09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

Morning Note


Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 10/27/20: Stocks Up Modestly, After Monday’s Rout"

posted by CAPIS on 10/27/2020 at 7:41 am


10/27/2020 at 7:41 am

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue into the election.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 8,660,366

Recovered 3,460,455

Deaths 217,418

Tests 1,153,040

New Cases 62,315 with positivity rate +6%

Daily Deaths 890

Current Hospitalizations 42,917

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: None of note.

Secondaries Priced:  TPTX  of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings:  MRTX of note.

Selling Shareholders of note:  ALTG MRTX  of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: None  of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings After The Close:


OMF +0.93, SSD +0.55, LRN +0.54, MC +0.51, UIS +0.44, TNET +0.40, FIX +0.34, IBTX +0.33, HTLF +0.31, CR +0.25, AGNC +0.24, VRNS +0.19, PKG +0.16, ACC +0.16, TBI +0.16, BYD +0.15, AMKR +0.11, CATY +0.11, BRO +0.09, HLIT +0.08, TWLO +0.08, CHGG +0.07, FFIV +0.06, HSTM +0.04, PCH +0.03, QTS +0.01  of note.

Flat: ARE 0.00, CINF 0.00, TCF 0.00


NXPI (1.68), PFG (0.55), AJRD (0.08), MEDP (0.07), NOV (0.04)  of note.

News After The Close:

SkyWest (SKYW) COO Mike Thompson will retire immediately.’

TCF Financial (TCF) CEO Craig R. Dahl to retire. Board elects Vice Chairman David T. Provost as next CEO.

NantKwest (NK) names Richard Adcock as CEO.

AIG to separate Life and Retirement business and names Peter Zaffino as next CEO.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) wins $550 million Navy contract.

J.M. Smucker (SJM) to sell Crisco Oil and shortening business to B&G Foods for $550 in cash.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) may sell casinos in Las Vegas for up to $6 billion.

The Senate voted in as the next Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett and she was later sworn in at The White House.

Dividend Increase: CVGW MC FIX HESM FIBK

Dividend Cut: ET 

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: IBTX

Guides Higher: (Yesterday) AMKR CHGG NXPI VRNS   (This Morning) AMD AWI CMI DXCM PFE PII TRU TPB

Guides Lower:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +9  Dow Jones Industrial Average +31   NASDAQ +52   Russell 2000 +4. Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe lower. Current VIX is at 32.56 from 27.32. 3 month VIX Future is at 32.07 from 28.99.

Gold lower with silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.66 from $138.53 with yields at 0.79% from 0.809%.

Positive Sectors On Monday:  None of note.

Negative Sectors On Monday: Energy, Industrials and Technology of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)


Wednesday Before The Open: MA UPS SNE BA ANTM BX ADP GE CME NSC BSX GD EPD TEL  of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:


LH +5.36, CMI +0.91, HOG +0.77, PII +0.66, DTE +0.55, SSTK +0.51, SHW +0.49, OMC +0.40, MSCI +0.39, MKTX +0.35, LECO +0.31, MRK +0.31, SPGI +0.30, CNC +0.30, HUBB +0.26, CROX +0.24, XRX +0.21, JBLU +0.20, ODFL +0.20, SWK +0.19, PPBI +0.18, CAT +0.17, TPB +0.17, SHOO +0.17, MMM +0.16, CSTM +0.16, MSM +0.15, BP +0.15, AWI +0.13, ROP +0.13, ST +0.11, CVLT +0.10, MMYT +0.10, AMD +0.10, RTX +0.08, NVS +0.06, WDR +0.06, IVZ +0.05, QSR +0.05, TRU +0.05, GLW +0.05, ABG +0.05, NEO +0.02, ARCC +0.01, PFE +0.01 of note.

Flat: SITC 0.00, TECK 0.00

Missed: QURE (2.47), EXAS (0.89), CEQP (0.17), LLY (0.17) of note.

Still To Report: ECL, FELE, BEN

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Table –  Updated 10/26 Close. The  A/D line was awful yesterday. Today we show our A/D Line Model Table as we are waiting to update pricing as new short interest data goes in the work.We have been invested and will likely go to cash after today’s close. To find out if we made the move request a trial.


Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – XLNX MRK CAT MMM(CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: U.S. cases up 20% in the last week. (CNBC)

Covid-19 cases hit new high since July.

Unofficially there is no stimulus deal as the Senate left to campaign the rest of the week. (Bloomberg)

Ant Group closes books on Hong Kong IPO. (Reuters)

National Institute of Health to halt study of cocktail that mixes Eli Lilly (LLY) antibody medication with Gilead’s (GILD) Remdesivir. (WSJ)

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 10/26 close. Yesterday was rather destructive.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/26 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting


The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data came out after the close and covers data from September 28th through October 13th during which the S&P 500 rose 1.19%. NYSE -0.45% and NASDAQ -1.94%.

September Durable Goods are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.7 % from 0.5%.

October Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 am. EDT and is expected to rise to 101.9 from 101.8.

Weekly API Petroleum Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump will hold MAGA rallies in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska. The president is getting some major frequent flyer miles this week.

 2 Year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Meetings Of Note:

HZNP (Conference Call)

Sellside Conferences: Credit Suisse TechFin and Telecom Virtual Conference (10/26-10/30). Credit Suisse Global ESG Series Conference (10/27)

Industry Conferences: OpenText World (10/26-10/29)


AMD to buy Xilinx (XLNX) for $35 billion.

Upgrades & Downgrades: Tuesday sees ASO get multiple upgrades as it comes out of the quiet period.

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