09.30.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

Morning Note


Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 10/16/20: Retail Sales Rise 1.9% Versus Estimate of 0.7%"

posted by CAPIS on 10/15/2020 at 7:03 pm


10/15/2020 at 7:03 pm

Market Tone: Stocks rebounded nicely last week and have been in sell mode the last three days BUT rallied all Thursday from the opening print which was the low for the day. That strength is extending into today’s action with the strong retail sales data. More data out later today. Cold weather begins to invade the upper half of the United States today and continues for the next two weeks, watch natural gas prices.

Covid-19 Update With Latest Data From Thursday 

Total Cases 7,939,566 from 7,876,324

Recovered: 3,177,397 from 3,155,794

Deaths 209,340 from 208,387

Tests 1,006,043 from 948,834

Daily Deaths 951 from 809

Current Hospitalizations 37,308 from 37,046

source COVID tracking project

Others sources of note Johns Hopkins Map

Capital Raises

IPOs Priced: Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) prices IPO at $16 a share which is within the expected range of $15 to $17. Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) priced at $19 a share above expected $17 to $18. Aligos Therapeutics (ALGS) priced at $15 which is within the range of $14 to $16.

Secondaries Priced: RPRX of note.

Notes Priced of note: RDFN of note.

Common Stock filings: None of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: FSLY

Mixed Shelf Offerings: CDW of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings After The Close:


ISRG +0.82, MRTN +0.02 of note.


None of note.

News After The Close:

TrueCar (TRUE) CFO Noel Watson to resign.

Biden campaign worker who flew with Biden has tested positive for Covid-19. Biden did not have close contact.

Twitter (TWTR) had a major outage last night. (The Verge)

Dividend Increase: VFC

Dividend Suspended: 

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Guides Higher: HPE VFC

Hourly Action –  Updated 10/14.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +15  Dow Jones Industrial Average +140 NASDAQ +73 Russell 2000 +10.52. Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe higher. Current VIX is at 26.97 from 26.40. 3 month VIX Future is at 28.72 from 28.24.

Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.17 from$139.39  with yields at 0.751% from 0.694%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday: Real Estate, Industrials and Financials of note.

Negative Sectors On Thursday: Healthcare, Technology and Communication Services of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close:  None of note.

Monday Morning: PHG HAL LII ONB SFNC HNI PETS of note.

Gap Up: 

ORTX +12%, CIT +9%, ZGNX +7%, PQG +7%, AMRN +6%, PPC +5%, HTZ +5% of note.

Gap Down:

GLPG -8%, TACO -7%, XENT -4%, OESX -4%

of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note


CIT +0.73, ALLY +0.55, VFC +0.19, BK +0.04, STT +0.04, SLB +0.03 of note.


JBHT (0.10), CFG (0.02) of note.

Still To Report: BMI, KSU

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart –  Updated 10/15 Close. The  A/D line was stronger than the returns on the major indexes as the Russell 2000 led the way on Thursday. 

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – PFE BA CHWY CAT (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Pfizer looks to late November for vaccine, Dr. Scott Gottlieb calls on president to tout masks. (CNBC)

Recap of the dueling town halls for the presidential candidates. (WSJ)

Biden moves ahead of Trump in Florida according to the latest polls. (Bloomberg)

Pfizer (PFE) may have enough data to apply for Emergency Use Authorization for its vaccine as soon as late November. (WSJ)

European Union regulators say the Boeing (BA) 737 Max is safe to fly. (Bloomberg)

Stock Index Trading

Current through 10/15 close. Several indexed broke their 5 day moving averages yesterday.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/14 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlightingYesterday was the first day in 26 sessions where all indexes were below their historical range.


September Retail Sales is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at 0.6%. Came out at 1.9% which is a HUGE beat.

September Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.6% from 0.4%.

October NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 83 which is what number it put up last month.

October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 82 from 80.4.

Geopolitical & Related

President Trump will head to Fort Myers, Florida from Miami late morning to deliver a speech to seniors at 1:30 p.m. EDT then heads to Ocala, Florida for a rally at 4:00 p.m. EDT. After that rally, the president heads to Macon, Georgia to deliver a speech at 7:00 p.m. EDT before heading back to The White House. 

Investor Meetings & Conferences

MOTS (Conference Call) MDWD SAFM  (Investor Day) VCEL (Analyst Day) 

Sellside Conferences: None of note.

Industry Conferences: Annual Child Neurology Society & 16th  International Child Neurology Society Congress Meeting (10/12-10/23)


Upgrades & Downgrades For Friday – 10/16


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