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11.27.2020 9 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (9)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note- 11/6/20: Jobs Beat Estimate As Added 638,000 vs 530,000 Estimate"

posted by CAPIS on 11/06/2020 at 7:35 am

by CAPIS

11/06/2020 at 7:35 am

Election results continue to roll in and it looks like the House stays with the Democrats and the Republicans control the Senate while the presidency is likely to go to Democratic Candidate Former Vice President Joe Biden. It appears that we will head into the weekend without a confirmed president and the Trump campaign mounts legal challenges in multiple states.

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue post election. Stocks have put together a strong four day rally. That up action was lower but is on the rebound after a strong jobs report. Impressive.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 9,541,148 from 9,424,893

Recovered 3,781,751 from 3,743,527

Deaths 226,955 from 225,831

Tests 1,537,316 from 1,207,119

New Cases 116,255 from 103,087 with positivity rate +7.3%

Daily Deaths 1,124 from 1,566

Current Hospitalizations 53,322 from 52,049

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced: FBC AVTR of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings:   None of note.

Selling Shareholders of note:  RUN TWLO TTCF FBC of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: OYST JLL ANTM  of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beat:

BMRN +3.76, STMP +2.37, IAC +2.35, HHC +2.04, BHF +1.75, RGA +1.74, PFSI +1.54, RRGB +1.37, TSE +1.26, FGEN +1.16, MTD +1.05, TPIC +0.93, TTD +0.82, EDIT +0.75, USM +0.70, KWR +0.62, TMUS +0.60, ICUI +0.59, GRPN +0.55, BFAM +0.51, ROKU +0.51, XPO +0.44, DLX +0.43, ATGE +0.40, GKOS +0.39, ENDP +0.38, TDS +0.36, IRTC +0.33, JJSF +0.31, CSOD +0.30, NVRO +0.30, PRAA +0.28, HLF +0.28, DXC +0.27, RUN +0.26, ZG +0.26, AYX +0.25, EOG +0.25, EA +0.24, RDFN +0.24, PCTY +0.23, PRIM +0.23, OTEX +0.22, ICFI +0.21, ATRC +0.20, AAXN +0.20, CHUY +0.19, LGF.A +0.19, RSG +0.19, SYNA +0.18, SQ +0.18, ALRM +0.18, BGS +0.17, APPN +0.17, EVBG +0.16, SAIL +0.16, HUBS +0.15, CARG +0.15, FLT +0.15, CNDT +0.14, GPRO +0.14, NKTR +0.14, RBA +0.14, MCHP +0.13, AMN +0.13, COLL +0.13, ENV +0.13, TDC +0.13, BIGC +0.12, MITK +0.12, ECOL +0.12, VSAT +0.12, SWX +0.11, AVLR +0.11, LASR +0.11, NWSA +0.10, NMIH +0.10, CLR +0.09, MMI +0.09, IRWD +0.08, PTON +0.08, ALTR +0.08, INFN +0.08, TRIP +0.08, UPLD +0.07, ACLS +0.07, DBX +0.07, OEC +0.07, RP +0.07, CDAY +0.07, MANT +0.07, BNFT +0.06, TRUE +0.06, NFG +0.06, PS +0.06, DDD +0.05, FLS +0.05, EBS +0.04, LSI +0.04, RMAX +0.04, BILL +0.04, EPAY +0.04, VIAV +0.04, CABO +0.03, CUBE +0.03, NSA +0.03, NET +0.03, EXEL +0.03, AINV +0.03, FLO +0.03, NLOK +0.03, IGMS +0.03, LOPE +0.03, MTSI +0.02, MNST +0.02, INSG +0.02, TWNK +0.02, FRT +0.01, MXL +0.01, SWCH +0.01, GLUU +0.01, AMH +0.01 of note.

Flat: COLD BLDP NNI  PRDO  STAG  YELP

Misses:

CZR (4.06), WYNN (3.15), PETQ (2.71), BKNG (2.40), PBYI (0.45), GH (0.42), IOVA (0.40), TTWO (0.35), LYV (0.32), FATE (0.32), GBT (0.28), AIG (0.23), ADT (0.23), LMNX (0.17), REG (0.16), CYRX (0.16), PLNT (0.10), XLRN (0.10), NVTA (0.10), UBER (0.08), NEWR (0.08), AGO (0.07), LTHM (0.06), PRA (0.06), VLDR (0.06), SPCE (0.06), WSC (0.06), ANGI (0.04), ED (0.03), DRH (0.03), SHO (0.03), TNDM (0.03), AMCR (0.02), NTRA (0.02), PBA (0.02), SRPT (0.02), CWK (0.01), PK (0.01), ZIOP (0.01), PGNY (0.01), MAIN (0.01) of note.

News After The Close:

Walt Disney (DIS) pulls December movies Free Guy and Death.

Guidance Raised:  AVLR FLO HUBS  RDFN (after the close)

Guidance Lowered: AYX ERTS TTWO

Dividend Increase: 

Dividend Cut:

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: TMO

Stock Split:

Hourly Action:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -9  Dow Jones Industrial Average -19 NASDAQ -70 Russell 2000 +0.20. Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe lower. Current VIX is at 27.58 from 35.55. 3 month VIX Future is at 29.05 from 33.52.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.80 from $139.05 with the yield at .80% from 0.753%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday:Materials, Technology, Industrials and Financials of note.

Negative Sectors On Thursday: None of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close:  None of note.

Monday Before The Open: MCD BP BKI HWM CGC RETA CNNE ALE TGNA  of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat:

PRSC +1.27, UI +1.02, ZBH +0.73, UFS +0.59, MGA +0.58, GOLF +0.55, DISH +0.33, CVS +0.32, SSP +0.25, MBUU +0.25, COTY +0.18, ESNT +0.16, HSY +0.14, MAR +0.14, VIAC +0.11, HRC +0.10, VIRT +0.09, GCP +0.09, TILE +0.07, EPZM +0.05, VTR +0.04, AMRX +0.04 of note.

Flat:  ELAN HMSY

Missed:

MYL (0.80), SABR (0.10), MD (0.03), ENB (0.03), TU (0.03), AES (0.01) of note.

Still To Report: CWT, LNG, CQP, MOG.A, DOC

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/5 Close. The  A/D line improved on Thursday with index strength of S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

IRWD +22%, GPRO +21%, CNDT +16%, INSG +15%, TTD +12%, GLUU +11%, NET +11%, FTCH +11%, ZG +10%, YELP +10%, FBNC +8%, TSE +8%, HALO +8%, IAC +8%, HLF +7%, GOLF +7%, GKOS +6%, TMUS +6%, ENDP +6%, LASR +6%, MTG +5%, AMRX +5%, EVBG +5%, AVLR +5%, APPN +4%, SQ +4%, ROKU +4%, TFFP +4%, RUN +4%, RUN +4%, PFSI +4%, MD +4%, COLL +4%, MTSI +4%, MD +4%, LGF.A +4%

Gap Down:

ASMB -37%, GBT -29%, NEWR -13%, MRAM -12%, PS -12%, AZPN -10%, AFMD -9%, AYX -9%, NVRO -8%, TDC -8%, STMP -8%, PETQ -8%, EA -7%, PBYI -7%, PBYI -7%, TNDM -7%, PTON -7%, FLS -6%, ANGI -6%, RDFN -6%, WSC -6%, NLOK -6%, CYRX -5%, DBX -5%, TWLO -4%, PLNT -4%, BHF -4%, GLPG -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks making the biggest moves – W JAZZ CRUS. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Oxford sees trial vaccines this year. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

Election results for the presidency remain too close to call in AZ, NV, GA, NC, PA but Former Vice President Joe Biden has now taken the lead in GA and PA along with AZ and NV.

President Trump says he may run again in 2024 if he loses. He will be 78 then, older than Joe Biden. (NYT)

Republican gains in state elections may help them with redistricting. (Poltico)

General Motors (GM) may sell full size SUVs in China. (Reuters)

Nevada to release more votes at 10:00 a.m. EST

AZ to release more votes at 11:00 a.m. EST and 9:00 a.m. EST.

Stock Index Trading & Key Moving Averages:

Current through 11/5 close. All indexes and all moving averages are now positive. Amazing recovery this week.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/5 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

October Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 570,000 from 661,000. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 7.7% from 7.9%. Jobs grew at 638,000 and unemployment rate fell to 6.9%.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump has no public events scheduled.

Meetings Of Note:

IVA CWBR  (Webcast)  Y (Investor Meeting)

Sellside Conferences: Bank of America China Conference (11/2-11/13) Goldman Sachs Virtual China Conference (11/2-11/6) HSBC Global Emerging Markets Forum (11/6)

Industry Conferences: None of note.

M&A:

Upgrades & Downgrades Of Note For Today:

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