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"CAPIS Morning Note – 11/12/20: NASDAQ Reasserts Itself The Past Two Days & Powell To Speak"

posted by CAPIS on 11/12/2020 at 7:43 am

by CAPIS

11/12/2020 at 7:43 am

Breaking News: U.S. Military Helicopter Crashes in Egypt.

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Expect volatility to continue post election as the President refuses to “bend the knee”. Stocks, ex the NASDAQ Composite, ripped on Monday before dropping sharply into the close. On Tuesday we saw a mixed day.  Yesterday saw the NASDAQ Composite recover while the Russell 2000 was lower.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 10,267,081 from 10,122,811

Recovered 3,997,175 from 3,961,873

Deaths 233,080 from 231,659

Tests 1,381,858 from 1,237,365

New Cases 144,270 from 130,989 with positivity rate +9.3% (up 0.3%)

Daily Deaths 1,422 from 1,347

Current Hospitalizations 65,368 from 61,964

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: None of note.

Secondaries Priced:  None of note.

Notes Priced of note: ESPR of note.

Common Stock filings: FRC of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close on Yesterday:

Beat:

IGT +0.49, SPTN +0.33, CCMP +0.21, HI +0.20, RVLV +0.13, TTEK +0.10, VRM +0.08, REYN +0.05, GTBIF +0.04, MFC +0.03, ATO +0.02, ENS +0.01  of note.

Misses:

None of note.

News After The Close:

Allegiant Travel (ALGT) sees passenger traffic down -20.8% year over year.

Alibaba (BABA) brought in $74.1 billion from its Shopping Festival.

President-Elect Biden names Ron Klain as his Chief of Staff.

Dividend Increase:  RLI (Special $1) ATO 

Stock Split: SF 3:2

10-Q Delays:

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: 

Stock Split:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -11    Dow Jones Industrial Average -200  NASDAQ +29  Russell 2000 -11. Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe lower. Currently, VIX is at 23.45 from 24.80. 3 month VIX Future is at 25.62 from 26.49.

Gold higher, silver lower and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is a $137.84 from $137.53 with the yield at 0.929% from 0.90%.

Positive Sectors On Wednesday: Energy, Consumer Defensive, Utilities and Industrials of note.

Negative Sectors On Wednesday:  Materials, Industrials, Energy and Financials of note. 

One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close:  DIS CSCO AMAT BIDU U FTCH AQN DLB GLOB AMWL of note.

Friday Before The Open: JD DKNG VIPS SPB MANU of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat:

PDD +1.36, TDG +0.94, BAM +0.18, INMD +0.15, TUFN +0.13, MTOR +0.12, GDRX +0.09, SSRM +0.08, SDGR +0.07, SBH +0.07, DAVA +0.04, EPC +0.03, NICE +0.02, SSYS +0.02, TGP +0.01, WIX +0.0of note.

Flat: HIMX +0.00

Missed:

ENR (0.22), TNK (0.10), SFL (0.05)  of note.

Still To Report:

Hourly Action: A struggle this week despite the “gappy action”.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/11 Close. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

FOSL +31%, PDD +19%, FPRX +14%, HIMX +12%, XPEV +10%, INBX +9%, GRWG +9%, NVEE +7%, IGT +6%, MFC +5%, HI +5%, MRNA +5%, SOL +5%, PDLI +4%

Gap Down:

VRM -10%, RVLV -9%, USCR -7%, SPTN -6%, GOCO -5%

Gapping down:

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks making the biggest moves – MRNA ENR BABA NKE. (CNBC)

Biggest analyst calls of the day – CRM NKE COST. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before Today’s Action. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: Texas tops 1 million cases, U.S. sets new record of average daily cases. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

President -Elect Biden’s top coronavirus advisor Dr. Michael Osterholm calls for a U.S. lockdown of 4 to 6 weeks. (CNBC)

President Trump trying to delay vote certification but his lawyers say will not work. (WSJ)

European Regulators are concerned about bad loans at banks. (WSJ)

Tropical Storm Eta makes landfall in Florida. (CNN)

Stock Index Trading & Key Moving Averages:

Current through 11/11 close. The NASDAQ 100 broke its 5 day moving average on Tuesday and it remains below.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/11 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

October CPI will be out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at 0.2%. Came in at 0%.

Weekly Jobless Claims will be out at 8:30 a.m. EDT  and expected to come in at 740,000. Came in at 709,00 which is a +.

Both Crude Oil and Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT and 11:00 a.m. EDT.

The October Treasury Budget is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT and September came in at $-134,5 billion.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump has no events on the calendar.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at 11:45 a.m. EDT to an ECB group.

 (Investor Meeting)

 (Analyst Meeting) (Research Call) Update)

Sellside Conferences: Credit Suisse Healthcare Conference (11/9-11/12) Baird Global Industrial Conference (11/10-11/12) Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference (11/10-11/12) Wolfe Research Industrials Conference (11/10-11/16) Morgan Stanley Life After Covid Thematic Conference (11/10-11/12) Roth Technology Conference (11/11-11/12) Stifel Midwest One on One Growth Conference (11/11-11/12)

Industry Conferences:

M&A:

Recommendations By Sellside Firms: Upgrades and Downgrades From Today

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