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"CAPIS Morning Note: 11/10/20: NASDAQ Paradox"

posted by CAPIS on 11/09/2020 at 6:04 pm

by CAPIS

11/09/2020 at 6:04 pm

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows. Expect volatility to continue post election as the President refuses to “bend the knee”. Stocks, ex the NASDAQ Composite, ripped on Monday before dropping into the close. This morning sees NASDAQ stocks falling while Small Cap Index, the Russell 2000 are higher, we call this the NASDAQ Paradox.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases  9,991,822 from 9,871,751

Recovered 3,928,845 from 3,881,491

Deaths 230,312 from 229,724

Tests 1,482,184 from 1,246,130

New Cases 118,708 from 110,270 with positivity rate +8.6% (up 0.4%)

Daily Deaths 2,769

Current Hospitalizations 59,275 from 56,768

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced:  None of note.

Notes Priced of note:  SQ of note.

Common Stock filings: FSR FBIO AAL VITL of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: FSR ACTG of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: AVEO ACTG BNTX of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close on Friday:

Beat:

AL +0.23, TLND +0.21, ELY +0.21, TLRY +0.18, ARNA +0.17, SWAV +0.17, MBI +0.14, RAMP +0.10, HAIN +0.08, STAY +0.08, INO +0.08, SCSC +0.08, TCO +0.08, IPAR +0.06, DHT +0.04, DIOD +0.03, WES +0.03, OR +0.03, SPT +0.03, MWA +0.02, NKLA +0.02, RNG +0.02, ZIXI +0.02, ZI +0.02, NHI +0.01, WPM +0.01, RPAY +0.01  of note.

Misses:

NVAX (5.48), AMBC (1.34), BYND (0.33), NBIX (0.28), SPG (0.24), ZGNX (0.15), NCLH (0.13), OXY (0.12), SCOR (0.10), GSKY (0.07), NGL (0.07), IFF (0.06), REAL (0.03), CNXN (0.02), OSH (0.01) of note.

News After The Close:

Novavax (NVAX) names Gregory F. Covino as CFO.

Adobe (ADBE) buys Workfront for $1.5 billion.

Rumor: Lowe’s (LOW) may bid for HD Supply (HDS) which ironic because HD Supply was spun out of Home Depot (HD). Lowe’s denies this morning.

Xperi (XPER) enters long term patent license with Comcast (CMCSA).

Micron (MU) begins volume shipments of 176-layer 3D NAND flash memory.

Nvidia Drive (NVDA) to be used in entire lineup of Hyundai, Kia and Genesis models starting in 2022.

Boeing (BA) wins $660 million Air Force contract while Lockheed Martin (LMT) wins a $260 million contract.

Federal Reserve issues Financial Stability Report for November 2020, says asset prices remain vulnerable to investor risk sentiment or economic weakness.

Boeing (BA) may get a 30 737 Max order from Southwest Airlines (LUV).

Guidance Raised:   ZI  XPER

Guidance Lowered: BYND MWA

Dividend Increase:  

Dividend Cut:

10-Q Delays: VRS NVAX

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: VNOM

Stock Split:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -15  Dow Jones Industrial Average +106 NASDAQ -195 Russell 2000 +29.56 . Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe higher. Current VIX is at 25.75 from 24.86. 3 month VIX Future is at 26.88 from 25.05.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is a $137.66 from $137.84 with the yield at 0.942% from 0.917%.

Positive Sectors On Monday: Energy, Financial, Industrial and Real Estate of note.

Negative Sectors On Monday: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: RKT DDOG ALC TIME IQ TXG FICO LYFT DOX ADPT ASH BRKS GO FOXF of note.

Wednesday Before The Open: APD GIB HUYA DOYU LMND APG ADNT ZNTL  of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat:

DHI +0.46, CRSR +0.28, AAP +0.14, ROK +0.12, TCP +0.10, BSY +0.04, NOVT +0.03, CYBR +0.02 of note.

Flat: 

Missed:

BNTX (0.51), ERJ (0.38), IMOS (0.26), AER (0.16) of note.

Still To Report: CAE

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/9 Close. The  A/D line was strong at +3128 but the A/D line of the NASDAQ 100 was awful is it fell -2.04%.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up: XPER +25%, FLGT +20%, ALT +15%, VNOM +11%, AFMD +11%, SCOR +9%, WES +8%, IPAR +7%, INO +6%, TLND +5%, SFT +5%, AMGN +4%, ZI +4%, DBVT +4%, ZIXI +4%

Gap Down: BYND -18%, ARNA -18%, ARNA -18%, RAMP -10%, TLRY -10%, NBIX -9%, REAL -7%, NVAX -6%, NVAX -6%, RVNC -6%, IFF -6%, ZGNX -5%, FSR -5%, TXMD -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks making the biggest moves – BYND LOW MSFT TSLA . (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before Tuesday’s Action. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Gottlieb says cases about to explode in U.S. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

Republicans and Democrats in the Senate still fighting over stimulus bill. (Bloomberg)

Department of Justice led by Attorney General William Barr to look into alleged voter fraud. (Axios)

FAA may give approval to Boeing (BA) by next week, 11/18.

Stock Index Trading & Key Moving Averages:

Current through 11/9 close. All indexes and all moving averages are now positive. Amazing recovery last week.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/9 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close and covers from trade date of October 13th through October 28th. During this period, the S&P 500 fell -6.86%. Surely, the shorts added or did they sit on their hands?

Weekly API Petroleum Institute Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump has no public events scheduled. Expect the fight to contest states will continue.

The Supreme Court begins its case on the Affordable Care Care.

Federal Reserve Governor Randall Quarles will speak at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will speak at 5:00 p.m. EDT.

10 Year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Meetings Of Note:

SFE SPOK CCC ACIW NDAQ NOMD BBD ADDYY (Investor Meeting)

Sellside Conferences: Bank of America Future of Financials Conference (11/9-11/10) Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference (11/9-11/12) Baird Global Industrial Conference (11/10-11/12) Bank o America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference (11/10-11/12) Wolfe Research Industrials Conference (11/10-11/16) Morgan Stanley Global Chemicals, Agriculture and Packaging Conference (11/10-11/11) Morgan Stanley Life After Covid Thematic Conference (11/10-11/12)

Industry Conferences: Apple Mac Event (11/10).

M&A:

Adobe (ADBE) buys Workfront for $1.5 billion.

Recommendations By Sellside Firms: Upgrades and Downgrades

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