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11.27.2020 9 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (9)

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"CAPIS Morning Note for 10/21/20: Stimulus Talks Continue Despite Deadline"

posted by CAPIS on 10/21/2020 at 7:42 am

by CAPIS

10/21/2020 at 7:42 am

Market Tone: Stocks have been fading gains since last Friday. Same thing yesterday as the S&P 500 high was 3476 and closed at 3443. Once the market can put stimulus behind it then normal trading can return only to get volatile again election week. Volatility remains a clear and present issue. The deadline for a stimulus deal put in place by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the weekend has come and gone yet we are still talking about the deal. Can you say “kicking the can down the road”.

Covid-19 Update With Latest Data From Monday 

Total Cases 8,232,285 from 8,171,703

Recovered: 3,295,148 from 3,272,603

Deaths 212,678 from 211,846

Tests 906.932 from 1,200,056

Daily Deaths 832 from 780

Current Hospitalizations 39,230 from  37,744

source COVID tracking project

Others sources of note Johns Hopkins Map

Capital Raises

IPOs Priced: Datto Holding (MSP) priced at $27. 

Secondaries Priced:  None of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings: APTX CWST REPL of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: 

Mixed Shelf Offerings: R of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings After The Close:

Beats:

IRBT +2.27, THC +0.40, PNFP +0.35, NBHC +0.33, WDFC +0.29, CALX +0.21, UCBI +0.21, HWC +0.20, NAVI +0.20, FULT +0.18, TXN +0.17, USNA +0.15, FMBI +0.11, CSL +0.07, SNAP +0.06, HOPE +0.06, TER +0.06, DCT +0.04, IBKR +0.03, REXR +0.02 of note.

Flat: 

Misses:

NFLX (0.40), AGR (0.09), CNI (0.08), WRB (0.05) of note.

News After The Close:

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows notes that stimulus talks have a ways to go.

Netflix (NFLX) falls on lower revenue estimates.

Snap (SNAP) rises sharply on earnings beat.

Dividend Increase: LECO BRO

Dividend Suspended: 

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Guides Higher: 

Hourly Action –  Updated 10/15.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +2.50 Dow Jones Industrial Average -10  NASDAQ +4.75  Russell 2000 +3.89 . Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe lower. Current VIX is at 29.35 from 29.18. 3 month VIX Future is at 30.11 from 30.40.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.52 from $138.75with yields at 0.813% from 0.789%.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday:  Energy, Financials and Materials of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday:  Healthcare of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: TSLA CSX CCI LCRX EW CMG LVS KMI XLNX ALGN DFS WHR GGG MTH CNS of note.

Thursday Morning: KO T DHR UNP BX KMB NOC DOW STM FCX LUV GWW CHKP TSCO CTXS of note.

Morning Gaps:

Gap Up:

SNAP +23%, CALX +15%, TCS +11%, PNM +8%, OCX +8%, XERS +7%, PINS +7%, USNA +6%, WDFC +5%, REXR +5%, PRTA +4%

Gap Down

REPL -8%, NFLX -6%, CWST -4%, NAVI -4%, THC -3%

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat:

LAD +3.59, TMO +2.40, NEP +2.15, FBC +1.56, BIIB +0.77, EVR +0.73, AN +0.73, WGO +0.52, AVY +0.41, ERIC +0.39, IPG +0.20, CADE +0.19, SLGN +0.11, HCSG +0.10, NDAQ +0.08, NEE +0.08, ABT +0.07, TDY +0.07, KEY +0.05, VZ +0.03 of note.

Flat: BKR +0.00

Missed: NTRS (0.06), MANU (0.02) of note.

Still To Report: APH, BOKF, KNX

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart –  Updated 10/20 Close. The  A/D line saw improvement. 

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – VZ NFLX SNAP AN  (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Study finds factors linked to “long Covid-19”. (CNBC)

Mortality rate of hospitalized Covid-19 patients drops to 7.6% from 25.6% early on in the pandemic. (NPR)

House Speaker Pelosi still hopeful of a stimulus deal. (Bloomberg)

Pfizer (PFE) preparing for a vaccine distribution. (WSJ)

Stock Index Trading

Current through 10/20 close. Several indexes broke their 10 day moving averages Monday in addition to their 5 day moving averages. They have yet to recover.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/16 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic

Weekly API Petroleum Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

MBA Mortgage Applications came out at 7:00 a.m. EDT and fell -0.6% from a drop of -0.7% a week ago.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT. 

Geopolitical & Related

President Trump will head to Charlotte, NC to speak at a MAGA Rally at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will speak at 8:50 a.m. EDT.

Investor Meetings & Conferences

 TSK SPLK HCKT ICAD (Webcast) CPST (Fireside Chat)

Sellside Conferences: None of note.

Industry Conferences: Annual Child Neurology Society & 16th  International Child Neurology Society Congress Meeting (10/12-10/23) World Vaccine Congress Europe (10/19-10/21) Oktoberfest Fall Mining Showcase (10/21-10/23) Capital Link Annual Analyst & Investor Shipping Forum (10/21-10/22)

M&A

Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) to buy Parsley Energy (PE) for $4.5 billion. We note this is the second large deal in the energy space inside of a week.

About the Author

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