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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note -12/4/19 Trade Talks Now Viewed As Progressing. ADP Payroll Misses."

posted by CAPIS on 12/04/2019 at 7:30 am

by CAPIS

12/04/2019 at 7:30 am

Breaking News – ADP Payroll comes in light at 67,000 from expected 175,000.

IPOs on deck:   None of note.

IPOs Filed: None filed after the close.

Secondaries Priced: ARWR VRAY RLMD CNNEKOD   of note.

Notes Priced:   None of note.

Common Stock filings:  RVNC  IMMU ADMS RLMD VYGR DT CNNE  of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings filed: ADMS of note.

Convertible Offering Files:  MDRX of note.

Senior Notes Filed:  None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat:

HQY +0.24, WDAY +0.16, CRM +0.09, AVAV +0.05, ZA +0.02 of note.

Flat:

MRVL

Missed:

None of note.

Hourly Action This Week:

Close of 12/2.

News After The Close (In Order of Time)

Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) November numbers reflect softness in the U.S. economy.

Alphabet (GOOGL) names Sundar Pichai CEO of both Google and Alphabet. Larry Page to step down as CEO of Alphabet.

Stock Repurchase Announcements:  MA RUSHA VNET 

Dividend Increase:  ADC TTC MA MED 

Gap Higher: LCI +19%, HQY +14%, RAPT +8%, TTM +8%, GPRO +8%, DRD +7%, XXII +5%, IBN +4%, INMD +4%, SOXL +4%, UWT +4%.

Gap Lower: VRAY -14%, RVNC -11%, CNNE -9%, ADMS -8%, IMMU -8%, RLMD -7%, ARWR -7%, TVIX -7%, UVXY -5%, ORAN -5%, ZS -4%, DT -4%, WDAY -4%, DWT -4%, VYGR -4%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. 

S&P 500 +12 Dow Jones Industrial Average +135 NASDAQ +44 Russell 2000 +9.67 Fair values are mixed. Asia and Europe mixed to higher.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $129.77 from $129.28 with yields at 1.73% from 1.78% . Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Utilities and Real Estate of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Industrials, Materials, Consumer Goods and Services of note.

One Month Winners: Healthcare, Industrials and Technology.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Financials and Healthcare.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Goods, Industrials, Technology and Healthcare.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials and Services.

Year to Date: Technology, Industrials, Technology, Consumer Goods, Services and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close:  

SNPS WORK FIVE ESTC SMAR HRB RH DSGX VRNT SMTC GEF PGNY HOME POWL SPWH TLYS of note.

Thursday Before The Open:

TD DG CM BFB KR TIF PDCO MEI GMS MIK PLCE SY SIG SCWX DLTH EXPR JILL KIRK of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat:

CPB +0.07, GIII +0.05 of note.

Missed:     

RY (0.11) of note.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story: Bloomberg reports U.S. and China move closer to a deal despite rhetoric. (Bloomberg)

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

Five  Things To Know To Start Your Day. (CNBC)

Stocks making the biggest move this morning. (CNBC)

Mexico opposed changes to USMCA that the House Democrats are requesting. (WSJ)

Japanese Parliament has approved free trade deal with the U.S. (Nikkei)

Iraq and other countries will support larger output restrictions at this week’s OPEC meeting. (WSJ)

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross notes that the U.S. has note ruled out auto tariffs. (Reuters)

House votes 407-1to pass “Uighur Intervention and Global Humanitarian Unified Response Act”. Senate to modify and will be signed into law by year end.

Saudi Aramco may price at the high end of its range. (Bloomberg)

Qualcomm (QCOM) loses antitrust ruling in South Korea. Will appeal.

Whistleblower unsealed against Navistar (NAV) in DC Federal Court. Amount of suit is over $1 billion.

Notable Data Points

Most stock indexes lost more ground on Monday. Current through 12/3.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line model is now a buy though it is struggling with the recent action. Updated through 12/3. Year to date model up 12.56% on the S&P 500. 5 buy signals and 4 cash signals in 2019. Current signal is a buy.

YTD 65% (+1% change week over week) of stocks are higher and 38% are lower. Updated  through 11/29 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through 12/3.

Economic & Related:

Eurozone PMI was out overnight and

API Petroleum Institute Weekly Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications  out at 7:00 a.m. EDT and

November ADP Employment is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 175,000 from 125,000.

November Non-ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 54.8 from 54.7

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:      

President Trump attends the NATO Summit and then have a meeting with German Prime Minister Angela Merkel before leaving for Washington D.C.

Federal Reserve Governor Randall Quarles will speak at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) is out with its latest rate announcement and no rate increase or decrease is expected.

Impeach Hearings resume today at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Investor/Analyst Days & Conference Calls of Note:  ORAN (Investor Day)  

Sellside Conferences: Wells Fargo TMT Conference (12/2-12/4). Credit Suisse TMT Conference (12/2-12/5). Evercore ISI HealthConX Conference (12/3-12/5). Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference. (12/3-12/5). Credit Suisse Annual Industrials Conference (12/3-12/5) UBS Global Emerging Markets One on One Conference (12/3-12/5). Scotiabank Mining Conference (12/3-12/4). Morgan Stanley Consumer and Retail Conference (12/3-12/4). Benchmark Discovery 1X1 Conference (12/4).

Industry Conferences: NASDAQ Annual Investor Conference (12/3-12/4). Annual BIOMEDevice San Jose Conference (12/4-12/5).

M&A Activity

Upgrades & Downgrades

DISCLAIMER

This communication is for informational purposes only and is solely intended for use by institutional investors. Use of this communication by others, including retail investors, is prohibited. No statement herein is to be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, or to provide investment advice. Certain products, including options and futures, may involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The information on this webpage is provided by an independent third party. While the information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Capital Institutional Services, Inc. (CAPIS) to be reliable, CAPIS makes no representations concerning its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of this material.