09.30.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

Morning Note


Morning Note

"Morning Note -2/1/19"

posted by CAPIS on 02/01/2019 at 7:34 am


02/01/2019 at 7:34 am

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: The first IPO of the year was New Forest Energy (NFE) was priced at $14 and closed at $13.07, not a great start to the IPO market. Expect a flood of filings now that the government has reopened. Gores Metropoulus (GMHIU) to be priced today at $10.00 a share.

Secondaries on deck: GPMT LPTX MLSS NNDM to be priced this morning.

IPO Filings After The Close:  no common stock offerings today.  

Announcements For Secondary Filings & FinancingsGPMT EXPI  common stock offering.  REGI convertibles.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat:  DECK +1.30,  ESL +0.56,  AMZN +0.53,  SIGI +0.27,  MCK +0.24,  SKYW +0.21,  PFPT +0.16, POST +0.15,  OTEX +0.08,  AFL +0.08,  MOD +0.08, KLIC +0.06, NFG +0.06, SYMC +0.05,  YUMC +0.04,  PKI +0.02,  CY +0.02,  WAIR +0.01,  EXPO +0.01,  AJG +0.01,  CPT +0.01 MTX +0.01.


Missed: EMN (0.20), FBHS (0.08), MATW (0.05), CLS (0.01), EPAY (0.01), LPLA (0.01).

Positive Guidance Post Earnings:  

Mixed Guidance Post Earnings:  CPT CLS DECK EW ENVA FBHS SYMC.

Negative Guidance Post Earnings:  AMZN CY KLIC.

Dividend Increase: PII USDP INVH. 

Special Dividend: TLYS.

Stock Repurchase Announcement:  REGI KLIC.

Stock Split: KOF.

News After The Close

President Trump will meet with President Xi at least once if not twice before a trade deal. (CNBC)

Cross Country (CCRN) names William J. Burns CFO.

Health Human Services proposes rule to lower prescription prices and out of pocket costs by encouraging manufacturers to pass discounts directly to patients.

Hewlett Packard (HPE) notes that Meg Whitman will not stand for re-election to the Board.

Facebook (FB) subject to more state probes over privacy issues. (Bloomberg)

Hourly Action This Past Week:

Despite two down days (Monday and Tuesday) the intraday action is decent. The only negative hour is 9:30 to 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures 

U.S. futures: S&P -5.75, Dow Jones -15,  NDX -46.25 and Russell 2000 -1.60  with fair values LOWER HELPING THE OPEN.  Asia and Europe mixed.

Gold up slightly with silver and copper lower. WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 122.50 with yields higher since Wednesday morning with the yield at 2.62%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Thursday: All lead by Utilities, Technology, Conglomerates, Consumer Goods and Healthcare.

Weakest Sectors Thursday: None of note.

One Month Winners:  All lead by Conglomerates, Financials, Services, Industrial, Technology and Materials.

Three Month Winners: Financials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities and Services.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities and Conglomerates.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials, Materials, Technology and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):

Today After The Close:    none of note.

Friday Before The Open:  SYY ALXN CLX ON SAIA MTSC BZH of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates:  SNE +146.83, TAK +52.98, MSG +0.64, XOM +0.35, BAH +0.13, SF +0.10, ROP +0.09, SPR +0.07, IDXX +0.07, KKR +0.06, OSB +0.06, AON +0.03, HON +0.02, ZBH +0.01, SOGO +0.01, JCI +0.01, MRK +0.01. 

Flat: VRTS, SPG.

Missed Estimates: HMC (3.22), LYB (0.52), CYOU (0.30), SOHU (0.23), SBSI (0.08), CI (0.03), MINI (0.03), D (0.02), WETF (0.02), WY (0.02).

Still to Report: 

Raised Guidance:  

Lowered Guidance: CYOU CI SPG SOGO SNE.

Mixed Guidance:  BAH HMC HON ROP SOHU SPR.

Rags & Mags:

Top Story:  President Trump interviewed by The New York Times. (NYT)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) – Jobs Friday, trade progress with China, EU data slows, markets quiet and additional economic data after jobs.

New Jersey Senator Corey Booker announces he will run for president in 2020 joining a crowded field seeking to unseed President Trump. (CNBC)

January saw the S&P 500 have its best start since 1989 when George H.W. Bush was president. The S&P 500 rose 7.9% over 7.1% in 1989. (Bloomberg)

As January goes, so goes the year. 80% chance of up 2019. (CNBC)

Job market was strong in January but government shutdown could have impacted numbers. (CNBC)

China promises to buy more U.S. Goods and sees progress. (Bloomberg)

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund lost $1.43 trillion in 2018. (Bloomberg)

Is Venezuela’s pile of gold headed to Dubai? (Bloomberg)

Nintendo (NTDOY) to reach a smaller Switch. (The Verge)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 2367 stocks rise and 593 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2146 rise and 931 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 5,10 and 20 day moving averages.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 1/25/19 close with next update on 2/1/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.


Yesterday was a strong day of trading as the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 closed above resistance. The Dow was weak early on and could not get above resistance.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. 

Economic & Related:

January Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to come in at 160,000 from 312,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.9%.

January ISM Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 53.6 from 54.1.

January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is also due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 90.7 which is where it was last month.

November Construction Spending is also due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.4% from 0.8%.


Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: ONCS (c call).

Sellside Conferences: Jefferies Annual Winter Restaurant, Food Services, Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Summit.

Industry Conferences: Annual Pulmonary Vascular Research Institute World Congress.

M&A News & Rumors:

None of note today.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  SYMC +8%, DGII +6%, CY +5%.

Losers: CYOU -12%, CORT -8%, EPAY -8%, TECK -8%, AMZN -5%.


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