09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

Morning Note


Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 11/24/20: Trump Blesses Transition With Biden, Futures Higher"

posted by CAPIS on 11/23/2020 at 11:12 pm


11/23/2020 at 11:12 pm

Lead Story: 

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. With yesterday’s concession by President Trump can we shake the volatility? Time will tell.

Covid-19 Statistics: Recovered stats no longer tracked as only 37 reporting this statistic.

Total Cases 12,230,472 from 12,077,354

Deaths 248,897 from 247,932

New Tests 1,757,307 from 1,726,449

New Cases 150,975 from 150,098 with positivity rate +8.5% (down 0.1%)

Daily Deaths 956

Current Hospitalizations 85,836 from 83,782

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced: None of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings: None of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: VER CBAT of note.

Convertible Offering Files: BILL of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beats: URBN +0.34, NTNX +0.13, CBT +0.11, A +0.04, AMBA +0.04

Flat: none

Misses: ENTA (0.49)

News After The Close:

Michigan certifies President -Elect Joe Biden.

Blackrock (BLK) to buy Aperio for $1.05 billion.

Huntington  Ingalls (HII) wins contract for construction of two Columbia Class submarine modules for $2.2 billion.

General Services Administration begins the transition process from President Trump to President-Elect Biden.

Dividend Increase:  EV (Special $4.25) HRL 

Raises Guidance: AMBA CBT MSP 

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: NVS

Hourly Action: Last only three hours were positive. Yesterday, four were positive a bit better. Close 11/23.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +31  Dow Jones Industrial Average +319  NASDAQ +55  Russell 2000 +26. Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed with only Shanghai lower and Europe higher. VIX is at 23.51 this morning in futures. VIX closed at from 22.83 and the three month futures at 25.43.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.25 from $138.33 with the yield at 0.855% from 0.834%.

Positive Sectors On Monday: Energy, Financials and Consumer Cyclicals of note.

Negative Sectors On Monday: Healthcare of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: VMW, ADSK, DELL, VEEV, HPQ, GPS, PSTG, JWN, AEO of note.

Wednesday Before the Open: DE, ATHM, WB, SINA, FRO, OGI of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: ANF +0.80, DKS +0.79, TIF +0.45, LX +0.36, BBY +0.34, J +0.31, DLTR +0.23, TITN +0.23, MDT +0.22, SJM +0.16, BURL +0.13, AMWD +0.12, ADI +0.11, PLAN +0.05, DY +0.01 EV +0.01

Flat:  none

Misses: CHS (0.33), HRL (0.02)

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/23 Close. Breakout ahead?

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

CANG +27%, NTNX +11%, AMBA +9%, MSP +5%, STIM +5%, LX +5%

Gap Down:

GSM -8%, BLDP -5%, ENTA -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – BBY HRL ANF. (CNBC)

Biggest Analyst Calls – GE MSFT ULTA WFC. (CNBC)

Coronavirus Update: U.S. deaths top 1500 BUT easing begins. (CNBC)

Markets like Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary. (CNBC)

Europe to ease lockdowns ahead of Christmas holiday. (WSJ)

U.K. may ban Huawei in 2021. (Bloomberg)

States to announce their own antitrust lawsuit on Google (GOOGL) in December. (Reuters)

Shell may shutdown Louisiana refinery, Convent, next week. (Reuters)

Citi weighs in on global herd immunity. (CNBC)

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 11/23 close. Nirvana has faded but overall confidence is at 87% (new addition).

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/23 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. Volatility cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting


S&P Case-Schiller Price Index for September is out at 9:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 5.5% from 5.2%.

November Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 96.5 from 100.90.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump and the First Lady at 2:00 p.m. EST present the National Thanksgiving Turkey for the traditional pardon.

7 Year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST with $57 billion in 5s and in 2s.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida speaks at 12:45 p.m. EDT.

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

RAIL  (Investor and/or Analyst Day) TU IDN (Webcast)  IKTSY (Conference call)

Sellside Conferences:  Credit Suisse Specialty Chemicals Conference (11/24) RBC Small Cap Conference (11/24)

Industry Conferences:


Blackrock (BLK) to buy Aperio for $1.05 billion.

McCormick (MKC) announces it is buying  Cholula Hot Sauce for $800 million.

Upgrades & Downgrades: We missed Monday’s notables. They are included today.



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