  FHB common stock.   LB mixed shelf offering.  NIO senior notes.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: RNR +2.53 , WRB +0.25 , KLAC +0.23 , AMGN +0.14 , CHRW +0.13 , HLI +0.07 , ALGN +0.05 , MRCY +0.05 , IEX +0.04 , HI +0.04 , RHI +0.04 , SYK +0.03 , IPHI +0.03 , MKSI +0.03 , EBAY +0.03 , JNPR +0.02 , CNI +0.02 , COHR +0.02 , AX +0.01 , TSS +0.01 , AAPL +0.01.

 Flat: EGHT, AMD, HA

Missed: MSTR (0.71), PFG (0.18), WNC (0.06), ILMN (0.04), NATI (0.02), MXIM (0.02), EQR (0.01), MITK (0.01).

Positive Guidance Post Earnings: MRCY.

Mixed Guidance Post Earnings:  

Negative Guidance Post Earnings: AAPL ALGN AMD AMGN JNPR MSTR MXIM  NATI SIMO.

Dividend Increase: NATI CNI FHN JNPR MDC.

Stock Repurchase Announcement: CNI FHN  JNPR SIRI.

News After The Close

Apple (AAPL) sets the tone in after hours as it rises 6% on beat by $0.01 and despite guiding lower in Q2.

Treasury Undersecretary David Malpass in consideration to run the World Bank.

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Despite two down days the intraday action is decent. Weakness early and strength late.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures 

U.S. futures: S&P +9.75, Dow Jones +199,  NDX +51.75 and Russell 2000 +3.70  with fair values LOWER ADDING TO GAIN.  Asia mixed and Europe mixed.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.66 with yields lower since Tuesday morning with the yield at 2.72%. Prices as of 8:35 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Tuesday: Industrials, Materials, Utilities and Healthcare.

Weakest Sectors Tuesday: Technology and Services.

One Month Winners:  All lead by Conglomerates, Financials, Services, Industrial and Materials.

Three Month Winners: Utilities, Financials and Industrials.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):

Today After The Close:   MSFT FB V PYPL QCOM MDLZ QCOM TSLA NOW ESS AMP WYNN HOLX AFG FICO CREE MUR of note.

Thursday Before The Open: MA DWDP  UPS MO GE COP CHTR CELG EPD RTN NOC MMC BAX NOK SHW VLO of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: EVR +1.75 , BA +0.93 , BABA +0.68 , OSK +0.65 , ANTM +0.24 , ADP +0.16 , ALLY +0.09 , GD +0.08 , MCD +.08, HES +0.07 , TMO +0.07 , MKTX +0.05 , CHKP +0.05 , NTCT +0.05 , IR +0.03 , T +0.02 , AVY +0.02 , PB +0.01.         

Flat:  SIRI, NYCB, AXTA, TUP.

Missed Estimates:  GLOP (0.18), SMG (0.15), LFUS (0.13), TROW (0.12), IVZ (0.11), SC (0.08), SLAB (0.03), NVS (0.02), NDAQ (0.01).

Raised Guidance:  ANTM BA OSK.

Lowered Guidance: LFUS SLAB.

Mixed Guidance:  ADP AXTA NTCT TUP.

Rags & Mags:

Top Story:  China U.S. resume trade talks.

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) – Fed day, trade talks underway, Apple saves tech, overseas quiet and what is up rest of day.

Prime Minister Theresa May will renegotiate Brexit deal with the European Union. (WSJ)

Certain members of The Trump Administration under pressure to cut a trade deal with China. (WSJ)

China seeks to approve a foreign investment law. (FT)

Foxconn reconsidering making LCD panels at Wisconsin plant. (Reuters)

European Central Bank stimulus could turn into the never ending story. (Bloomberg)

We are in the age of weather extremes. (NYT)

20 tons of gold from Venezuela set to go Russia? (Bloomberg)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 1618 stocks rise and 1245 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1363 rise and 1681 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 10 and 20 day moving averages. The S&P 500 and Dow are back under their 5 day moving average.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 1/18/19 close with next update on 1/25/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Trading:

Yesterday was a mixed day of trading and no indexes got below support which is a plus.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

API Petroelum Data sees Crude Oil build 2.098 million barrels and Gasoline build by 2.15 million barrels.

Weekly Mortgage Applications fell -3% week over week.

ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 170,000.

December Pending Home Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 0.7% from -0.7%.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico:

The latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT with press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

Trade talks with the U.S. and China get underway today.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call:none of note.

Sellside Conferences: FIG Partners CEO Forum with RBB CFCX HAFC HOPE PMBC FCBP.

Industry Conferences: Sundance Film Festival.

M&A News & Rumors:

Intel (INTC) is said to have made a $6 billion bid for Mellanox (MLNX). (Calcalist)

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Best Upgrade/Downgrade Call of the Day:  SYF as stock is still well of 2018 high at $40.59.

Worst Upgrade/Downgrade Call of the Day: JNPR as stock is down sharply in pre-market.

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  MLNX +13%, CONN +11%, AMD +9%,  BA +7%,VALE +5%, AAPL +5%.

Losers: EGHT -15%, JNPR -11%, ALGN -7%, MSTR -6%, COHR -6%, ILMN -5%

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