09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

Morning Note


Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 12/8/20: Futures Lower For Second Day, England Begins Vaccinations"

posted by CAPIS on 12/08/2020 at 7:39 am


12/08/2020 at 7:39 am

Breaking News: Pfizer (PFE) releases briefing documents related to vaccine ahead of Thursday FDA meeting.

Market Tone:  Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Since 11/4 close, the S&P has not rallied for more than two days before some selling and the longest losing streak is two days, yet the S&P 500 has gained almost 200 points since then.

Covid-19 Statistics: 

Total Cases 14,717,065 from 14,534,035

Deaths 274,745 from 273,374

New Tests 1,835,388 from 1,634,532

New Cases 180,193 from 176,771 with positivity rate of 9.8% (down 1.0)

Daily Deaths 1,347

Current Hospitalizations 102,148 from 101,487

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced: 

Secondaries Priced: ARCT of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.


Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: KURA GRWG ARCT  of note.

Convertible Offering Files: SIG of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beats: CASY +0.18, COUP +0.15, HQY +0.05, SMAR +0.09, SFIX +0.26, SUMO +0.30, TOL +0.32

Flat:  none

Misses: none

News After The Close:

Stitch Fix (SFIX) names Dan Jedda as CFO , came from Amazon.

Amazon (AMZN) to open second AWS infrastructure region in Australia in second half of 2022.

Dividend Increase: MC (special $2) BKE (special $2)  NYMT AES CASY ENB

Raises Guidance:  COUP SMAR 

Lowers Guidance: 

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: RTX 

Hourly Action: 12/3 Close Updated. Earlier was stronger last week.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500  -15   Dow Jones Industrial Average -74    NASDAQ -32    Russell 2000 -7 . Fair values are mixed to lower. Asia and Europe lower. VIX is at 22.61 from 22.88 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 21.22 from 21.28 and the three month futures at 24.52 from 24.56.

Gold slightly higher with silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $137.77 from $137.55 with the yield at 0.916% from 0.92%.

Positive Sectors On Monday: Technology, Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical of note.

Negative Sectors On Monday: Energy, Real Estate and Financials of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: CHWY, MDB, GWRE, AVAV, PHR, GME of note.

Wednesday Before the Open: CPB, UNFI, PLAB, DBI, LOVE, VRA of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: CONN +0.02, CMD +0.55, GIII +0.53, THO +0.48, AZO +3.77

Flat: none

Misses: BF.B (0.01)

Still to Report: HRB, JW.A

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 12/7 Close. 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

SFIX +33%, HOLI +18%, TEDU +18%, SMAR +16%, QURE +7%, GOGO +6%, MC +5%, NYMT +5%, ON +4%, COUP +4, THO +4%

Gap Down:

IBIO -9%, MRNS -8%, TRIL -6%, GLYC -5%, GRWG -5%, ARCT -5%, MSTR -5%, IGMS -5%, AGIO -4%, STRO -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – IAC F EK. (CNBC)

5 things to know before the market opens. (CNBC)

Biggest analyst calls of the day. (CNBC Pro)

Coronavirus Update:  UK to start vaccinations, U.S. cases continue to rise. (CNBC)

No stimulus deal as division between McConnell and Democrats. Not sure why I even bother reporting on this. (The Hill)

House and Senate have enough votes to override a presidential veto from Trump on the Defense Authorization Bill. (Politico)

In late summer, Pfizer (PFE) offered additional vaccine and Trump declined and now may not be able to provide more vaccine until June 2021. (NYT) (JD) Hong Kong Shares up 50% in first day of trading.

Sirius XM (SIRI) locks in Howard Stern for another five years.

Several banks including C and DB to stand trial in Australia for collusion. (Reuters)

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 12/7 close. Overall confidence remains at 100%.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 12/3 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. Volatility cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting


November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is due out at 6:00 a.m. EST and came out at 104 last month.

The Treasury holds a $56 billion auction for the 3 Year at 1:00 p.m.

Weekly Petroleum API Data is due out at 4:30 p.m. EST.

Geopolitical & Related:

President Trump will deliver remarks at an Operation Warp Speed Vaccine Summit at 2pm EST South Court Auditorium.

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

CRM RHHBY HRB SCWX SYNH FISV ENB AGIO (Investor Day)  X KPTI   (Conference Call)  HARP NEM (Update) VBIV BLNK HCKT(webcast)

Sellside Conferences:  Raymond James Technology Conference (12/7-12/9) UBS Global Media Telecoms/Communication and Technology Conference (12/7-12/9) Capital One Securities Annual Energy Conference (12/7 to 12/9) Goldman Sachs Financials Conference (12/8-12/9) Citi Global Consumer Conference ( 12/8-12/10) Morgan Stanley Business Services Conference (12/8) Truist Industrial Services Conferences (12/8)  Wells Fargo Midstream and Utility Symposium (12/8-12/9)

Industry Conferences: American Society of Hematology Annual meeting (12/5-12/8) Benzinga Small Cap Conference (12/8-12/9)


Upgrades & Downgrades:  Light morning of recommendations.

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