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"CAPIS Morning Note -2/5/20 Stocks Continue To Rally Despite Risks"

posted by CAPIS on 02/05/2020 at 7:46 am

by CAPIS

02/05/2020 at 7:46 am

IPOs on deck:  None of note.

IPOs Filed:  None of note.

Secondaries Priced:  None of note.

Notes Priced:  IART of note.

Common Stock filings:  ZIOP AFYA RAPT of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  BW HIW of note.

Convertible Offering Files: PAR of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: 

 USNA +0.43, NBIX +0.30, PRU +0.28, PLT +0.17, PAA +0.14, CB +0.13, ZAYO +0.11, CMG +0.11, MDU +0.10, RNR +0.10, CCK +0.09, DIS +0.09, MANH +0.09, KLAC +0.08, AINV +0.07, PCTY +0.07, BOOT +0.06, MCHP +0.06, STX +0.06, MODN +0.06, JKHY +0.05, VIAV +0.04, QGEN +0.04, ESE +0.03, CNXN +0.03, THG +0.03, AFL +0.02, APAM +0.02, OI +0.02, UNM +0.02, SNAP +0.02, SWI +0.02, IPHI +0.02, ATGE +0.02, DOX +0.01, ATO +0.01, CERN +0.01, ETH +0.01, GTES +0.01, HIW +0.01, PDM +0.01, MWA +0.01, TENB +0.01 of note.

Missed:

 OLN (0.37), GILD (0.37), PAGP (0.30), RRR (0.23), GNW (0.15), ALL (0.08), KN (0.05), F (0.05), MTCH (0.05), SCSC (0.04), NEWR (0.03), GL (0.02), FISV (0.01), YRCW (0.01) of note.

Flat: EGHT +0.00, CDK +0.00, TCS +0.00

Hourly Action This Week: Updated 2/4

News After The Close (In Order of Time)

Walt Disney (DIS) subs for Disney+ come in at 26,5 million beating estimates. Hulu rises to +33% year over year.

NASDAQ (NDAQ) reports January 2020 metrics for U.S. Equity Options of 178 million versus 147 million in December and 144 a year ago.

Best Buy (BBY) Board of Directors concludes review of CEO Corie Barry without any more action or comments.

Macy’s (M) will close 125 stores over the next three years, guides lower.

Walt Disney (DIS) CEO Bob Iger interviewed on CNBC post earnings.

FDA issues first approval of coronavirus diagnostic.

Index Changes: Investors Real Estate Trust (IRET) will replace Innophos Holdings (IPHS) in the S&P 600 as of 2/10 trading.

Stock Repurchase Announcements:  

Dividend Increases: SKYW GILD HIW MCHP MSBI AFL DOX MMM CSGS 

Gap Higher: USNA +20%, ORN +12%, QGEN +6%, YRCW +4%, JKHY +4%, ABB +4%, IRET +4%, UNM +4%, PHAS +4%

Gap Lower: PLT -32%, ZIOP -15%, KN -14%, NEWR -9%, F -8%, SNAP -8%, BOOT -7%, RAPT -7%, MTCH -7%, OLN -6%, TTWO -6%, SWI -5%, TSLA -4%, IMXI -4%

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. 

S&P 500 +27.46 Dow Jones Industrial Average +260  NASDAQ +103.45 Russell 2000 +16.68. Fair values are lower. Asia and Europe  higher.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $130.63 from $131.05 with yields at 1.659 from 1.584%.  Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Services, Consumer Goods and Healthcare of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Utilities of note.

One Month Winners: Conglomerates, Utilities, Technology and Consumer Goods.

Three Month Winners: Healthcare, Consumer Goods and Technology.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Goods, Utilities, Healthcare, Technology, Industrials and Financials.

Twelve Month Winners: Consumer Goods,Technology, Utilities, Industrials and Services.

Year to Date: Conglomerates, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close:  

 QCOM MET SU CTSH ORLY AVB IAC CNF YUMC TWLO FOXA FMC LNC  OHI MPWR UHAL of note.

Thursday Before The Open:

PM SNY BMY BDX CI SPGI ICE BCE REGN YUM TWTR BLL TSN K FCAU CDW ODFL CAH ABMD of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat:

 SUM +0.51, GPI +0.29, PFGC +0.14, NS +0.13, UMC +0.11, HUM +0.09, MCFT +0.08, TMHC +0.06, CPRI +0.06, AME +0.05, PAG +0.05, WD +0.05, DTE +0.05, ABB +0.04, COTY +0.03, NVT +0.03, BSX +0.02, MRK +0.01 of note.

Flat: None of note.

Missed:   

SPOT (0.78), CG (0.52), OSB (0.18), TKR (0.12), ENR (0.12), FSV (0.03), KFRC (0.01) of note.

Still To Report:  BMI, CYOU, GM, MHO, BTU, SR

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story:  

Stocks making the biggest moves. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

Coronavirus update. 65 dies yesterday bringing total to 496. (NYT)

Death toll from coronavirus will exceed 500 today. (Bloomberg)

U.K. scientists make a breakthrough in development of coronavirus vaccine. (Telegraph)

WHO plays down a potential vaccine for coronavirus. (CNBC)

Two cruise ships in Asia are quarantines as passengers have coronavirus. (CNN)

State of the Union reviewed. (NYT)

White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow says that coronavirus could delay Phase One Trade Deal. (Fox Business)

Iowa Caucus sees 71% of the vote in with Mayor Pete Buttigieg leading with 26.8% of vote. (NYT)

Tesla (TSLA) delays Model 3 delivery in China due to coronavirus. (CNBC)

Stock Index Tracking

All  stock indexes in trouble except NASDAQ 100. Current through 2/4 close.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line model moved to cash last Friday. Updated through 2/4. In 2019, the model was up 16.48% on the S&P 500 and this year is up 2.08%. 5 buy signals and 4 cash signals in 2019. Current buy signal ended with a gain of 9.83% and began on 10/17/19.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through 2/4.

Economic & Related:

API Petroleum Institute released its weekly data yesterday at 4:30 p.m. EDT and saw a build of 4.2 million barrels for crude oil and gasoline had a build of 2 million barrels.

MBA Mortgage Applications rose 5% week over week.

January ADP Payroll Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 160,000 from 202,000. Came in at 291,000.

ISM Nonmanufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to remain at 55.

Geopolitical:      

President Trump will lunch with the Secretary of Defense.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will speak at 4:10 p.m. EDT.

Meetings, Calls & Conferences

Investor/Analyst Days & Conference Calls of Note: COST (Monthly Sales Report 4:15 p.m. EDT) GM M (Investor Day)

Sellside Conferences: None of note.

Industry Conferences: NAPE Summit 2020 ((2/3-2/7).Global Hydrogen Energy Summit. (2/4-2/7). World of Concrete (2/4-2/7). Microstrategy 2020 (2/4-2/6). SEMICON Korea (2/4-2/7)

M&A Activity

GMS buys Trowel Trades Supply, no terms.

Upgrades & Downgrades

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