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11.27.2020 9 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (9)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 10/28/20: An Ugly Start To Day As Dow Off -615"

posted by CAPIS on 10/28/2020 at 7:38 am

by CAPIS

10/28/2020 at 7:38 am

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue into the election.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 8,723,438 from 8,660,366

Recovered 3,487,666 from 3,460,455

Deaths 218,349 from 217,418

Tests 1,052,874 from 1,153,040

New Cases 73,096 from 62,315 with positivity rate +6.1%

Daily Deaths 931 from 890

Current Hospitalizations 44,212 from 42,917

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: GATO Silver (GATO) priced at $7 which is the lower end of the range $7 to $9. Media Alpha (MAX) priced at $19 above expectations of $18. Root (ROOT) priced at $27 above range of $22 to $25. Biodesix (BDSX) priced at $18 with range of $17 to $19.

Secondaries Priced: MRTX EQT of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings: ALLK  EQT SPRK of note.

Selling Shareholders of note:  None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: None  of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings After The Close:

Beats:

ENVA +2.17, FSLR +0.80, DXCM +0.60, EEFT +0.59, UMBF +0.57, RRR +0.52, MSFT +0.46, KAI +0.34, TRMK +0.34, CYH +0.29, TEX +0.28, WIRE +0.27, SF +0.26, AFL +0.25, THG +0.24, SYX +0.23, CXO +0.20, CSGP +0.19, IEX +0.19, MASI +0.18, ACCO +0.17, EIX +0.17, NCR +0.15, MKSI +0.15, JBT +0.13, OI +0.12, VAR +0.11, OMCL +0.11, OKE +0.11, GLPI +0.10, RXN +0.10, AKAM +0.08, SKY +0.08, FTV +0.08, ENPH +0.06, TENB +0.06, MXIM +0.05, FISV +0.04, SWI +0.04, DENN +0.04, FEYE +0.04, APAM +0.03, EGP +0.03, HIW +0.03, AVTR +0.03, LSCC +0.03, CHRW +0.02, RNST +0.02, ESI +0.02, VECO +0.02, TWOU +0.01, FCPT +0.01  of note.

Flat: JNPR

Misses:

MTDR (2.31), RNR (0.28), CB (0.23), HA (0.23), SUM (0.11), UNM (0.09), BXP (0.06), RARE (0.06), EQR (0.05), FCF (0.04), PPD (0.02) of note.

News After The Close:

Apple (AAPL) to launch a current affairs series with Jon Stewart. (Hollywood Reporter)

Repligen (RGEN) to buy ARTeSYN Biosolutions for $200 million.

Callaway Golf (ELY) to buy TopGolf for $2 billion.

Exact Sciences (EXAS) issues comments on colorectal cancer guidelines to 45 from 50.

The Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series. Congrats to them!!! Baseball is now over until pitchers and catchers report in late February.

Dividend Increase: TNC BKH SHEN 

Dividend Cut:

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Stock Split: ROL (3:2)

Guides Higher:  DXCM EIX  FEYE OMCL PPD  TWOU (Yesterday)   (this morning) 

Guides Lower: ACC MSFT (yesterday)   (this morning)

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -66  Dow Jones Industrial Average -613   NASDAQ -185   Russell 2000 -31. Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe lower. Current VIX is at 33.35 from 32.56. 3 month VIX Future is at 32.72 from 32.07.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.95 from $138.66with yields at from 0.79%.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday:  Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Technology of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Industrials, Financial and Energy of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: V AMGN NOW GILD EQIX CTSH EBAY ORLY F KLAC PINS YUMC  of note.

Thursday Before The Open: CMCSA SNY SHOP AMT BUD FIS SO MMC ICE GPN MCO SPOT NEM DD of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat:

SNE +266.93, BG +2.27, SC +0.93, TUP +0.79, HZO +0.79, GRMN +0.58, BA +0.55, UTHR +0.54, WYND +0.50, EAT +0.44, ADP +0.43, OC +0.40, UPS +0.39, TT +0.38, GNRC +0.37, TEL +0.29, IART +0.26, MAS +0.26, AIT +0.25, SITE +0.24, YNDX +0.23, CRTO +0.20, TMHC +0.19, ETR +0.18, FLOW +0.16, SEE +0.16, BSX +0.12, BDC +0.11, MNRO +0.10, GE +0.09, PB +0.09, DT +0.08, BKU +0.08, CLS +0.07, BX +0.07, FVRR +0.06, DBD +0.05, BCPC +0.05, DAN +0.04, GRA +0.03, EXTR +0.03, ANTM +0.02, ROL +0.02, GD +0.02, RES +0.01, TW +0.01, FDP +0.01  of note.

Flat: NYCB, EPD, SLAB

Missed:

SIX (0.49), GWB (0.20), ARES (0.16), FSV (0.15), CME (0.06), CHEF (0.06), HES (0.04), HEES (0.02) of note.

Still To Report: 

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 10/27 Close. The  A/D line is a struggle this week. Our model did go to cash yesterday.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – BA BX GE FSLR (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: U.S. cases up now 21% in the last week. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

President Trump now leads in polls for Florida which is the first time since April. (RCP)

France may move to a one month lockdown. (Reuters)

Germany moves to a light lockdown for November. German Chancellor Merkel to speak at 10:00 a.m. EDT. (Times UK)

California Orange County fires still a problem and could have been caused by So Cal Edison (ED). (WSJ)

Apple (AAPL) working on own search engine. (FT)

Pfizer (PFE) will not produce a vaccine this month. (NYT)

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 10/27 close. Clearly we are now in a weak period.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/26 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

Weekly API Petroleum Data came out at 4:30 p.m. EDT yesterday and saw .

MBA Mortgage Applications came out at 7:00 a.m. EDT and

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related:

Bank of Canada out with latest interest rate decision at 9:00 a.m. EDT.

President Trump will hold MAGA rallies in Arizona before late at night heading to Florida. The president is getting some major frequent flyer miles this week.

Tech MegaCap names (TWTR FB GOOGL) to testify before Congress this morning.

5 Year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Bank of Japan out with latest interest rate decision at 7:00 p.m. EDT.

Meetings Of Note:

 CBLI (Conference Call) CTSDL MEEC (Webcast) BBBY (Investor Day)

Sellside Conferences: Credit Suisse TechFin and Telecom Virtual Conference (10/26-10/30).

Industry Conferences: OpenText World (10/26-10/29)

M&A:

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