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Morning Note

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 7/30/20 Q2 GDP Falls -32.50%, Biggest Drop Ever"

posted by CAPIS on 07/30/2020 at 6:06 am

by CAPIS

07/30/2020 at 6:06 am

Covid-19 Stats For Wednesday:

Reported Cases yesterday: 66,2111 from 53,507

Tests 839,868 from 733,243

Positivity Rate: 7.88% from 7.30%

Deaths 1,418 from 1,121

Current Hospitalizations 57,306 from 57,091

source COVID tracking project

IPOs Priced: None of note.

Secondaries Priced: None of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings: TENB SPPI WAB of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  None of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed:  None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beats:

ORLY +3.00, URI +1.75, CNMD +0.88, LRCX +0.87, CXO +0.70, CHE +0.66, MGRC +0.52, SANM +0.52, MKSI +0.44, FICO +0.42, QRVO +0.37, HOLX +0.37, BLKB +0.35, ADM +0.34, FBHS +0.34, SCI +0.34, ASGN +0.33, LOGM +0.31, AR +0.29, UCTT +0.28, APA +0.27, RJF +0.26, AX +0.24, MMSI +0.24, CAKE +0.23, WERN +0.22, ACGL +0.21, SKY +0.21, NOW +0.21, MSA +0.19, PYPL +0.19, SFM +0.19, PTC +0.18, TYL +0.18, OIS +0.17, TTMI +0.17, QCOM +0.15, CHDN +0.13, CTSH +0.13, MTSI +0.12, WHD +0.12, YUMC +0.12, AMP +0.11, SRI +0.11, PS +0.10, WPX +0.10, CONE +0.10, MANT +0.09, MOBL +0.07, CGNX +0.07, OII +0.07, MEOH +0.06, SIMO +0.06, KLIC +0.06, TTEK +0.05, NLY +0.05, CDE +0.05, AVTR +0.05, MAA +0.04, AEGN +0.04, INOV +0.04, FTI +0.04, DORM +0.04, NGVT +0.03, SIGI +0.03, EGOV +0.03, TROX +0.03, CERN +0.02, CCI +0.02, PI +0.02, MC +0.02, KGC +0.02, DRE +0.01, FCPT +0.01, HPP +0.01, VICI +0.01, AEM +0.01, ISBC +0.01  of note.

Flat:  AGI +0.00, AM +0.00, PGRE +0.00

Misses: 

TSE (1.15), VAC (0.60), ALGT (0.46), EQIX (0.22), RGR (0.18), PPC (0.14), TDOC (0.12), KRC (0.12), WIRE (0.10), WRI (0.07), EQC (0.06), GNW (0.06), AVB (0.04), BHE (0.02), PDM (0.01), KN (0.01) of note.

Hourly Tracking – Updated Through 7/28

News After The Close:

Yum China (YUMC) opens 10,000 store.

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows notes that enhanced unemployment insurance will expire on Friday. No deal.

FDA may authorize antibody rich blood plasma as treatment for Covid-19.

Qualcomm (QCOM) settles dispute with Huawei.

Raises Guidance Raised: CTSH PTC PS HOLX SANM LRCX CGNX INOV SCI MANT PYPL MTSI MKSI

Lowers Guidance: 

Raises Dividend: CTBI RSG POR

Cut Dividend:

Stock Split Announcement: 

Stock Buyback: 

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. Futures were down, up, down, new low and now rebounding.

S&P 500 -27.50  Dow Jones Industrial Average -240 NASDAQ -96  Russell 2000 -16.  Fair values are a bit lower.  Asia lower and Europe lower. VIX is at 27.15 from 27.77 this morning.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.92 from $139.66 with yields at 0.554%.

Positive Sectors On Wednesday:  All of note led by Real Estate, Technology and Energy.

Negative Sectors On Wednesday: None of note.

One Month Winners: Materials, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.

Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Materials of note.

Six Month Winners:  Technology,Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare and Communication Services of note.

Gap Up:

HOME +43%, SANM +15%, MOBL +12%, UCTT +11%, UPS +11%, APA +11%, QCOM +11%, BLNK +11%, PRK +10%, MD +10%, MGRC +10%, HOLX +9%, CMPR +9%, MTSI +8%, MKSI +7%, QRVO +7%, SKY +7%, BLKB +7%, KDP +6%, BC +6%, CTSH +6%, ACGL +5%, AX +5%, ABEV +5%, ORLY +5%, SCI +5%, EGOV +4%, FTI +4%, NLY +4%, PS +4%, NWHM +4%, CPG +4%

Gap Down: 

SPPI -22%, QEP -11%, PI -9%, TSE -9%, TROX -8%, NGD -6%, ARGX -5%, NOW -5%, TAL -5%, ORAN -5%, TENB -4%, CDE -4%, AR -4%, WEX -4%

Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close:  AAPL AMZN GOOGL GILD VRTX SYK MELI TEAM DLR EA SGEN F ED XLNX MTD AJG SPG of note.

Tomorrow Morning: MRK XOM ABBV CVX CHTR CAT D CL ITW  AON IDXX PSX JCI PEG VFC of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat:

GPI +3.21, UPS +1.05, AGCO +1.03, TAP +0.91, OSK +0.80, TPX +0.75, CROX +0.75, NOC +0.73, TFX +0.68, CI +0.65, HBI +0.62, MCO +0.61, DBD +0.57, VC +0.57, BC +0.55, ALXN +0.53, GNRC +0.52, EXP +0.45, SAH +0.41, IP +0.38, LKQ +0.37, SWK +0.32, CARS +0.29, RDS.A +0.29, LLY +0.29, TMHC +0.28, FCN +0.28, YUM +0.27, HUBB +0.26, APTV +0.25, CLF +0.20, MD +0.20, MMC +0.19, ODFL +0.19, CBZ +0.15, KHC +0.15, MAS +0.15, VLO +0.15, PG +0.15, WLTW +0.14, RGEN +0.14, CMCSA +0.14, DAN +0.12, DD +0.12, TAL +0.11, SO +0.11, BUD +0.10, MYE +0.10, KL +0.08, WM +0.08, AMT +0.07, MGPI +0.06, COR +0.06, AGIO +0.05, XEL +0.05, NTCT +0.05, PBI +0.05, CARR +0.05, CG +0.05, PQG +0.04, CCC +0.04, AZN +0.04, AOS +0.03, ICE +0.03, XYL +0.02, GRA +0.02, CGEN +0.02, LNTH +0.02, NEM +0.01, KDP +0.01, NVCR +0.01 of note.

Flat: SIRI +0.00, TW +0.00, DNKN +0.00

Missed:

CNX (0.82), GIL (0.57), MT (0.39), COP (0.34), TXT (0.31), WEX (0.17), ELAN (0.16), BPMC (0.15), HGV (0.11), SBH (0.10), BAX (0.07), FMS (0.06), KEX (0.02), IDA (0.02), WYND (0.01), XHR (0.01), TRP (0.01), APO (0.01) of note.

Still to Report: ARW, CWT, CRS, CRAI, CNHI, COHU, CFR, ES, GPC, GRUB, ITGR, K, MMP, MA, MPW, OSTK, PATK, PRFT, PFS, SNDR, TNC, TRS

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart – We are no longer showing our proprietary advance/decline model as it is available on a subscription basis. Instead we are now showing a chart of the advance/decline. We hope you enjoy. Close 7/29. Stocks recovered on Wednesday.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research Inc.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

5 Things To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg)

5 Things to Know Before The Market Opens On Wednesday. (CNBC)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves (CNBC)

Corona Virus Update: Case globally top 17 million and Australia sees cases rise. (CNBC)

Stimulus talks remain deadlocked between the GOP and Democrats. (The Washington Post)

Viacom CBS (VIAC) increases its streaming content. (WSJ)

President Trump tweets that the election should be delayed. (Twitter)

Stock Index Trading

Current through 7/29 close. Indexes moved back above some key moving averages thanks to the afternoon strength.

Bold means a change from prior day.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 7/29 close. EVL Ranges  continues to expand again with the recent action. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App  store at APP(GO).

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic 

Weekly Jobless Claims came out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and rose more than expected.

Q2 GDP is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall -35.00% from -5.0% in Q1. Came in at -32.5%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related

President Trump will head to the American Red Cross headquarters in Washington D.C. at 3:00 p.m. EDT and participate in a roundtable on donating plasma for Covid-19.

Meetings, Calls & Conferences

SNY (Analyst Meeting) OCX ADIL  (Update) CYDY SFE (Conference Call) UMH (Webinar) HOMB (Fireside Chat)

Sellside Conferences: KBW Community Bank Investor Conference (7/28-7/30)

Industry Conferences:  Alzheimer’s International Conference (7/27-7/31)

M&A

Upgrades & Downgrades – Thursday Up & Down Recs

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