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08.21.2019 18 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and International Summary (8)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 7/31/19 Federal Reserve Announcement & Press Conference Will Drive Trading"

posted by CAPIS on 07/31/2019 at 7:40 am

by CAPIS

07/31/2019 at 7:40 am

Corporate Actions 

IPOs on deck: WiMi Hologram (WIMI) was on deck for today but now tomorrow.

Secondaries on deck: 

Notes Priced: None of note.

Common Stock filings: ATEC ORC BORR CHTR EIX.

Mixed Shelf Offerings filed: 

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed:

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close: (>+.05 OR <-.01)

Beat:  HY +.73 ALL +.63  UIS +.61 AMGN +.39 MOH +.36 KAI +.30 LNDC +.23 MX +.21 CINF +.20 HA +.15 MC +.14 GNW +.13 RRD +.12 SYKE +.11 GILD +.11 IRWD +.11 BLKB +.10 NCR +.09 BEAT +.09 QUAD +.08 YUMC +.08 AAPL +.08 NUVA +.07 AKAM +.07  MGRC +.06 of note.

Flat: None of note.

Missed: MSTR -.35 EXP -.21 WES -.16 BID -.11 TWOU -.08 ADSW -.08 of note.

Still to Report:  

News After The Close:

Maxim Integrated (MXIM) names Brian C. White as CFO.

A10 Networks (ATEN) CEO Lee Chen resigns on conference call.

President Trump is monitoring the build up  of Chinese forces on the Hong Kong Border. (Bloomberg)

North Korea fires more projectiles according to CNN. (CNN)

Levi Strauss (LEVI) interviewed on CNBC by Jim Cramer.

Stock Repurchase:  EAF ALGN

Dividend Increase: 

What’s Happening This Morning: Going forward the futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.  

U.S. futures: S&P +4, Dow Jones +69, NDX +32  and Russell 2000 +2.40 with fair values mixed. Asia mixed  and Europe lower, click through for details by country.

Gold higher, silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is flat vs Euro, flat vs Pound and flat vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $127.45 from $127.44 with yields at 2.049% from 2.053%. Prices as of 8:35 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Conglomerates, Industrial Goods and Basic Materials.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Technology, Utilities, Services and Healthcare.

One Month Winners: Technology, Services and Consumer Goods.

Three Month Winners: Healthcare, Utilities and Consumer Goods.

Six Month Winners: Technology, Services and Consumer Goods.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Services and Technology.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials, Technology and Consumer Goods.

Hourly Action This  Week:

Updated through Tuesday close. There are no negative hours so far this week.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close: QCOM MET VRTX PRU EQIX OXY CTSH WELL S LRCX WMB AVB MCK SLF ES AWK TWLO CXO ATUS WDC HCP TS DXCMof  note.

Thursday Before The Open: VZ CI SPGI GM AGN ICE TRP EXC BCE MPC SHOP TRI YUM TRI YUM XEL CNQ IDXX BLL MPLX ADM PH CLX MSCI K DISH ABC MT  of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note  (>+.10 OR <-.05)

Beat: BG +1.19 UTHR +.89 CG +.86 HUM +.78 AMCX +.65 SMG +.37 AMT +.27 LHX +.25 MTOR +.22 APTV +.19 GRMN +.15 BTU +.13 STRA +.12 NLSN +.11 FSS +.09 CDW +.08 CRL +.08 SO +.08 WNC +.07 SPR +.07 MCO +.06.

Flat:  None of note.

Missed: TKR -.17 LXRX -.16 SITE -.14 DIN -.13 TAP -.13 SPOT -.08 EAF -.06 MGPI -.06.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story: What to watch at the Federal Reserve announcement and press conference. (NYT)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day  (Bloomberg)

Top takeaways from last night’s Democratic Debates in Detroit. (CNN)

Apple (AAPL) iPhone sales fell 12% in the latest quarter but was better than  drop of 17% in Q1. (CNN)

Boris Johnson and Brexit send the pound lower. (NYT)

U.S. and China Trade Talks end with little progress. (Bloomberg)

FAA knew that their was a risk to the Boeing (BA) Max after first crash. (WSJ)

Trump Administration could decide on Huawei licensing by next week. (Reuters)

Nielsen (NLSN) will sell off units piece by piece after no sale. (NY Post)

Data Points

Several indexes broke their 5 day moving average.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line improved dramatically and moved to a buy on 6/13. Updated through 7/25/19 close. The buy remains intact but is starting to fade. Year to date model up 13.29% on the S&P 500. 3 buy signals and 3 cash signals in 2019. The current buy is up 4.29%.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD  69% (-2% week over week) of stocks are higher and 31% are lower. Updated 7/26/19 close with next update on 8/2/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through Tuesday close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research

The Value Lines may be accessed via Bloomberg. For a free trial if you are a Bloomberg user go to APPS CS:ERLA

Economic & Related:

API Weekly Petroleum Institute was supposed to be out with its weekly data at 4:30 p.m. EDT yesterday but we have not seen it.

July ADP Payroll Report came out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and was expected to improve to 150,000 from 102,000. Came in at 156,000.

July Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 50.5 from 49.7.

June Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.4% from -0.80%.

The latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Announcement is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT and then the press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Thursday, August 1

Geopolitical:

President Trump will meet with the President of Mongolia today starting at 1:45 p.m. EDT.

A U.S. Delegation lead by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is in Shanghai meeting with Chinese officials.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes a two day meeting with the latest rate decision announcement at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Press conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

Democratic Party Presidential Debates Night 2 start at 9:00 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:   

Company Analyst Meetings and Conference Calls:  ACER (conference call). MYL (Investor Day)

Sellside Conferences:  Keefe Bruyette & Woods Community Bank Investor Conference (through today). Bank of America Merchant Services Joint Venture Discussion. Sprott Natural Resources Symposium (through 8/2). Credit Suisse Mid Summer LatAm Conference (through 8/1).

Industry Conferences:  American Heart Association Basic Cardiovascular Sciences Scientific Session 2019 (through 8/1).

M&A Activity:

Arch Capital (ACGL) to buy Barbican Group Holdings Limited, no terms.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Early Morning Gap Up/Down: (>5% or <-5%)

Gap Higher:

PES +27%, RRD +17%, WKHS +16%, UIS +15%, ENPH +14%, MX +13%, LSCC +10%, MRTX +9%, BEAT +8%, NCR +8%, NUVA +8%, AMRN +7%, ATEN +6%, EA +6%, MOH +6%, PAYC +5%, SPWR +5%.

Gap Lower:

TTOO -34%, TWOU -28%, FEYE -15%, TENB -11%, ATEC -8%, ORC -6%, GRPN -6%, AMD -5%, MKSI -5%, SIMO -4.7%. 

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