09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

Morning Note


Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 8/2/19 President Trump To Talk About EU Trade at 1:45 P.M. EDT"

posted by CAPIS on 08/02/2019 at 7:38 am


08/02/2019 at 7:38 am

Must See TV- Interview With Steve Bannon on CNBC. Calls for potential Marshall Law in Hong Kong. (CNBC)

Corporate Actions 

IPOs on deck: No IPOs to be priced today.

Secondaries on deck: AGRX CORV OBLN VAPO of note.

Notes Priced: FCX  of note.

Common Stock filings: RPAY

Mixed Shelf Offerings filed: KURA NRZ WMS AROC

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close: (>+.05 OR <-.05)

Beat: PBA +.68, ACOR +.51, MTZ +.48, OLED +.45, SCPL +.35, XOG +.29, TNDM +.28, ANET +.24, XPO +.23, BIO +.23, QRVO +.21, BZH +.21, TMST +.20, HIG +.19, NE +.12, DLB +.11, DVA +.11, MSI +.09, MTD +.08, FTNT +.08, X +.06 of note.

Flat: None of note.

Missed: FLR -4.46, SGMS -.85, CPS -.65, BLUE -.48, GDDY -.23, FSLR -.20, CC -.18, USM -.09, BMRN -.09, ETSY -.07, POST -.06, HLF -.06 of note.

Still to Report:  

News After The Close:

President Trump threatens to take tariffs up to 25% on the final $300 billion of Chinese goods.

North Korea fires more missiles. President Trump says U.S. will not react.

Department of Defense will review Amazon (AMZN) bid after President Trump critcizes. (The

President Trump says considering a naval blockade of Venezuela. (CNBC)

Career Education (CECO) announced settlement with the FTC.

Stock Repurchase:  WIFI TDC.


What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.  

U.S. futures: S&P -10, Dow Jones -40, NDX -50  and Russell 2000 -9.16 with fair values higher. Asia and Europe sharply lower, click through for details by country.

Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $129.03 from $127.33 with yields at 1.842% from 2.026%. Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Thursday: Utilities.

Negative Sectors On Thursday: Industrial Goods, Materials, Services and Consumer Goods.

One Month Winners: Technology, Services and Consumer Goods.

Three Month Winners: Healthcare, Utilities and Consumer Goods.

Six Month Winners: Technology, Services and Consumer Goods.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Services and Technology.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials, Technology and Consumer Goods.

Hourly Action This  Week:

Updated through Thursday close. Several hours turned negative this week.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close:   OHI USM TDS CBPO of  note.


Earnings This Morning Of Note  (>+.10 OR <-.05)

Beat: IMO 0.82, OPI +.27, GVA +.021, SEE +.16, FTS +.10, NWL +.09, ARNC +.08, CNK +.08, ESNT +.08, HMSY +.08, CBOE +.06, IMGN +.06, MGI +.05,WOW +.05.

Flat:  None of note.

Missed: MNTA -.73, POR -.22, LYB -.14, XOM -.12, SRE -.08, WPC -.06, AEE -.05, HE -.04, TU .03, AXL -.02. 

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story: Trade issues are now front and center with China followup key for today and Europe at 1:45 p.m. EDT (see geopolitical)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day  (Bloomberg)

China threatens countermeasures to Trump tariff threats yesterday. (CNBC)

Japan removes South Korea off its list of trusted trade partners. (BBC)

U.S. withdraws from INF Nuclear Treaty with Russia. (CNN)

President Trump may pull thousands of U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. (The Washington Post)

Boeing (BA) will change out 737 Max software. (Reuters)

FTC looking at Facebook (FB) M&A deals. (WSJ)

Data Points

Several more indexes broke various moving averages.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line improved dramatically and moved to a buy on 6/13. Updated through 7/25/19 close. The buy remains intact but is starting to fade. Year to date model up 11.22% on the S&P 500. 3 buy signals and 3 cash signals in 2019. The current buy is up 2.55%.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD  69% (-2% week over week) of stocks are higher and 31% are lower. Updated 7/26/19 close with next update on 8/2/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through Wednesday close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research

The Value Lines may be accessed via Bloomberg. For a free trial if you are a Bloomberg user go to APPS CS:ERLA

Economic & Related:

July Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to drop to 160,000 from 224,000.

June Factory Orders is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 0.8% from -0.7%.

July University of Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT an is expected to improve to 98.6 from 98.2.


President Trump will make announcement on European Union trade at 1:45 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:   

Company Analyst Meetings and Conference Calls:  IBM (Investor Briefing)

Sellside Conferences: Sprott Natural Resources Symposium (through 8/2). 

Industry Conferences:  None of note.

M&A Activity:

Square (SQ) sells Caviar to Door Dash for $410 million in cash.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Early Morning Gap Up/Down: (>5% or <-5%)

Gap Higher:

APHA +31%, CLDR +186%, PINS +158%, SVMK +12%, FTNT +12%, TNDM +11%, SCPL +11%, BL +11%, MTZ +10%, CATM +10%, NWL +9%, OLED +8%, FND +7%, CORT +7%, FTAI +7%, CDNA +7%, ZIXI +7%, OGI +6%, ACB +6%, CERS +6%, GPRO+5%, RDFN +5%.

Gap Lower:

GLUU -28%, NTAP -19%, TUSK -16%, FLR -15%, FLDM -11%, SGMS -11%, PSTG -10%, IOVA -10%, CC -9%, CRC -8%, SQ -8%, CBLK -8%, OTEX -8%, HLF -7%, MGI -6%, OEC -5%. 

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