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11.27.2020 9 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (9)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 11/17/20: Stocks Weaker This Morning, Amazon Takes On Pharmacies"

posted by CAPIS on 11/17/2020 at 7:48 am

by CAPIS

11/17/2020 at 7:48 am

Breaking News: Retail Sales grew at 0.3% versus 0.5% estimate, weaker than expected.

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Expect volatility to continue post election until the President recognizes the President-Elect. Yesterday was limited replay of last Monday. Since then, my Recovery Index sees only 24 of 66 names in the index are above last Monday’s high. The conclusion: buy the rumor and sell the news.

Covid-19 Statistics:

Total Cases 11,047,064 from 10,897,771

Recovered THIS HAS STOPPED REPORTING (https://covidtracking.com/about-data/faq#why-have-you-stopped-reporting-national-recoveries)

Deaths 238,217 from 237,625

New Tests 1,479,298 from 1,475,115

New Cases 148,832 from 145,670 with positivity rate +10.0% (up 0.2%)

Daily Deaths 581

Current Hospitalizations 73,014 from 69,987

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: None of note.

Secondaries Priced: VRTV PLUG STAG TREE  of note.

Notes Priced of note: GH of note.

Common Stock filings:  KOD PLUG PLYA STAG ORA CAE VRTV BEKE PDD TREE  of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: BLI ORGS of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: ORA EMR PDD SQNS of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close on Yesterday:

Beat:

BIDU +7.27, IQ +1.00, YY +0.32, BEKE +0.28, SDC +0.03 of note.

Misses:

GDS (1.09), GAN (0.16), MSGE (0.02), API (0.02)  of note.

News After The Close:

Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) releases latest 13F buys BMY MRK ABBV PFE TMUS, sold COST.

Several other 13fs filed including Appaloosa, Corvex, Glenview.

Baidu (BIDU) buys JOYY’s (YY) live streaming business for $3.6 billion.

Costco (COST) declares a special $10 dividend.

Airbnb (ABNB) files IPO.

General Dynamics (GD) wins $9.5 billion Navy contract.

Tesla (TSLA) will join S&P 500 on 12/21.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -25  Dow Jones Industrial Average -280 NASDAQ +12.87  Russell 2000 -17 . Fair values are lower.  Asia higher ex Shanghai  and Europe lower.

Gold flat, silver lower and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.20 from $137.89  with the yield at 0.875% from  0.908% .

Positive Sectors On Monday: Energy, Industrials, Financials and Materials of note.

Negative Sectors On Monday:  Healthcare of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: NIO, LZB, VREX of note.

Tuesday Before The Open: LOW, TGT, TJX, KC, SR, AVYA, BV of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat:

KSS +0.45, HD +0.16, WMT +0.15, AQUA +0.04  of note.

Flat: 

Missed:

SE (0.14), ARMK (0.02) of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/16 Close. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

LXRX +57%, SQNS +16%, NEPT +14%, TSLA +12%, YY +9%, PGRE +9%, KRMD +6%, AXTI +5%

Gap Down:

MMT -15%, PLUG -10%, IQ -10%, GDRX -10%, WBA -9%, API -8%, TREE -7%, CVS -7%, ORA -6%, PDD -5%, SDC -5%, KOD -4%, PLYA -4%, VRTV -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves MRNA CSPR UBER. (CNBC)

Biggest Analyst Calls T CHWY CMG MCF. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

President Trump considered attacking Iran, main nuclear facility, last week but decided against. (NYT)

Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) head to the hill to testify over social media. (Bloomberg)

Pfizer (PFE) to start delivery of vaccine in four states. (Reuters)

Apple (AAPL) suppliers increasing output which means only one thing, the latest iPhone is selling well. (Digitimes)

Amazon (AMZN) goes online with two pharmacy offerings to help with prescriptions. (Bloomberg)

Stock Index Trading & Key Moving Averages:

Current through 11/16 close. Several more indexes broke their 5 day moving averages on Thursday.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/16 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump has no public events scheduled. 

Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) head to the hill to testify over social media. (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

TEAM CLXT ROK TRP EXLS SMMNY  (Investor Day) CUE (Update) LCTX (Peer Review) EQIX (Roundtable) FMC (Investor Event) AVRO (R&D Day)

Sellside Conferences: Wolfe Research Industrials Conference (11/10-11/16) Needham Networking, Communicaton and Security Conference (11/16-11/17) Citi FinTech Conference (11/16-11/19) Stephens Annual Investment Conference (11/16-11/20) Stifel Global Healthcare Conference (11/16-11/18) RBC Annual Global Mining & Materials Conference (11/16-11/17) Craig Hallum Alpha Select Conference (11/17) Raymond James Growth & Value Conference (11/17)

Industry Conferences: NAREIT Annual Investor Conference (1117-11/20)

M&A:

Rockwell (ROK) to buy privately held Fiix, to close by year end.

Recommendations By Sellside Firms: Upgrades and Downgrades From Today

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