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Morning Note

"Morning Note – 3/11/19"

posted by CAPIS on 03/11/2019 at 7:37 am

by CAPIS

03/11/2019 at 7:37 am

Not A Fun Fact: The S&P 500 is now lower 8 of the last 9 trading days. In March, lower 5 of the first six trading days.

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck This Week: None of note this week. Next week Lyft. Levi Strauss sets its range $14 to $16.

IPOs on deck for Today: None of note.

Secondaries on deck: None of note.

IPO Filings Announced After The Close:  None filed today to go public.

Announcements For Secondary Filings & Financings:    HSTM common stock offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: None of note.

Missed: None of note.

News After The Close:

Boeing (BA) confirms a 737 Max crashed in Ethiopia after taking off.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was interviewed on 60 Minutes and noted Fed is in “wait and see” mode.

Stock Repurchase: MDT KFRC

Dividend Increases: DHR 

10K Delays: EVC

Index Changes: XPO and CFX to join S&P 400 Mid Cap Index. DO and BIG to join S&P 600 Small Cap Index.

Notable Recent Insider Transactions Since 3/8: 

Hourly Action This Past Week:

This is the worst week of the year for intraday action. Ugly early and then attempts to rally late in the day.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures bottomed at 9:00 p.m. EDT and rallied to up a couple points. Dow futures weak on BA drop of -10%.

U.S. futures: S&P +2.50, Dow Jones -188, NDX +16 and Russell 2000 -0.80 with fair values LOWER ADDING TO GAINS.  Asia and Europe higher to mixed, click through for details by country.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 122.58 with yields higher since Friday morning with the yield at 2.652% from 2.639%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EST.

Top Sectors Friday: Utilities.

Weakest Sectors Friday: All others lead by Conglomerates, Materials and Services to the downside.

One Month Winners: Conglomerates, Utilities, Industrial Goods, Services and Technology.

Three Month Winners: Conglomerates, Industrials, Technology and Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Utilities and now Conglomerates.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Conglomerates, Healthcare and Services.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Services, Technology, Materials and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):

Today After The Close: ADT COUP SFIX KRO AMPH PETQ AVD OXFD ASNA FRTA.

Tuesday Before The Open: MOMO GDS DKS IPI KEYW.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: None of note.

Missed Estimates: None of note.

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: Boeing (BA) is seeing several countries ground the 737 Max including China and Indonesia.  (Bloomberg)

5 Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day – (Bloomberg).  Powell interview. Boeing at risk. Oil squeeze. Markets rebound. Brexit deadlock.

OPEC to be squeezed by U.S. shale until mid 2020s. (Bloomberg)

Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 1288 stocks rise and 1557 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw  rise and 1417 fall. The 10 day moving average (DMA) of the  advance/decline is negative. This needs to be watched.

The SP 500 is below its 50 and 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is below  its 50 day simple moving average and 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is below its 50 but still above 200 day simple moving average. The Dow and the S&P 500 are below their  20 day moving averages. The Russell 2000 is back below its 5, 10 and 20 day moving average. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are below their 5, 10 and 20 day moving averages.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69 and last Friday the model is back to cash. For a move to cash from buy, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row below -200 which happened with Thursday’s close.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD 88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 3/1/19 close with next update on 3/8/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Trading:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Yesterday was another struggle all closing pivot to support. A review of the past two weeks shows deterioration.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research

The Value Lines may be accessed via Bloomberg. For a free trial if you are a Bloomberg user go to APPS: ERLA <GO>

Economic & Related:

January Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to remain negative at -0.1% from -1.20%.

$38 billion of 3 year notes to be auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

President Trump has a quiet day with lunch with the Vice President and in the afternoon receives his latest intelligence briefing.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: BLMN (investor day), DAN (investor day).

Sellside Conferences: Cowen Annual Healthcare Conference. Deutsche Bank dbaccess Annual Media, Internet and Telecom Conference.

Industry Conferences: 

M&A News & Rumors:

Nvidia (NVDA) to buy Mellanox (MLNX) for $125 in cash.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners: MLNX +11%, CATB +10%, TENX +12%, JKS +4%, SMI +4%, FEYE +4%.

Losers: BA -9%, DRD -6%, LUV -3%, NVDA -2%.

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