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08.21.2019 18 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and International Summary (8)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 7/30/19 What’s Not In Your Wallet Thanks To Capital One (COF)"

posted by CAPIS on 07/30/2019 at 7:43 am

by CAPIS

07/30/2019 at 7:43 am

Corporate Actions 

IPOs on deck: Three IPOs are on deck for this week.

Secondaries on deck: CMO HLI SGBX

Notes Priced: None of note.

Common Stock filings: CMO BYND HLI EIX

Mixed Shelf Offerings filed: BDSI

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed:

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close: (>+.05 OR <-.01)

Beat: RE +1.38 APPF +.54 SBAC +.36 NBIX +.34 HTLF +.31 OMF +.28 AKS +.15 NXPI +.13 PI +.12 JJSF +.08 NOV +.08 RNG +.05 SANM +.05  of note.

Flat:

Missed:  CRSP -.84 NBR -.39 RMBS -.20 MDR -.16 BYND -.16 SILK -.15 TEX -.13  RGA -.11 DISH -.04 VRNS -.02 FRAC -.01 of note.

Still to Report:  

News After The Close:

Capital One (COF) reports over 100 million people had their personal information stolen.

iRadimed (IRMD) names Leslie McDonnell as President and CEO.

Contura Energy (CTRA) names David Stetson CEO.

Lyft (LYFT) COO Jon McNeill left the company today.

Thor Industries (THO) names Andy Graves Chairman of the Board as of 8/1.

Restoration Hardware (RH) raises Q2 and 2019 revenue and earnings guidance.

Granite Construction (GVA) warns for Q2.

Varonis Systems (VRNS) lowers Q3 and 2019.

Leggett & Platt (LEG) lowers guidance after earnings reported.

Stock Repurchase: CVBF ZBRA DHI MO

Dividend Increase: NGHC

What’s Happening This Morning: Going forward the futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.  Futures have been dropping all morning.

U.S. futures: S&P -15, Dow Jones -97, NDX -62  and Russell 2000 -8.08 with fair values mixed. Asia mixed  and Europe lower, click through for details by country.

Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude Oil higher and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is flat. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $127.44 from $127.44 with yields at 2.053% from 2.056%. Prices as of 8:35 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Monday: Consumer Goods, Conglomerates and Utilities.

Negative Sectors On Monday: Financials, Services and Technology.

One Month Winners: Technology, Services and Consumer Goods.

Three Month Winners: Healthcare, Utilities and Consumer Goods.

Six Month Winners: Technology, Services and Consumer Goods.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Services and Technology.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials, Technology and Consumer Goods.

Hourly Action This  Week:

Updated through Monday close. Yesterday was a struggle.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close: AAPL AMGN GILD MDLZ PSA APC AMD ALL BIDU EQR OKE EA VRSK DLR BXP CNF MXIM YUMC EXR AKAM PAYC CHRW FMR of  note.

Wednesday Before The Open: GE AMT ADP CME EPD D SO SPG LHX MCO HUM JCI SPOT WLTW APTV FCAU ETR CHD HES CDW GRMN BHGE TAP NI BG SPR of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note  (>+.10 OR <-.01)

Beat: SNE +29.42 CEQP +2.42 AER +.82 IT +.27 INCY +.25  CELG +.25 DHI +.21 EME +.16 HUBB +.15  WCG +.15  MRK +.14 LGND +.13 ZBRA +.13  RL +.11 XRX +.10.

Flat:  None of note.

Missed: EQM -.48 DORM -.45 CMI -.17 SXC -.13 PAG -.13 MLM -.11 BERY -.11 CNX -.08 MMYT -.07 FMS -.07  MGLN -.06 CVLT -.04 PEG -.02 COP -.02  AOS -.02 HUN -.01.

Yet To Report: 

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story:  Capital One (COF) breach affects up to 100 million of its applications. (CNBC)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day  (Bloomberg)

Trump Administration pushing for hospitals to post negotiated insurance rates. (Bloomberg)

Netflix (NFLX) has spent $200 million on new films. (WSJ)

President Trump tweets that China is not buying ag products since agreed to. (Twitter)

Preview of tonight’s Democratic Debate. (CNN)

Data Points

No changes of note yesterday.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line improved dramatically and moved to a buy on 6/13. Updated through 7/25/19 close. The buy remains intact but is starting to fade. Year to date model up 13.56% on the S&P 500. 3 buy signals and 3 cash signals in 2019. The current buy is up 4.29%.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD  69% (-2% week over week) of stocks are higher and 31% are lower. Updated 7/26/19 close with next update on 8/2/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through Monday close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research

The Value Lines may be accessed via Bloomberg. For a free trial if you are a Bloomberg user go to APPS CS:ERLA

Economic & Related:

June Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.4% from 0.5%.

July Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 125.5 from 121.5.

June Pending Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 1.0% from 1.1%.

API Weekly Petroleum Institute is out with its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

President Trump will head to Williamsburg, VA and arrives at the Jamestown Settlement Museum at 10:55 a.m.

A U.S. Delegation lead by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is in Shanghai meeting with Chinese officials.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is out with its latest decision.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins a two day meeting.

Democratic Party Presidential Debates Night 1 start at 9:00 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:   

Company Analyst Meetings and Conference Calls:  None of note.

Sellside Conferences:  Keefe Bruyette & Woods Community Bank Investor Conference. Bank of America Merchant Services Joint Venture Discussion. Sprott Natural Resources Symposium.

Industry Conferences:  American Society of Retinal Specialists Annual Meeting (through 7/30). American Heart Association Basic Cardiovascular Sciences Scientific Session 2019 (through 8/1).

M&A Activity:

Wyndham Destinations (WYND) sells Wyndham Vacation Rentals to Vacasa for $162 million.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Early Morning Gap Up/Down: (>5% or <-5%)

Gap Higher: RNG +13%, MEDP +10%, NBIX +9%, VRNS +8%, TREX +8%, CHGG +6%, LDOS +6%, OMF +5%, QTS +5%.

Gap Lower: MDR -33%, SSNC -18%, BYND -13%, TEX -13%, RMBS -9%, PI -8%, TACO -8%, BDSI -7%, NXPI -7%, TBI -6%, NBR -5%, VNO -5%, CGNX -5%.

About the Author

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