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"CAPIS Morning Note – 11/20/20: Futures All Over The Place Since Last Night, Treasury Shuts Down The Federal Reserve Funding"

posted by CAPIS on 11/20/2020 at 7:44 am

by CAPIS

11/20/2020 at 7:44 am

Upcoming Interview of Note: Treasury Secretary to be on CNBC to discuss the decision to remove funding from the Federal Reserve.

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Expect volatility to continue post election until the President recognizes the President-Elect.

Covid-19 Statistics: Recovered stats no longer tracked as only 37 reporting this statistic.

Total Cases 11,556,142 from 11,373,310

Deaths 243,675 from 241,704

New Tests 1,817,267 from 1,541,478

New Cases 182,832 from 163,975 with positivity rate +10.0% (down 0.6%)

Daily Deaths 1,971

Current Hospitalizations 80,698 from 79,410

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: Sotera Health (SHC) priced at $23 a share at high end of range of $20 to $23.  Maravai Life Sciences (MRVI) priced at $27 with range of $24 to $27. Telos (TLS) priced at $17.00 a share.

Secondaries Priced: STOK AVRO NNDM of note.

Notes Priced of note: GRPO of note.

Common Stock filings: AVRO ADV  of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: ADV of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: VBTX of note.

Convertible Offering Files:  of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close on Yesterday:

Beats: WSM +1.05, INTU +0.51, BECN +0.50, CAL +0.44, ROST +0.40, BEST +0.38, WWD +0.22, WDAY +0.19, ESE +0.14

Flat: none

Misses: POST (0.19), HP (0.01)

News After The Close:

FireEye (FEYE) buys Respond Software for $186 million and announces $400 million investment by Blackstone (BX).

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin took back money from the Federal Reserve that they were using for emergency Covid-19 aid programs. (CNBC)

Federal Reserve fires back almost immediately that they would prefer to extend  the emergency facilities. (CNBC)

California Governor Newsom declares a stay at home order from 10:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m.

Stitch Fix (SFIX) COO and Interim CFO Mike Smith resigns to start a venture capital firm.

Vietnam threatens to shut down Facebook (FB) over censorship requests.

Facebook (FB) is getting closer to FTC and State Attorney Generals acting against the company.

Dr. Fauci was interviewed on CNN by Chris Cuomo and says vaccines have not been rushed.

Georgia Secretary of State reaffirmed presidential election results.

WHO recommended that Gilead Sciences (GILD) remdesivir not be used as a therapeutic for patients in the hospital.

Dividend Increase: BFA WDAY NGVC (special $2.00) KIM

Raises Guidance: INTU

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: 

Hourly Action:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -7  Dow Jones Industrial Average -93  NASDAQ -1  Russell 2000 -2. Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed with only Nikkei lower and Europe higher. VIX is at 24.40 from 23.7 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 22.83 from 22.71 and the three month futures at 25.80.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.44 from $138.31 with the yield at 0.834%  from 0.857%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday: Energy, Technology and Consumer Cyclical of note.

Negative Sectors On Thursday:  Utilities of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After The Close: None of note.

Monday Before The Open: BZUN, TWST of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: HIBB +1.00, FL +0.58, BKE +0.30

Flat:  none

Misses: GSX (1.58), HHR (0.94)

Still to Report: none

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/19 Close. Near term top?

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

Gap Down:

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – PFE FL HIBB WDAY . (CNBC)

Biggest Analyst Calls – DKNG NKLA OXY, PENN. (CNBC)

Coronavirus Update: Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) file for Emergency Authorization Use. (CNBC)

Covid-19 continue to see cases hit new high since July.

Immunity to Covid-19 could last years. (NY Times)

Oxford study says reinfection from Covid-19 unlikely for 6 months. (CNBC)

President Trump at 6:50 a.m. EDT participated in a virtual meeting of the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leader’s Meeting.

Chinese bond defaults are spooking investors. (CNBC)

Dr. Scott Gottlieb in CNBC interview says NYC has it wrong on schools and Remdesivir should be used on patients. (CNBC)

Several California counties (Orange and Sacramento) say will not enforce new curfew. (ABC News)

One of the Republican members of the Michigan state canvassing board may call for an audit of ballots. (The Washington Post)

President-Elect Joe Biden will meet with Speaker of the House Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Schumer. (Politico)

Trump Administration to release new rules on drug prices. (WSJ)

Stock Index Trading & Key Moving Averages:

Current through 11/19 close. Nirvana ended as quickly as it began.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/18 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg and eSignal. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

None of note.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump will meet with Michigan Republican Legislatures at The White House. He will also at 2:30 p.m. deliver remarks on delivering lower prescription drug prices for all Americans.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

Federal Reserve Richmond President Tom Barkin 9:00 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 9:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve Dallas President Robert Kaplan 9:30 a.m. EST

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

SSREY ADAP EPC QRTEA GLIBA LBRDA (Investor and/or Analyst Day) PROG ASND (R&D Day) HCKT (Webcast)

Sellside Conferences:  Stephens Annual Investment Conference (11/16-11/20) Deutsche Bank Gaming. Lodging. Leisure and Restaurant One on One Conference ( 11/19-11/20)

Industry Conferences: NAREIT Annual Investor Conference (11/17-11/20)

M&A:

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