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07.13.2020 9 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (9)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note -6/3/20 ADP Payroll Comes In Better Than Estimates, Leading Investors To Hope For Best On Job’s Friday."

posted by CAPIS on 06/03/2020 at 6:34 am

by CAPIS

06/03/2020 at 6:34 am

The Story – ADP Payroll fell only 2.76 million versus an estimate of 9 million. (CNBC)

IPOs on deck: PlanetRX.com (PLRX) to go public today at $16 a share which is the high end of the range $14 to $16. Warner Music Group (WMG) to also go public today at $25 above $23 to $25 range.

IPOs Filed:  None of note.

Secondaries Priced:  RNR NTLA EVFM OSUR RGA of note.

Notes Priced of note: SPLK of note.

Common Stock filings: EVFM RGA GLUU ARCE HLNE  Stocks With Selling Shareholders WERN HLNE  of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  CLLS LIN TCBK of note.

Convertible Offering Files:  None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat:  

ZM +0.10, CRWD +0.08, AMBA +0.05, MDLA +0.04 of note.

Misses: 

HQY (-0.01) of note.

Gap Up: HUGE +129%, APPS +15%, MCHP +7%, CRWD +7%, COTY +6%, CAKE +5%, DZSI +5%, LYFT +5%, PTEN +4%

Gap Down: EVFM -21%, RGA -12%, NTLA -6%, HQY -6%, HLNE -5%, ARCE -5%, OSUR -5%, ACCO -4%, EVRI -4%

Hourly Action This Past Week: Updated 6/2 Close

News After The Close (In Order)

The United Kingdom considers a Huawei ban as payback for the virus. (Nikkei Asian Review)

The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) has opened 25% of restaurants.

Twitter (TWTR) names Patrick Pichette as Chairman of the Board of Directors as Omaid Kordestani steps down as Executive Chairman.

Telsa (TSLA) to offer software subscription model for premium connectivity and self driving.  (Electrek)

Raises Guidance: CRWD ZM KFRC

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. 

S&P 500 +19 Dow Jones Industrial Average +230 NASDAQ +18 Russell 2000 +18.89. Fair values are lower.  Asia higher and Europe higher.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.91 from $138.92 with yields at 0.716%.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Energy,Materials and Industrials of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday: None of note.

One Month Winners: Technology, Materials and Communication Services of note.

Three Month Winners: Technology and Healthcare of note.

Six Month Winners:  Technology, Healthcare and Consumer Cyclical of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Healthcare, Technology and Communication Services of note.

Year to Date: Technology of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close: GWRE ESTC SMAR CLDR VRNT CHNG ZUO GEF GES CMTL of note.

Thursday Before The Open: SJM CIEN TTC NAV LX MIK GIII CONN SCWX of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat:

CPB +0.29 of note.

Flat: GOOS

Missed:

 AEO (0.53) CNK (0.34) VRA (0.04) of note.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know To Start Your Tuesday. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Spain to resume tourism. Sweden admits could have done a better job.

U.S. Coronavirus Map.

President Trump will discuss next coronavirus relief bill this week. (WSJ)

Protests were relatively calm last night. (WSJ)

Dr. Fauci notes that a Covid-19 vaccine may not provide long term immunity. Not a big deal as you get a flu shot every year. (CNBC)

CDC has agreement on how to stop Covid-19  outbreak on cruise ships. (Miami Herald)

Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) may have open 65% of company operated stores. (Marketwatch)

Stock Index Tracking

Current through 6/2 close.   Yesterday we noted the S&P 400 moved above its 200 day moving average it has not.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line model is now a BUY. Updated through 6/2 close. In 2019, the model was up 16.48% on the S&P 500 and this year is up 5.25% with the S&P 500 lower by -7.40% through yesterday. Now 6 buy signals and 4 cash signals in 2019 and 2020. The last buy gained 12.89%.  The current buy signal is up 

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 6/2 close. EVL Ranges remain above normal and are highlighted in blue but are trying to return to normal.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic & Related:

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications are out this morning and rose 5% after a rise of 2.75% last week.

May ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 p.m. EDT and is expected to fall by -9 million from -20.36 million for April.

April Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to -13% from -10.3%.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related

President Trump will meet with the Secretary of State at 1:15 p.m. EDT and then the White House holds a press conference at 2:00 p.m. EDT led by Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany.

Meetings, Calls & Conferences

Investor/Analyst Days & Conference Calls of Note:  REPL (Conference Call) ADSK LIZI (Investor/Analyst Meeting) COST (monthly sales call) CAPR ERIC (Update)

Sellside Conferences: Cowen & Co Industrials, Robotics and Sustainability Conference (6/1-6/3). Credit Suisse Global Energy Conference (6/2-6/5). Credit Suisse Global Chemical & Agriculture, Packaging & Cement Series (6/2-6/3). Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference (6/2-6/4). Baird Annual Global Consumer, Technology and Service Conference (6/2 – 6/4). Bank of America Global Technology Conference (6/2-6/4). UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference (6/2-6/3). RBC Capital Markets Annual Global Energy & Power, Executive Conference (6/2-6/3). Bank of America Emerging Markets Debt & Equity Conference (6/2-6/3). Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Fintech Conference (6/3-6/4). Barclays High Yield Bond and Syndicated Loan Conference (6/3-6/5). Citibank Annual Brazil Equity Conference (6/3-6/4). Needham Annual Automotive Tech Conference (6/3). Bank of America Merrill Lynch Virtual Energy Credit Conference (6/3-6/4).

Industry Conferences: NAREIT Investor Conference For REIT Week (6/1-6/4).

M&A

Upgrades & Downgrades:

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