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11.27.2020 9 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (9)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 10/29/30: Futures Higher, Lower and All Over The Place"

posted by CAPIS on 10/29/2020 at 7:32 am

by CAPIS

10/29/2020 at 7:32 am

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue into the election.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 8,802,099 from 8,723,438

Recovered 3,518,140 from 3,487,666

Deaths 219,374 from 218,349

Tests 1,055,866 from 1,052,874

New Cases 78,661 from 73,096 with positivity rate +6.3%

Daily Deaths 1,025 from 931

Current Hospitalizations 45,042 from 44,212

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: Leslie’s (LESL) priced at $17 which is the upper end of the range $14 to $16. Galecto (GLTO) priced at $15 in range of $114 to $16.  

Secondaries Priced:  RARE ALLK SPRK of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings:  WKHS of note.

Selling Shareholders of note:  BMRG None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: None  of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings After The Close:

Beats:

AMP +3.04, EQIX +2.08, MOH +1.18, URI +1.06, AMED +0.97, SU +0.90, ALGT +0.90, AFG +0.74, CNMD +0.65, AMGN +0.63, ORLY +0.63, CACI +0.62, PKI +0.60, RBC +0.52, F +0.47, CHDN +0.44, RGR +0.41, SCI +0.37, SAVE +0.35, SRI +0.33, CW +0.31, DORM +0.31, PPC +0.27, GILD +0.27, LVGO +0.25, AVT +0.24, GRUB +0.24, KLAC +0.24, TXRH +0.23, MMSI +0.22, PTC +0.21, GMED +0.18, NOW +0.18, SFM +0.17, YUMC +0.17, EGOV +0.17, TDOC +0.17, AXS +0.16, ASGN +0.16, CDE +0.14, PEN +0.14, CGNX +0.14, PLXS +0.14, ALSN +0.13, FBHS +0.13, AR +0.12, SSNC +0.11, ECHO +0.11, PINS +0.10, NTB +0.10, ETSY +0.10, WDC +0.10, AEM +0.09, SIGI +0.09, VVV +0.09, VICI +0.08, UCTT +0.08, HCC +0.08, BOOT +0.07, CHX +0.07, ISBC +0.07, MRC +0.07, CTSH +0.07, NLY +0.06, SPSC +0.06, TTMI +0.06, WCN +0.06, ENSG +0.05, FORM +0.05, WH +0.05, CONE +0.05, EHC +0.04, KRC +0.04, EGHT +0.04, SPWR +0.04, AEGN +0.04, BHE +0.04, ACA +0.03, BLKB +0.03, EBAY +0.03, PI +0.03, WRI +0.03, AGI +0.03, AM +0.03, WELL +0.03, RCII +0.02, V +0.02, RYN +0.02, CREE +0.02, CUZ +0.02, WERN +0.02, INOV +0.01, MAA +0.01, PE +0.01, NDLS +0.01 of note.

Flat: CERN +0.00, DRE +0.00, EQC +0.00, MOBL +0.00, TROX +0.00

Misses:

NGVT (0.72), MUSA (0.28), PEGA (0.26), MEOH (0.18), MSA (0.13), AVB (0.11), FSLY (0.03), OII (0.03), ESS (0.01), INVH (0.01), PGRE (0.01) SNDR, TNC, TRS  of note.

News After The Close:

Hurricane Zeta has made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico.

Northrop Grumman (NOC) may sell its technology service business.

Dividend Increase: CGNX CHDN WCN MUSA NEM  AMSF (special $3.50) 

Dividend Cut:

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Stock Split:

Guides Higher: ALSN AMED AFG ASGN CGNX CTSH ECHO ETSY FORM FBHS KLAC MOH EGOV PKI PINS RBC SFM UCTT VVV  (yesterday)  AOS ALXN ALKS AMT AME BWA BCO BC CVE CRL COHU COR THRM KTB SNY  (this morning) 

Guides Lower:  CREE  EHC FSLY PTC (yesterday)  ABMD BAX CFX FCN  (this morning)

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +7   Dow Jones Industrial Average +3   NASDAQ +64    Russell 2000 +1 . Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe lower. Current VIX is at 33.35 from 32.56. 3 month VIX Future is at 32.72 from 32.07.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.81 from $138.95 with yields at 0.769% from 0.79%.

Positive Sectors On Wednesday:  None of note.

Negative Sectors On Wednesday: Energy, Communication Services and Materials of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: AAPL AMZN GOOGL FB SBUX SYK ATVI TEAM of note.

Thursday Before The Open: ABBV XOM CVX HON CHTR MO CL AON LKX KKR PEG LYB of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat:

BPMC +1.80, CTB +1.72, ADS +1.18, MLM +0.94, VC +0.82, KTB +0.75, TPX +0.74, ALXN +0.64, SHOP +0.63, TAP +0.59, EME +0.53, CRL +0.53, TFX +0.53, PENN +0.49, BC +0.48, BCO +0.45, WD +0.45, THRM +0.42, GPI +0.42, MCO +0.36, AAN +0.36, TPR +0.36, USCR +0.32, UMC +0.32, CBRE +0.31, APTV +0.31, PWR +0.31, EXP +0.30, MDC +0.27, ALKS +0.26, SAIA +0.25, IDXX +0.25, LKQ +0.23, TKR +0.23, AMT +0.22, ATI +0.22, IP +0.22, YUM +0.22, CARR +0.21, LAZ +0.21, GIL +0.21, OSK +0.21, SLCA +0.19, SAH +0.18, MGLN +0.18, LIVN +0.18, TXT +0.17, MYE +0.16, PRLB +0.15, CMCSA +0.14, AOS +0.14, VNT +0.14, SYNH +0.14, DD +0.13, DNKN +0.13, HGV +0.12, XYL +0.12, NTCT +0.11, BAX +0.11, TROW +0.11, CTS +0.10, KEX +0.10, MMC +0.10, ROCK +0.09, BWA +0.09, SO +0.08, KHC +0.08, XEL +0.08, AME +0.07, RDS.A +0.06, HUN +0.06, CBZ +0.06, MGPI +0.06, JHG +0.06, ICE +0.05, GPN +0.05, NVCR +0.05, WAB +0.05, ABMD +0.04, COR +0.04, SNY +0.04, BXMT +0.03, NEM +0.03, IPHI +0.03, EXLS +0.03, WLTW +0.03, CHD +0.03, KDP +0.02, BUD +0.02, FLWS +0.02, CFX +0.02, TRP +0.01, FIS +0.01  of note.

Flat: COP +0.00

Missed:

CNX (1.06), NFE (0.31), CVE (0.30), MRNA (0.22), PBF (0.20), WEX (0.13), CG (0.10), INSM (0.03), SPOT (0.03), APO (0.02), FCN (0.01), CCC (0.01)of note.

Still To Report: ARW, CRAI, CMS, COHU, COLB, CFR, FSS, IDA, IMAX, ITGR, K, MPW, OSTK, PCRX, PATK, PRFT, RL, RCL

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 10/28 Close. The  A/D line is a struggle this week. Our model on the a/d line did go to cash Tuesday close.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – PINS BBY BBBY  (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Dr. Scott Gottlieb notes that cases will not peak before Thanksgiving. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

2 dead in knife attack in Nice, France. (BBC)

Dr. Fauci notes there will not be a vaccine until January. (Bloomberg)

Supreme Court rules against the Republicans and allows mail in ballots to be calculated days after the election in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. (NYT)

Senate divided on how to handle social media after yesterday’s testimony. (WSJ)

U.S. to let companies supply more components to Huawei. (FT)

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 10/28 close. Clearly we are now in a weak period.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/26 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

Weekly API Petroleum Data came out at 4:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday and saw .

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Q3 GDP is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 30.2% from -31.4%.

September Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 3.5% from 8.8%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump will hold MAGA rallies in Florida. First stop is Tampa at 1:35 p.m. EDT and then heads to North Carolina. First he will visit Fort Bragg. Then he heads to Fayetteville Regional Airport where he speaks at 6:30 p.m. EDT.

European Central Bank (ECB) is out with latest interest rate decision and presser at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

7 Year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Meetings Of Note:

AMST (Webcast)  SYATF WPM VEEV  (Investor Day) RCAR SCHW (Update)

Sellside Conferences: Credit Suisse TechFin and Telecom Virtual Conference (10/26-10/30). B.Riley Liver Disease Symposium (10/29)

Industry Conferences: OpenText World (10/26-10/29)

M&A:

Upgrades & Downgrades Of Note:

Today

Wednesday – We ran out of time in adding this yesterday. Enjoy!

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