09.30.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

Morning Note


Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note -7/11/19 Day Two Of Powell Testimony"

posted by CAPIS on 07/11/2019 at 7:44 am


07/11/2019 at 7:44 am

Corporate Actions

IPOs on deck for Today: 

Secondaries on deck for Today: EYEN SNSS WAAS

Notes Priced: None of note.

Common Stock filings: MGY  

Mixed Shelf Offerings filed: LULU

Convertible Offering Files: 

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: BBBY +0.04, AIR +0.02 

Flat: None of note.

Missed: PSMT -0.04 

News After The Close:

Vishay (VSH) lowers Q2 guidance on weaker demand.

Medtronic (MDT) confirms upper end of guidance.

Invesco (IVZ) sees assets grow to $1.2 trillion up +3.3%

Artisan Partners Asset Mgmt (APAM) sees assets rise to $113.8 billion from $106,9 billion in May.

Costco (CSCO) June Comp Sales +5.4%, e-commerce +15.4% and Comp Sales in May were +4.2%and +9.7% in June of 2018.

Brinker International (EAT) buys 116 franchised Chili’s, accretive to 2020.

Deere & Co (DE) released June Sales and they were mixed.

Dividend Increases: JBSS (special dividend of $2.40) HFBL AM FAST DAL

Stock Repurchases: AEO 

What’s Happening This Morning: Going forward the futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. Futures just lost ground on CPI and Jobless Claims data.

U.S. futures: S&P +4, Dow Jones +92, NDX +7  and Russell 2000 +3 with fair values lower.  Asia and Europe mixed, click through for details by country.

Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher . Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro,Pound and the Yen. US 10 year Treasury price at $127.41 from  $126.95 from with yields at  2.096%. Prices as of 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Wednesday: Materials, Technology, and Consumer Goods.

Negative Sectors On Wednesday: Conglomerates and Industrials.

One Month Winners: Technology, Services and Consumer Goods.

Three Month Winners: Consumer Goods, Financials, Services, and Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Services, Conglomerates, Technology and Conglomerates.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Services, Healthcare and Technology.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials, Technology and Consumer Goods.

Hourly Action This  Week:

So far this week there are no negative  hours. Updated through Wednesday close.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close: None of note.

Friday Before The Open: INFY.    

Earnings This Morning Of Note 

Beat: DAL +0.07 of note.

Flat: None of note.

Missed: FAST (-0.01)

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story: France approves a digital tax on U.S. tech companies. (CNBC)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day  (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell heads to the Senate for day two of testimony.

Trump Administration concerned over changes to Chinese negotiating team. (The Washington Post)

Iranian ships attempted to block a U.K. tanker. (WSJ)

Delta (DAL) raised profit outlook and increased dividend. (CNBC)

OPEC sees lower demand. (CNBC)

Data Points

The S&P 500 and S&P 100 indexes moved back above their 5 day moving averages.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line has improved dramatically and moved to a buy on 6/13. Updated through 7/10/19 close. The buy remains intact. Year to date model up 12.59% on the S&P 500. 3 buy signals and 3 cash signals in 2019.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) is no longer in cash and moved to invested on 6/13/19.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD  71% (+2% week over week) of stocks are higher and 29% are lower. Updated 7/5/19 close with next update on 7/12/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through Tuesday close. This week has seen intraday action struggle.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research

The Value Lines may be accessed via Bloomberg. For a free trial if you are a Bloomberg user go to APPS CS:ERLA

Economic & Related:

June CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.0% from 0.1%. Came in at 0.1%. Core +0.3%

The European Central Bank (ECB) releases its latest minutes.

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Came in at 209,000 down 13,200.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest out after the close and NYSE rose 1.12% and NASDAQ 1.88%.

$16 Billion of 30 Year Treasuries are auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EDT.


President Trump to hold social media summit at 12:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate today in the second day of his semiannual Humphrey Hawkins testimony. Begins at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Governor Quarles speaks at 3:00 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:  

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call:  BKE CATO (monthly sales call)

Sellside Conferences:  None of note.

Industry Conferences:   BIO World Congress on Industrial Biotech & Ag 2019 (through 7/11). Semicon West (through 7/11).

M&A Activity

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Early Morning Gap Up/Down:

Gap Higher: DVAX +9%, SLP +7%, BKE +6%, AIR +7%, CI +5%, CVS +5%.

Gap Lower:  PSMT -9%, VSH -5%, FAST -5%, GOL -4%, BBBY -4%.


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