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10.26.2020 10 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (9) and General (1)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 10/15/20: Stocks Continue Two Day Slide"

posted by CAPIS on 10/15/2020 at 7:34 am

by CAPIS

10/15/2020 at 7:34 am

Breaking News: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says will give ground on virus testing in stimulus package. (CNBC)

Market Tone: Stocks rebounded nicely last week and have been in sell mode the last two days with a third possible this morning.

Covid-19 Update With Latest Data From Wednesday 

Total Cases 7,876,324 from 7,817,857

Recovered: 3,155,794 from 3,124,593

Deaths 208,387 from 207,557

Tests 948,834 from 894,411

Daily Deaths 809 from 669

Current Hospitalizations 37,046 from 36,034

source COVID tracking project

Others sources of note Johns Hopkins Map

Capital Raises

IPOs Priced: None of note.

Secondaries Priced: VVIR SIBN of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings: SIBN of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: LEAF AZRE

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  AEE LEAF AZRE of note.

Convertible Offering Files:  RDFN of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings After The Close:

Beats:

SNBR +0.79, AA +0.08, WAFD +0.03 of note.

Misses:

UAL (0.62), PACW (0.25) of note.

News After The Close:

Fastly (FSLY) lowers Q3 Guidance and the stop gets hammered  of more than 20%. Will impact cloud related stocks.

Albertsons (ACI) declares its first dividend.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) stops Phase 2 Trial of VX-814.

Allegheny Tech (ATI) sees outlook revised to negative by major credit agency due to low demand.

The first son, Barron Trump, tested positive for Covid-19

Amazon (AMZN) reaches NFL playoff game streaming deal with ViacomCBS (VIAC).

Dividend Increase: AVNT ACI

Dividend Suspended: 

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Guides Higher: SNBR 

Hourly Action –  Updated 10/14.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -41  Dow Jones Industrial Average -301 NASDAQ -183 Russell 2000 -14. Fair values are lower.  Asia and Europe lower. Current VIX is at 26.40 from 26.07. 3 month VIX Future is at 28.24 from 28.35.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.39 from $139.25 with yields at 0.694% from 0.716%.

Positive Sectors On Wednesday: Materials, Industrials and Utilities of note.

Negative Sectors On Wednesday: Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close: ISRG TEAM FFIN WAL VICR MRTN of note.

Friday Morning: BK VFC STT SLB KSU NVR JBHT CFG ALLY BMI of note.

Gap Up: 

ORGO +24%, ARWR +8%, SNBR +7%, GNCA +7%, LIVX +6%, CARS +6%, VSH +4% of note.

Gap Down:

FSLY -28%, VVPR -17%, LEAF -12%, VRTX -9%, NET -7%, SIBN -6%, ACCD -6%, AA -5%, ROKU -5%, AKAM -4%  of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat:

TSM +1.03, MS +0.31, CMC +0.22, WNS +0.20, TFC +0.09, WBA +0.06 of note.

Missed:

 of note.

Still To Report: APHA, SCHW, HOMB

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart –  Updated 10/14 Close. The  A/D line was mixed for a second day in a row. 

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – WFC MS FSLY WBA (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: WHO against full lockdowns and Oxford develops 5 minute antigen test. (CNBC)

Europe lower on Covid-19 lockdowns and Brexit impasse. (Reuters)

Preview of Trump and Biden Town Halls. (CNN)

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi to speak again on stimulus as stalemate continues, can you say “boy who cried wolf”. (CNBC)

Walmart (WMT) CEO tells Congress to get stimulus deal done. (CNCB)

Alabama football coach Nick Saban tests positive for Covid-19. (ESPN)

Draft Kings (DKNG) cut deal with AT&T ‘s Turner Sports. (CNBC)

Stock Index Trading

Current through 10/14 close. Several indexed broke their 5 day moving averages yesterday.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/12 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlightingYesterday was the first day in 26 sessions where all indexes were below their historical range.

Economic

Weekly API Petroleum Institute Data came out Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. EDT we spaced on reporting yesterday morning. It came in with a drop of 5.42 million barrels which was the biggest drop since August.

October Empire Manufacturing is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 14 from 17. Came in at 10.5.

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Came in at 898,000.

October Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:35 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 16 from 15 last month. Came in at 32.3.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related

President Trump will speak to Fox’s Stuart Varney at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Then he heads to Greenville, North Carolina to speak at 1:00 p.m. EDT and then heads to Miami, Fl to participate in the NBC News Town Hall.

Senate Judiciary Committee Hearings on Supreme Court Nominee Amy Coney Barrett concludes today with questioning starting at 9:00 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida speaks at 9:00 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Governor Randall Quarles speaks at 11:00 p.m. EDT.

Investor Meetings & Conferences

SWAV DNLI (Webcast) CANF (Update) HPE (Analyst Day) EXPR (Fireside Chat) CRWD SQ VNRX   (Company Event) JEF (Investor Meeting)

Sellside Conferences:

Industry Conferences: Annual Child Neurology Society & 16th  International Child Neurology Society Congress Meeting (10/12-10/23) Cowen MedTools Conference (10/15)

M&A

Upgrades & Downgrades For Thursday – 10/15

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