09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

Morning Note


Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 12/4/20: Jobs Growth Plummets to 245,000 From Expected 460,000 But Stocks Still Higher"

posted by CAPIS on 12/04/2020 at 7:52 am


12/04/2020 at 7:52 am

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Trend is higher however. Too many strategists are calling for a pullback so we will go higher for now.

Covid-19 Statistics: 

Total Cases 13,921,312 from 13,711,151

Deaths 267,228 from 264,522

New Tests 1,807,951 from 1,444,783

New Cases 210,161 from 195,695 with positivity rate of 11.6% (down 1.9)

Daily Deaths 2,706

Current Hospitalizations 100,667 from 100,226

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: Sigilon Therapeutics (SGTX) priced at $18 in the range of $17 to $19. Silverback Therapeutics (SBTX) priced at $21 with range of $17 to $19.

Secondaries Priced: NOVA CMBM LI BNR  of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings: None of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beats: ZUMZ +0.40, SWBI +0.30, ULTA +0.15, DOCU +0.12, SAIC +0.09, OLLI +0.07, CLDR +0.06, YEXT +0.06, COO +0.05, ZUO +0.04, DOMO +0.04, MDLA +0.02, PD +0.01

Flat:  MRVL +0.00

Misses: none

News After The Close:

J.M. Smucker (SJM) to sell Natural balance pet food business for $50 million.

Semiconductor Industry Association out with October sales which were up 6% y/y to $39 billion.

Major credit agency notes that Covid-19 will drive more downgrades in 2021.

President-Elect Joe Biden will ask Americans to wear a mask for the first 100 days of his term. (CNN)

Dividend Increase: AXS CGNX (special $2) ECL EMN EPRT NUE OC THG

Raises Guidance:  DOCU MDLA CLDR

Lowers Guidance: YEXT COO

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: ACA OC RJF

Hourly Action: 12/3 Close Updated. Earlier is stronger this week.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500  +10   Dow Jones Industrial Average +102    NASDAQ +14    Russell 2000 +9.7 . Fair values are mixed to lower. Asia and Europe mixed. VIX is at from 22.88 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 21.28 from 20.77  and the three month futures at 24.56 from 24.49.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $137.64 from $137.55 with the yield at 0.92%from 0.943%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday: Energy, Real Estate and Consumer Cyclical of note.

Negative Sectors On Thursday: Utilities, Communication Services and Financials of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: none of note.

Monday Before the Open: none of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: GCO +0.99, BIG +0.10

Flat: none

Misses: none

Still to Report: HDS

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 12/3 Close. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

STRO +18%, DOMO +18%, PD +16%, BCRX +16%, CLDR +15%, DTIL +7%, DOCU +5%, ZUO +5%, GOL +4%

Gap Down:

OLLI -12%, YEXT -7%, MDLA -6%, MRVL -5%, ULTA -4%, LI -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – OLLI ULTA MRVL. (CNBC)

5 things to know before the market opens. (CNBC)

Biggest analyst calls of the day. (CNBC Pro)

Coronavirus Update:  U.S. continues to set records on cases, hospitalizations and deths. (CNBC)

Stimulus talks continue but there are two plans – Bipartisan and McConnell plan. (WSJ)

Senator Mitt Romney (R – UT) says we will get a stimulus deal. (CNN)

U.S. working towards resolution of charges against Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou. (WSJ)

Activision (ATVI) Call of Duty series sets new records with over $3 billion in bookings. (Business Wire)

Francesca’s Holdings (FRAN) files Chapter 11. (MarketWatch)

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 12/2 close. Overall confidence rose from 93% to 100%.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 12/3 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. Volatility cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting


November Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 650,000 from 638,000. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 6.9%. Came in at 245,00 and was revised down to 460,000 during the week. The Unemployment Rate is down to 6.7% from 6.9%.

October Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.8 % from1.1%.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump has no events planned today. Can anyone say “Fore”?

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman to speak at 10:00 a.m. EST.

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

EQ (Investor Day)  SRE (Conference Call)  

Sellside Conferences:  Credit Suisse Industrial Conference (12/2-12/4) Goldman Sachs Annual Automotive Conference (12/3-12/4)

Industry Conferences: NASDAQ Investor Conference (12/1-12/4)


Upgrades & Downgrades:  Another busy day for both upgrades and downgrades.  Tier Four firm Wolfe Research who does have a following downgrades airlines across the board.

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