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03.03.2021 12 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and General (2)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 2/17/21: Interest Rates Continue To Rise, Stocks Lower"

posted by CAPIS on 02/17/2021 at 8:08 am

by CAPIS

02/17/2021 at 8:08 am

Interesting Fact: The VIX broke 20 on Friday for the first time since February 24th of 2020. It did not last long as the VIX closed back above 20 at 21.46.

Covid-19 Statistics: 

Total Cases 27,540,885 from 27,484,573

Deaths 478,259 from 476,906

New Tests 1,060,442 from 1,135,232

New Cases 56,312 from 55,077 with positivity rate of 5.3% (up 0.4)

Daily Deaths 1,353

Current Hospitalizations 64,533 from 65,455

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced or News: None of note.

Secondaries Priced: AGFY  HQY AEZS SHIP CTXR   of note.

Notes Priced of note: EXPE of note.

Common Stock filings: EPIX YMAB HQY SITM CHGG   of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: GIX  of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: MVIS SITM SNDL WRE  of note.

Convertible Offering Files:  of note.

Summary From The Trade Exchange bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box.

Earnings Out After The Close Of Note:

Beats: MCY +0.84, IOSP +0.50, WIRE +0.48, CSOD +0.37, CAR +0.32, TNET +0.18, A +0.16, SEDG +0.10, NMIH +0.08, VNO +0.08, GNW +0.07, QTS +0.06, KRNT +0.06, BYD +0.05, DIOD +0.04, LZB +0.04, ACCO +0.04, ES +0.02, LSCC +0.02, RNG +0.02, AIG +0.01

Flat:   INVH +0.00

Misses: EXAS (2.53), QS (2.35), CMP (0.72), KAR (0.29), CRSP (0.22), CLR (0.15), MERC (0.12), DVN (0.03), DENN (0.01)

News After The Close:

Exact Sciences (EXAS) to buy Ashion Analytics, no terms.

Berkshire Hathaway takes new positions in VZ CVX MMC and exits GOLD PFE PNC JPM.

Boeing (BA) backs fuel efficiency for new airplanes. (Reuters)

Dividend Increases: GPI 

Split Announcement:

Raises Guidance: LSCC RNG CSOD DIOD

Lowers Guidance: 

Stock Buyback New Or Increase:

Insider Buys: (source The Trade Exchange)

Erlanger Valuelines: Volatility is on the rise as noted by the blue highlighting. Updated 2/16 Close

Hourly Action – Updated 2/16 close. Trading remains mixed.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. Quick comment -Futures are mixed this morning but nothing substantial. The low overnight on the S&P 500 was at 2:30 a.m. EST down 10 points from current levels.

S&P 500 -10   Dow Jones Industrial Average -41   NASDAQ -*79   Russell 2000 -8 . Fair values are higher ex the Russell. Asia higher ex Japan and Europe lower. VIX is at 26.15 from 25.84 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 21.46 from 19.97 and the three month futures at 27.55 from  26.50.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil higher and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $135.61 from $136.14 with the yield at 1.33% from 1.253%.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Energy, Materials and Financials of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Healthcare, Utilities and Real Estate of note.

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Energy, Materials, Healthcare and Financials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: MELI, BIDU, TWLO, SNPS, NTR, PXD, WCN, TXG, ET, IQ, ALB, SUI, SAM of note.

Thursday Before the Open: WMT, SO, WM, NEM, MAR, TRP, GOLD, HRL, CCL, WST, PPL, EPAM, VTR, FE, NICE of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: ATH +0.60, GRMN +0.59, OC +0.53, SHOP +0.37, CRL +0.33, EQT +0.25, ALE +0.16, COMM +0.15, HEES +0.13, BCOR +0.11, SAH +0.10, FUN +0.09, WIX +0.08, IRWD +0.07, BPMC +0.06, DAVA +0.03, NI +0.01, HSIC +0.01

Flat: none

Misses: SFL (1.63), HLT (0.13), DNOW (0.05)

Still to Report: ADI, CHH, GPC, RPRX, WING

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart/Table – This morning we show our performance on our Advance/Decline Model that has been invested since 11/10 one of our longest streaks being invested, 94 days, since we began production in March of 2009.

  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap up:

CSOD +17%, MESO +14%, KRNT +10%, QS +9%, TPCO +8%, WIX +7%, ANDE +6%, SEDG +4%

Gap down:

KAR -19%, SHIP -17%, AEZS -12%, CTXR -11%, SNDL -10%, AGFY -9%, MERC -8%, MVIS -6%, HQY -6%, LZB -5%, BTI -5%, CRSP -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – CVX VZ (CNBC)

Analyst Picks From CNBC – (CNBC)

Retail spending rises in January. (CNBC)

Millions still without power  after winter storm in the Southwest. (WSJ)

Epic Games files antitrust suit against Apple (AAPL). (FT)

Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) to provide 200 million more doses to the EU.

Nestle (NSRGY) to divest North American water brands for $4.3 billion.

Ford (F) to be zero emissions capable by mid 2026 and completely by 2030.

Morningstar (MORN) announced that SEC files civil action against the company over internal control issues.

Taiwan Semi (TSM) to add 1,000 jobs. (Taiwan News)

NY State Attorney General Letitia James files lawsuit against Amazon (AMZN) for not protecting workers.

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 2/16 close. Overall confidence moves from 100% to 97%.

Bold means a change from prior day.

Geopolitical:

Press Briefing by White House COVID-19 Response Team and public health officials, The White House, 11:00 a.m. EST

The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, Oval Office, 11:30 a.m. EST

The President has lunch with The Vice President, Private Dining Room, 12:30 p.m. EST

Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki and Deputy National Security Advisor for Cyber and Emerging Technology Anne Neuberger, James S. Brady Press Briefing Room, 12:30 p.m. EST

The President and The Vice President meet with labor leaders to discuss the American Rescue Plan and to get input on the President’s infrastructure plan, Oval Office, 3:30 p.m. EST

Economic:

MBA Mortgage Applications fell -5.1% from -4.1% a week ago.

January Retail Sales is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to improve to 0.7% from -1.4%. Came in at 5.3%.

January PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.5% from 0.3%. Came in at 1.3%.

January Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST an d is expected to fall to 0.6% from 1.6%.

February NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 86 from 83.

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the last meeting are due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.

$27 billion of 20 Years auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Investor, Sellside and Industry Meetings

NOK (Investor Day)

Sellside Confrerences: BTIG Med Tech Conference (2/17-19) Citi Global Industrials Conference (2/16-18) Barclays Select Industrials Conference ( 2/16-17)

Industry Conferences: 

M&A Activity:

Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) to buy Aris Mortgage Holding Company for $1 billion in cash.

Alden Capital to buy Tribune Publishing (TPCO) for $17.25 a share.

Upgrades & Downgrades of Note This Morning: Note that downgrades remain prevalent in February. Today’s Sellside Recommendations below.

Tuesday Sellside Recommendations

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