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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note -11/2/20 The Final Countdown"

posted by CAPIS on 11/02/2020 at 7:43 am

by CAPIS

11/02/2020 at 7:43 am

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue into the election. Today’s move higher makes sense after last week’s drop. Will it hold?

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 9,151,390 from 8,890,551

Recovered 3,630,579 from 3,554,336

Deaths 222,704 from 220,423

Tests 1,068,044 from 1,314,850

New Cases 73,701 from 88,452 with positivity rate +6.6%

Daily Deaths 2,281 from 1,049

Current Hospitalizations 47,502 from 46,095

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced: None of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings: FENC of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: SGC BIOX FUBO of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  ACNB SGC EQIX GEO of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beat:

None of note.

Misses:

BCC +1.19 of note.

News After The Close:

Britain shut down until early December.

Barron’s + ZNGA PH LFUS TEL on and mixed to negative on AMD.

Dividend Increase: EVA

Dividend Cut:

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Stock Split:

Guides Higher:    

Guides Lower:    

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +39.04    Dow Jones Industrial Average +374 NASDAQ +93  Russell 2000 +25.82 . Fair values are lower.  Asia and Europe higher. Current VIX is at 38.02 from 37.59. 3 month VIX Future is at 36.27 from 35.84.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures mixed. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.25 from $138.48  with yields at from 0.825%.

Positive Sectors On Friday: Energy of note.

Negative Sectors On Friday: Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Utilities of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: PYPL MDLZ SBAC SWKS WMB NTR O ANET STE IR PEAK LNT SEDG FMC of note.

Tuesday Before The Open: HUM ETN EMR EXC TRI RACE SYY JCI WEC W MCK FOXA ZBRA EXPD of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat:

JLL +1.74, CLX +1.00, HZNP +0.77, MPC +0.74, EL +0.54, LL +0.45, CWH +0.41, INGR +0.32, CDW +0.32, LITE +0.31, LCII +0.30, HSIC +0.26, LDOS +0.23, BWXT +0.13, HLIO +0.12, CNA +0.11, XENT +0.10, FE +0.10, IAA +0.09, WM +0.07, NI +0.06, NLSN +0.04, ON +0.03, MPLX +0.03  of note.

Flat: WING +0.00

Missed:

TEN (0.22), USFD (0.02), AMCX (0.02), DEA (0.01), MSGN (0.01) of note.

Still To Report: NSP, ITRI, MGP, NNN

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 10/30 Close. The  A/D line is pulling back. Our model on the a/d line did go to cash last Tuesday close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

DBVT +92%, DNOW +14%, NLSN +10%, LL +9%, RYTM +9%, XPEV +8%, NIO +8%, LI +7, DNKN +6%, BCC +5%, GCO +4%

Gap Down:

BIOZ -12% USFD -3%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves On Analyst Calls – WYNN TMUS UAA   (CNBC)

Stocks making the biggest moves – CLX EL DNKN. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: WHO head enters quarantine, Regeneron drug will be in short supply. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

Senate could be split 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans. (RealClearPolitics)

President Trump says he will fire Dr. Fauci next week. (Bloomberg)

Dr. Fauci notes that U.S. “cannot be positioned more poorly ” heading into fall. (The Washington Post)

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 10/30 close. Clearly we are now in a weak period.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/29 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

September Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.9% from 1.4%.

October ISM Manufacturing Index is also due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 55.7% from 55.4%.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump will hold MAGA rallies in Fayetteville, North Carolina (11:45 a.m. EST), Avoca,  Pennsylvania (2:15 EST), Traverse City, Michigan (5:15 p.m. EST), Kenosha, Wisconsin (8:00 p.m. EST) and then Grand Rapids, MI (10:30 p.m. EST)  today.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) latest minutes out at 9:00 p.m. EST.

Meetings Of Note:

TRVN AKTS (Update)  F (Fireside Chat with Credit Suisse)

Sellside Conferences: Bank of America China Conference (11/2-11/13) Goldman Sachs Virtual China Conference (11/2-11/6) Gabelli Research Annual Auto  Aftermarket Symposium (11/2-11/3)

Industry Conferences: Next Generation CAR and T Cell Therapies Conference 2020. (11/2-11/5) Precious Metals Summit Europe 2020 (11/2-11/3)

M&A:

Inspire Brands to buy Dunkin (DNKN) for $106.50.

Upgrades & Downgrades Of Note For Today:

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