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"CAPIS Morning Note – 11/5/20: S&P 500 Rally Extends To A Fourth Day"

posted by CAPIS on 11/05/2020 at 7:37 am

by CAPIS

11/05/2020 at 7:37 am

Election results continue to roll in and it looks like the House stays with the Democrats and the Republicans control the Senate while the presidency is likely to go to Democratic Candidate Former Vice President Joe Biden. Markets get ready for a Federal Reserve  announcement at 2:00 p.m. EST and 2:30 p.m. EST press conference.

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue post election. Stocks have put together a strong three day rally. That up action continues this morning. Impressive.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 9,424,893 from 9,321,806

Recovered 3,743,527 from 3,705,130

Deaths 225,831 from 224,265

Tests 1,207,119 from 1,126,224

New Cases 103,087 from 86,507  with positivity rate +7.1%

Daily Deaths 1,566 from 1,079

Current Hospitalizations 52,049 from 50,340

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced:  ICE of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings:  AVTR RAPT of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: ICE of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: RAPT MGNX  of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beat:

UHAL +9.00, ALL +1.18, RGNX +1.13, HOLX +0.88, QRVO +0.81, EXPE +0.57, PRI +0.43, PLUS +0.41, PDCE +0.40, MTW +0.39, DK +0.38, ALB +0.33, LC +0.31, LHCG +0.29, AXNX +0.28, QCOM +0.27, XEC +0.26, FNF +0.25, SGMO +0.24, SUN +0.24, APA +0.23, KAMN +0.22, FNV +0.19, WTS +0.18, TRMB +0.18, QLYS +0.17, SJI +0.17, TYL +0.17, PRAH +0.16, SYKE +0.16, GNW +0.16, WK +0.16, SLF +0.16, CCRN +0.15, MET +0.15, GDOT +0.14, TSLX +0.14, JKHY +0.14, PAYC +0.14, MDU +0.13, NUS +0.12, VRSK +0.12, WHD +0.12, HST +0.12, LNC +0.11, ANSS +0.10, LUMN +0.10, UNVR +0.10, PODD +0.10, RDN +0.10, PING +0.09, AWK +0.08, BLUE +0.08, MTG +0.08, PRGO +0.07, MELI +0.07, TWO +0.07, CHNG +0.07, CXW +0.07, OSUR +0.07, MRTX +0.07, EQH +0.06, EXR +0.06, VGR +0.06, VAPO +0.05, STAA +0.05, FROG +0.05, FOE +0.04, RPD +0.04, OUT +0.04, RLJ +0.04, TTGT +0.04, ELF +0.03, IAG +0.03, CTVA +0.03, PSA +0.03, HR +0.02, DCP +0.01, CLI +0.01, QTWO +0.01, INGN +0.01 of note.

Flat: AEE +0.00, FTDR +0.00, MRO +0.00, RGLD +0.00

Misses:

OLN (4.45), EPR (0.72), GDDY (0.69), QGEN (0.54), ET (0.53), CMP (0.51), SGMS (0.43), VVNT (0.42), CF (0.22), ZNGA (0.20), VOYA (0.19), H (0.17), ACAD (0.16), VAC (0.14), PLYA (0.11), PXD (0.08), MTCH (0.07), BRX (0.04), LCI (0.04), PAAS (0.04), CRY (0.03), KGC (0.02), ORCC (0.02), CSGS (0.01), UPWK (0.01), KRO (0.01) of note.

News After The Close:

Costco (COST) sees October comps rise +14.4%  against September rise of +15.5%.

Michigan goes for Joe Biden raising electoral college votes.

Electoral College vote is at 264 to 214 in favor of Biden with 270 the number needed. (includes Arizona)

Guidance Raised: QRVO JKHY  HOLX QCOM GDDY GDOT UPWK ZNGA ALB ELF QLYS (after the close)

Guidance Lowered:

Dividend Increase: GOLD LXP

Dividend Cut:

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: FISI GRAY

Stock Split:

Hourly Action:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +60  Dow Jones Industrial Average +134 NASDAQ +419 Russell 2000 -11.60. Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe higher. Current VIX is at 35.55 from 37.13. 3 month VIX Future is at 33.52 from 35.06.

Gold and silver higher and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.05 from $138.73 with the yield at 0.753% from 0.785%.

Positive Sectors On Wednesday: Communication Services, Healthcare and Technology of note.

Negative Sectors On Wednesday: Materials, Utilities, Industrials and Financials of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close:  TMUS SQ BKNG UBER BIDU MNST EA PTON RSG MCHP TTD ROKU of note.

Friday Before The Open: CVS ENB MAR HSY ZBH TU CQP VIAC MGA VTR ELAN AES LNG of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat:

BABA +4.22, GM +1.40, REGN +1.37, HII +1.31, MDP +1.04, CPRI +0.85, PH +0.80, ODP +0.71, NXST +0.64, VSTO +0.46, LAMR +0.46, SAGE +0.44, CAH +0.37, SATS +0.36, XRAY +0.35, GTN +0.35, TECH +0.33, WCC +0.32, MIDD +0.31, IIVI +0.29, EYE +0.28, CRON +0.27, BDX +0.25, YETI +0.24, SHYF +0.23, TGI +0.21, ZTS +0.19, KELYA +0.19, EPAM +0.18, CI +0.18, REZI +0.17, EVRG +0.17, OSB +0.17, WNC +0.16, COMM +0.14, BMY +0.14, CNQ +0.13, DISCA +0.13, RGEN +0.12, BLL +0.12, SRCL +0.11, GOOS +0.11, CORE +0.11, LNTH +0.10, NYT +0.10, NTLA +0.10, THS +0.10, D +0.09, HFC +0.09, GOLD +0.09, NWN +0.07, DUK +0.07, AAON +0.07, WWW +0.07, PBH +0.06, NS +0.06, IRM +0.06, WRK +0.06, CEVA +0.05, CNP +0.04, VG +0.04, TMX +0.04, SPNS +0.04, STNG +0.04, STWD +0.03, BCE +0.03, OGE +0.03, IBP +0.03, MUR +0.03, HBI +0.03, CNK +0.02, ECOM +0.02, STOR +0.02, DNB +0.02, NOMD +0.02, ABC +0.02, EVOP +0.01 of note.

Flat:  

Missed:

LAUR (3.89), NRG (0.85), STRA (0.73), GEL (0.53), INCY (0.53), CCOI (0.35), SRE (0.21), SEAS (0.18), WMS (0.18), ACIW (0.18), QRTEA (0.17), FOUR (0.17), CWEN (0.15), TREE (0.13), ARNC (0.09), FOCS (0.09), AGIO (0.07), AZN (0.05), VMC (0.05), AMRN (0.03), KIM (0.01), CGEN (0.01)  of note.

Still To Report: AEIS, ALNY, AAWW, CHH, IDCC, MLCO, PPL, USPH, VCEL

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/4 Close. The  A/D line struggled on Wednesday despite index strength of S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

UPWK +28%, APHA +15%, QCOM +14%, MGNX +11%, CPRI +10%, MTW +8%, JCS +8%, WK +8%, QLYS +8%, PRGO +7%, LUMN +7%, ET +7%, CCRN +7%, MELI +6%, COMM +6%, CRY +5%, GMAB +5%, CXW +5%, YETI +5%, CHNG +5%, EXPE +5%, DCP +5%, PZZA +4%, FOE +4%, LBTYA +4%, IRM +4%, BDSI +4%, KGC +4%, AWK +4%, PDCE +4%

Gap Down:

LCI -14%, BLUE -13%, PING -13%, FTDR -10%, INGN -8%, ELF -7%, TISI -5%, AVTR -5%, CMP -4%, SGMS -4%, ING -4%, ZNGA -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks making the biggest moves – W JAZZ CRUS. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Oxford sees trial vaccines this year. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

House Speaker Pelosi may have a tough time winning another term as the speaker. (Politico)

Italy locks down six regions as Covid-19 spreads. (NYT)

Apple (AAPL) faces chip shortages for iPhone 12. (Bloomberg)

Stock Index Trading & Key Moving Averages:

Current through 11/4 close. Improvement across the board again yesterday.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/4 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

The FOMC will conclude its meeting with their announcement at 2:00 p.m. EST followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump has no public events scheduled.

Meetings Of Note:

CYDY (Update) AGR (Investor Day)

Sellside Conferences: Bank of America China Conference (11/2-11/13) Goldman Sachs Virtual China Conference (11/2-11/6) Credit Suisse LatAM Basic Materials Virtual Conference (11/4-11/5) Cowen Post Election Forum (11/5) Jefferies CIO Summit (11/5)

Industry Conferences: Next Generation CAR and T Cell Therapies Conference 2020. (11/2-11/5)

M&A:

Aphria (APHA) to buy SweetWater Brewing company for $300 million.

Kimball (KBAL) to buy Poppin for $110 million in cash.

Upgrades & Downgrades Of Note For Today:

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