Market Tone: Stocks have been fading gains since last Friday. Same thing yesterday as the S&P 500 high was 3465 and closed at 3435. Once the market can put stimulus behind it then normal trading can return only to get volatile again election week. Volatility remains a clear and present issue. The deadline for a stimulus deal put in place by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the weekend has come and gone yet we are still talking about the deal. Can you say “kicking the can down the road”.
Covid-19 Update With Latest Data From Wednesday
Total Cases 8,289,661 from 8,232,285
Recovered: 3,323,354 from 3,295,148
Deaths 213,672 from 212,678
Tests 870,363 from 906.932
Daily Deaths 994 from 832
Current Hospitalizations 37,046 from 39,230
IPOs Priced: McAfee (MCFE) priced at $20 with range of $19 to $22.
Secondaries Priced: PLL APTX ACCD REPL of note.
Notes Priced of note: None of note.
Common Stock filings: AMSC of note.
Selling Shareholders of note:
Mixed Shelf Offerings: KNDI FULT of note.
Convertible Offering Files: CLAR of note.
Senior Notes Filed: None of note.
Earnings After The Close:
WHR +2.71, LRCX +1.55, ALGN +1.52, DFS +0.91, WTFC +0.57, TCBI +0.49, NTGR +0.47, MTH +0.42, SLM +0.37, UFPI +0.35, CMG +0.32, EFX +0.27, VMI +0.27, AXTA +0.25, UMPQ +0.23, SLG +0.21, LSTR +0.19, SUI +0.17, GGG +0.17, TSLA +0.16, ICLR +0.15, KALU +0.14, BCOV +0.13, CCI +0.12, WSBC +0.12, TRN +0.10, CNS +0.07, EW +0.07, STL +0.06, XLNX +0.05, FR +0.04, CSX +0.03, CVBF +0.02, CLB +0.01, KMI +0.01 of note.
Flat: BDN +0.00, GL +0.00, LVS +0.00, NWE +0.00
FTI (0.05), SEIC (0.05) of note.
News After The Close:
Boy Who Cried Wolf? House Speaker Pelosi notes that stimulus talks will continue Thursday.
Sonoco Products (SON) raises prices 8% on paperboard tubes and cores.
Alibaba (BABA) unit Ant Group set to go public.
Dividend Increase: AWI AIMC HOMB GTY
Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: CSX TRN
Guides Higher: AXTA WHR LRCX VIAV CLAR LSTR VMI FRWD ENTG WST TSCO NOC SIRI CTXS
Guides Lower: TAL
Hourly Action – Updated 10/15.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 -5.50 Dow Jones Industrial Average -38 NASDAQ -17.25 Russell 2000 +11.22 . Fair values are lower. Asia mixed and Europe mixed. Current VIX is at 28.65 from 29.35. 3 month VIX Future is at 29.61 from 30.11.
Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.59 from $138.52 with yields at 0.811% from 0.813%.
Positive Sectors On Wednesday: Communication Services, Materials and Financials of note.
Negative Sectors On Wednesday: Energy, Industrials and Healthcare of note.
One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.
Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.
Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Today After The Close: INTC COF VRSN FE MPWR SIVB STX SAM UHS MANH RHI PBCT MAT FFIN of note.
Friday Morning: HON AXP ITW ABB ALV GNTX FHN CRI UBSI CLF AMC TRTN FHB of note.
ALGN +25%, BCOV +10%, DFS +7%, PTEN +7%, RUSHA +6%, AXTA +6%, ALLK +6%, UFPI +5%, SLM +5%, TSLA +5%, CSX +5%, WHR +4%, LVS +4%, RXT +4%
APTX -13%, KALU -13%, PLL -11%, CHU -7%, CLAR -7%, AMSC -6%, ARGX -6%, TAL -4%, CMG -4%, EW -4%
Earnings This Morning Of Note
PAG +1.24, SNA +1.16, DGX +0.58, HRI +0.55, POOL +0.52, WSO +0.49, ALLE +0.45, RS +0.40, LNN +0.36, DHR +0.36, FAF +0.33, RCI +0.30, NOC +0.29, LUV +0.26, TSCO +0.24, MTB +0.24, DOW +0.21, AAL +0.21, PHM +0.19, FITB +0.19, GTLS +0.19, TPH +0.19, WST +0.16, AEP +0.14, VLO +0.13, CTXS +0.13, EQT +0.11, CHKP +0.11, WBS +0.10, KO +0.09, BANC +0.08, ENTG +0.04, SON +0.04, PTEN +0.02, HBAN +0.02, SIRI +0.01, AB +0.01 of note.
ARCH (11.52), ALK (0.30), TAL (0.03), STM (0.03), T (0.01), KMB (0.01) of note.
Still To Report: CRS, EWBC, FCX, GPC, GWW, MTRN, NUE, ORI, UNP, VLY
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart – Updated 10/21 Close. The A/D line saw deterioration and the trend is becoming obvious, lower.
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) to cut jobs. (Bloomberg)
Southwest (LUV) to begin selling ALL seats on December 1st which means middle seat can be taken.
Stock Index Trading
Current through 10/21 close. Several indexes broke their 10 day moving averages Monday in addition to their 5 day moving averages. They have yet to recover.
Bold means a change from prior day.
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/16 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting.
Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Came in at 787,000 almost 100,000 better than expected.
September Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 6.15 million from 6 million last month.
September Leading Indicators are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to drop to 0.6% from 1.20%.
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Geopolitical & Related
President Trump will debate Democratic Nominee Joe Biden tonight at 9:00 p.m. EDT in Nashville.
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will speak at 8:50 a.m. EDT.
Investor Meetings & Conferences
OVID (Webcast) GPS (Investor Day)KDNY (Update)
Sellside Conferences: None of note.
Industry Conferences: Annual Child Neurology Society & 16th International Child Neurology Society Congress Meeting (10/12-10/23) Oktoberfest Fall Mining Showcase (10/21-10/23) Capital Link Annual Analyst & Investor Shipping Forum (10/21-10/22)
Upgrades & Downgrades
We did not get to this yesterday so we include yesterday and today below.