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"CAPIS Morning Note – 10/30/20: A Wild Overnight Session"

posted by CAPIS on 10/30/2020 at 7:34 am

by CAPIS

10/30/2020 at 7:34 am

Remember to turn back your clocks this weekend as we leave daylight savings time and enter standard time.

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue into the election. Volatility ruled the overnight session as the S&P 500 traded from 3300 at the close down to 3280 back to 3290 and now are at 3277.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 8.890,551 from 8,802,099

Recovered 3,554,336 from 3,518,140

Deaths 220,423 from 219,374

Tests 1,314,850 from 1,055,866

New Cases 88,452 from 78,661  with positivity rate +6.4%

Daily Deaths 1,049 from 1,025

Current Hospitalizations 46,095 from 45,042

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: Atea Pharmaceuticals (AVIR) priced at $24 which is the upper end of the range $22 to $24. Lufax (LU) priced at $13.5 in range of $11.50 to $13.50.  

Secondaries Priced:  GLPI of note.

Notes Priced of note:  ARCH of note.

Common Stock filings: None  of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: ENV of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beat:

GOOGL +5.20, AMZN +5.01, CACC +2.49, SGEN +2.05, BIO +1.18, MHK +1.12, QDEL +1.08, UHS +1.01, DECK +0.90, CHE +0.89, SKYW +0.85, FB +0.80, CAR +0.73, SYK +0.71, RE +0.59, HIG +0.55, PLT +0.46, DRQ +0.44, MX +0.40, NVST +0.39, DVA +0.36, OLED +0.36, SSB +0.34, NUVA +0.31, VRTX +0.31, BAND +0.30, SEM +0.27, FWRD +0.27, EVTC +0.24, RMD +0.24, SXI +0.24, FND +0.23, MERC +0.23, AX +0.22, ILMN +0.22, SBUX +0.20, EMN +0.20, HLI +0.20, PFPT +0.20, WWE +0.20, CVNA +0.19, X +0.19, LMAT +0.18, LPSN +0.18, SM +0.18, BLDR +0.18, ADM +0.17, VCRA +0.17, MSI +0.17, ATVI +0.16, ATR +0.16, WW +0.16, MTZ +0.15, CATM +0.15, ACHC +0.14, BL +0.14, FHI +0.14, NGHC +0.14, TWTR +0.14, ATSG +0.13, AJG +0.13, SPXC +0.13, MGRC +0.13, ACGL +0.12, HUBG +0.11, WU +0.11, IDA +0.10, SKX +0.10, SHAK +0.10, FTNT +0.10, FIVN +0.09, FLEX +0.09, CWST +0.08, CVA +0.08, NTUS +0.08, BEAT +0.07, LPLA +0.06, LOCO +0.06, ZEN +0.06, DVN +0.06, DLR +0.05, MTX +0.05, PSMT +0.05, KTOS +0.05, PRO +0.05, SWN +0.05, CAKE +0.05, CXP +0.05, OIS +0.05, AAPL +0.03, TEAM +0.03, OHI +0.03, OFC +0.02, EXPO +0.02, HTGC +0.02, NATI +0.02, INT +0.02, AUY +0.02, COG +0.02, MDRX +0.01, ETH +0.01, KBR +0.01, MPWR +0.01, PDM +0.01, WRE +0.01 of note.

Flat: CDNA +0.00, KN +0.00

Misses:

PTCT (2.50), KNSL (0.35), COLM (0.32), ATUS (0.26), FTAI (0.23), CPT (0.15), POWI (0.12), UDR (0.08), MGM (0.06), AIV (0.06), PEB (0.05), AEL (0.04), RRC (0.04), TRUP (0.03), HPP (0.01), PVG (0.01)  of note.

News After The Close:

Nordstrom (JWN) to hire 800 in the Seattle area for Nordstrom and Nordstrom Rack stores.

Apple (AAPL) beats BUT does not give Q1 revenue guidance.

Only Google (GOOGL) is higher among the FAANG names that reports with Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (FB) lower.

Fluor (FLR) wins a 5 year contract with the U.S. General Services Administration.

Boeing (BA) wins a $340 million Air Force contract.

Eli Lilly (LLY) wins a $410 million Army contract.

Dr. Fauci sees Covid-19 vaccines for high risk Americans available late December or early January.

Dividend Increase: MGM 

Dividend Cut:

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Stock Split:

Guides Higher:  FTNT PFPT ZEN PLT EMN  (yesterday) 

Guides Lower:   TEAM SBUX COLM (yesterday)

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -23   Dow Jones Industrial Average -203   NASDAQ -95    Russell 2000 -6 . Fair values are lower.  Asia lower and Europe mixed. Current VIX is at 37.59 from 40.28 from 32.56. 3 month VIX Future is at 35.84 from 37.75.

Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures mixed. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.48 from $138.81 with yields at 0.825% from 0.769%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday: Energy, Materials and Technology  of note.

Negative Sectors On Thursday: Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: None of note.

Moday Before The Open: ABBV XOM CVX HON CHTR MO CL AON LKX KKR PEG LYB of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat:

POR +1.22, PSX +0.74, LEA +0.67, CHTR +0.64, NWL +0.40, CVX +0.38, BR +0.35, PNM +0.32, UAA +0.23, BAH +0.23, GT +0.17, FTS +0.16, LYB +0.14, ITT +0.11, FLIR +0.10, LHX +0.10, CL +0.09, XOM +0.09, XHR +0.09, KKR +0.08, HON +0.07, WY +0.07, AON +0.05, NVT +0.05, WPC +0.05, ABBV +0.05, CBOE +0.04, MO +0.03, PBI +0.03, WETF +0.02   of note.

Flat: COP +0.00

Missed:

FBP (0.05), PQG (0.04), PSXP (0.01), PEG (0.01) of note.

Still To Report: AXL, IPGP, LGND, MMP, PNW, PFS, ROLL, SJR, SHLX

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 10/29 Close. The  A/D line is a struggle this week. Our model on the a/d line did go to cash Tuesday close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

EQ +26%, TRUP +15%, ZEN +13%, PDM +13%, PLT +12%, ACHC +12%, FLEX +11%, MHK +11%, SPXC +9%, RMD +8%, FIVN +7%, NTUS +6%, GOOG +6%, CACC +6%, PKI +5%, SEM +5%, BLDP +4%, YJ +4%, MX +4%, SKYW +4%.

Gap Down:

AXGT -33%, COLM -15%, LOCO -15%, TWTR -14%, CAR -10%, OPK -10%, DVN -7%, TEAM -6%, ARCH -6%, KNSL -6%, FE -6%, SGEN -5%, MTZ -5%, NUVA -5%, X -5%, ATSG -5%, SHAK -4%, AAPL -4%, COG -4%, MDRX -4%, LPSN -4%, FND -4%, FTAI -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – TWTR AAPL AMZN UA   (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: U.S. cases hit new high as Idaho and Tennessee sees cases rise to new highs. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are critical of each other and there is now zero chance of a stimulus deal pre-election. (The Washington Post)

Exxon Mobil (XOM) to cut 15% of global workforce. (WSJ)

Walmart (WMT) removes guns from its stores through election week. (Bloomberg)

Lowe’s (LOW) to hire 20,000  for holidays and beyond.

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 10/29 close. Clearly we are now in a weak period.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/29 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

September Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise at 0.3% from -2.7%.

October Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 59% from 62.4%.

October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 81.2 from 80.4.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump will hold MAGA rallies in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota today.

Meetings Of Note:

AXGT (R&D Day)  

Sellside Conferences: Credit Suisse TechFin and Telecom Virtual Conference (10/26-10/30).

Industry Conferences: ACOG Conference (10/30-10/31)

M&A:

Upgrades & Downgrades Of Note:

Today

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