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"CAPIS Morning Note – 12/1/20: Welcome To December, Futures On Fire As S&P 500 Up 41"

posted by CAPIS on 12/01/2020 at 7:44 am

by CAPIS

12/01/2020 at 7:44 am

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Trend is higher however.

Covid-19 Statistics: 

Total Cases 13,337,969 from 13,188,777

Deaths 259,075 from 257,920

New Tests 1,596,757 from 1,277,179

New Cases 147,074 from 134,184 with positivity rate +9.2% (down 1.3)

Daily Deaths 1,136

Current Hospitalizations 96,039 from 93,219

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced: ELAN NOVA  of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings: COGT NOVA DADA ARRY of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: FOUR NOVA OSH XP OM of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  CIXX of note.

Convertible Offering Files: FOUR NEP of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beats: ZM +0.23

Flat:  none

Misses: none

News After The Close:

Exxon (XOM) announces plan to prioritize capital investments on high value assets.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) amends credit agreement.

Raytheon (RTX) wins $640 million Navy contract.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) wins $1.4 billion Air Force contract.

L3Harris (LHX) wins $670 million Air Force contract.

Oshkosh (OSK) wins $890 million Army contract.

K12 (LRN) victim of a cyberattack on its systems and network.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell calls next few months “challenging” per his testimony on Tuesday.

FDA schedules Moderna (MRNA) EUA review for 12/17.

Wisconsin certifies President-Elect Biden as the winner.

Tesla (TSLA) will go into the S&P 500 on 12/21.

Dividend Increase: 

Raises Guidance:  ZM 

Lowers Guidance: MOMO

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: NOAH KNX 

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 +41    Dow Jones Industrial Average +332    NASDAQ +112   Russell 2000 +25. Fair values are lower.  Asia and Europe higher. VIX is at 22.09 from 20.57  this morning in futures. VIX closed at 20.57 from 20.84 and the three month futures at 24.33 from 24.43.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.09 from $138.08 with the yield at 0.88% from 0.855%.

Positive Sectors On Monday: Healthcare and Technology of note.

Negative Sectors On Monday: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Utilities and Financials of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: CRM, VEEV, TCOM, HPE, NTAP, BOX, HOME of note.

Wednesday Before the Open: RY, PDCO of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: MOMO +0.51, BMO 0.50, BNS +0.17,

Flat: none

Misses: none

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 11/30 Close. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

HEXO +20%, CFII +18%, MRNA +10%, NCNA +9%, XPEV +7%, SOL +6%, TSLA +5%

Gap Down:

COGT -13%, ZM -7%, ARRY -6%, FOUR -5%, DADA -4%, NOVA -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – ZM TSLA XOM . (CNBC)

5 things to know before the market opens. (CNBC)

Coronavirus Update: CDC to vote who gets vaccine first, Starbucks offers free coffee to front line workers. (CNBC)

Vice President Pence notes that vaccine distribution to begin mid December. (Bloomberg)

OECD lifts global economic forecast as vaccine approaches and China rebound. (CNBC)

California  Governor Newsom considering harsher stay at home orders as Covid-19 surges in his state. (Politico)

Leaked documents show how China mishandled the virus. (CNN)

GAO says that that weekly jobless claims are “flawed” in that errors on over and under estimates as well as paying minimum amounts over what was available. (WSJ)

Bank of America (BAC) will not provide loans for oil and gas exploration in Artic. (Bloomberg)

White House Chief of Staff Meadows calls for a meeting with FDA Commissioner Hahn on why moving slowly on Pfizer (PFE) vaccine approval. (Axios)

Amazon (AMZN) reports that independent businesses grew sales at 60%  for the year.

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 11/30 close. Overall confidence fell below 100% to 83%.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/30 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. Volatility cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting

Economic:

November ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 58% from 59.3%.

October Construction Spending is due out also at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.7% from 0.3%.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump will have lunch with the Vice President at 12:00 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will begin their first day of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

 PTAC  NSTG PBR UNH ENIC   (Investor Day)  HON (Update) CAAP KALU (Conference Call)

Sellside Conferences: Goldman Sachs Industrial Conference (11/30-12/2) Bank of America Virtual Leveraged Finance Conference (11/30 -12/2) Credit Suisse Technology Conference (11/30-12/3) Citi Basic Materials Conference (11/30-12/2)

Industry Conferences: Greater New York Dental Meeting (11/27-12/2)

M&A:

AdaptHealth (AHCO) to buy AeroCare Holdings for $2 billion.

Upgrades & Downgrades:  Another busy day for both upgrades and downgrades.

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