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"CAPIS Morning Note – 2/25/21: The Word of The Day: Volatility, Futures Lower"

posted by CAPIS on 02/25/2021 at 7:44 am

by CAPIS

02/25/2021 at 7:44 am

Covid-19 Statistics: 

Total Cases 28,075,173 from 28,000,689

Deaths 495,070 from 492,578

New Tests 1,464,714 from 1,188,609

New Cases 73,258 from 67,879 with positivity rate of 5.0% (down 0.7)

Daily Deaths 2,447

Current Hospitalizations 54,118 from 55,058

Earnings Out After The Close Of Note:

Beats: BKNG +3.65, NVDA +1.12, LB +0.92, KW +0.83, FNF +0.69, ANSS +0.41, UFPI +0.29, PDCE +0.22, OII +0.22, DRH +0.17, OR +0.16, UPLD +0.16, RVLV +0.15, NVRO +0.14, SRI +0.12, MMSI +0.11, ESTC +0.11, CCRN +0.10, TNDM +0.10, NTNX +0.10, DOOR +0.09, NTAP +0.09, APA +0.09, PSA +0.08, GEF +0.08, SJI +0.08, RDFN +0.07, SPTN +0.07, KALU +0.07, CDNA +0.06, RDN +0.06, CW +0.05, ACAD +0.05, PRDO +0.05, ORA +0.04, PSTG +0.04, STAA +0.04, UNVR +0.03, VIAC +0.03, INGN +0.03, MGNI +0.03, TRUE +0.03, ESI +0.03, AMED +0.02, AGI +0.02, AWK +0.01, WHD +0.01, WTRG +0.01, RCII +0.01, TWNK +0.01

Flat:   CNXN +0.00, PING +0.00, PGNY +0.00

Misses: TDOC (2.80), ECPG (0.83), GH (0.47), FATE (0.23), HCC (0.22), FTI (0.16), BILI (0.16), VAPO (0.15), IIPR (0.14), ACA (0.09), CHDN (0.08), SGMO (0.07), PLMR (0.06), ADPT (0.04), EPR (0.04), GBT (0.03), VAC (0.03)

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced or News: 

New SPACs launched:

Secondaries Priced:  TROX ADMS RCEL GPRE of note.

Notes Priced of note:  SPOT CHEF HALO GPRE of note.

Common Stock filings: IFRX RCEL ADMS  of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: ANSS of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: WMB BCOV   of note.

Convertible Offering Files: GPRE CHEF LMPX  of note.

Summary From The Trade Exchange bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box.

News After The Close:

Airline CEOS to meet President Biden to discuss  emission reduction.

In after hours, GameStop (GME) traded up to $147. Other Reddit/Robinhood/Speculative Names rose as well AMC KOSS as examples.

Dividend Increases: AMH CLNC SWX EBSB AGI KDP

Split Announcement:

Raises Guidance: RCII CR 

Lowers Guidance: CW

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: NBHC

Insider Buys: INCY  (source The Trade Exchange)

Erlanger Valuelines: Volatility is on the rise as noted by the blue highlighting on the EVL Range rising. Updated 2/24

Hourly Action – Updated 2/23 close. Trading remains mixed with 4 hours up and 3 down.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. Quick comment -Futures are lower this morning. The low overnight on the S&P 500 was at 6:00 a.m. EST.

S&P 500 –   Dow Jones Industrial Average –   NASDAQ –   Russell 2000 . Fair values are higher ex the Russell. Asia higher  and Europe mixed. VIX is at 24.35 from 25.75 this morning in futures. VIX closed at from 23.11 and the three month futures at from 27.12

Gold lower with silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $134.56 from $135.38 with the yield at 1.454% from 1.36%.

Positive Sectors On Wednesday:  Energy, Financials and Industrials of note.

Negative Sectors On Wednesday: Utilities and Consumer Defensive.

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Energy, Materials, Healthcare and Financials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: CRM, ABNB, DASH, WDAY, ADSK, VMW, DELL, CVNA, MNST, RKT, HPQ, EOG, ZS, ETSY, FTCH, EIX, PAGS, LYV, CZR of note.

Friday Before the Open: PEG, DKNG, EVRG, BLDR, LAMR, QRTEA, FL, CRON, PNM, RHP, MODV, FLR of note.

 Earnings This Morning Of Note:

 Beats: LAUR +1.37, SAFM +0.91, GTN +0.89, CM +0.78, BBY +0.54, FCN +0.44, TREE +0.39, VIPS +0.39, TD +0.36, W +0.33, SRE +0.33, SJM +0.24, GIL +0.23, PWR +0.23, TFX +0.20, SEAS +0.16, FLIR +0.16, CSTM +0.16, SWTX +0.16, MGPI +0.13, GOLF +0.13, DEN +0.13, WBT +0.12, TMX +0.11, CNP +0.08, AEP +0.08, EXLS +0.08, LI +0.07, AMRN +0.07, NLSN +0.07, SHOO +0.06, AAON +0.06, CLVT +0.05, WWW +0.04, AES +0.04, ACIW +0.04, PRG +0.04, PLAN +0.03, HSC +0.03, EVOP +0.02, SPNS +0.02, TGP +0.02, EME +0.02, VGR +0.02, ICPT +0.01, STWD +0.01, DCI +0.01

Flat: CGEN +0.00, NOMD +0.00

Misses: PLUG (1.00), PLTK (0.94), RCKT (0.58), NTES (0.57), REZI (0.51), CARS (0.38), CCOI (0.37), MRNA (0.33), BUD (0.33), INSM (0.32), TNK (0.26), NCLH (0.17), EDIT (0.14), AMWD (0.13), DPZ (0.13), AGIO (0.10), NVCR (0.08), NTLA (0.08), PZZA (0.08), AMT (0.06), SRCL (0.05), CLF (0.04), ROCK (0.04), KL (0.02), OGE (0.02), KDP (0.01)

Still to Report: CWT, CWH, FSS, MLCO, PCRX, PRFT, DOC, PRMW, SWI, TNC, TRS, USPH

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart/Table –Updated through 2/24. Breadth continues to deteriorate. A precursor or noise?

  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap up:

KOSS +59%, GME +55%, CCRN +26%, AMC +17%, EXPR +17%, TS +15%, TNDM +14%, JOE +12%, SELB +11%, BILI +11%, RCII +8%, ANGI +8%, MAXR +7%, RVLV +7%, OII +6%, MRNA +6%, VIPS +6%, AES +5%, RFL +5%, GTHX +5%, BB +5%, KDP +5%, CERS +4%, LI +4%, UFPI +4%, PSTG +4%, CLNC +4%, FNF +4%, DRH +4%, OGE +4%, NTNX +4%.

Gap down:

PING -14%, WHD -11.2%, PGNY -8.7%, RCEL -8.4%, ORA -7.5%, ECPG -6.8%, TDOC -6.5%, NTAP -6.4%, GPRE -5.9%, ADMS -5.9%, GBT -5.5%, BUD -5.3%, AMED -4.8%, ACA -4.7%, LMPX -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – GME KOSS W  (CNBC)

Biggest Analyst Calls – NKE DIS T SQ NVDA  (CNBC)

Covid Update: Vaccine passports being considered. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens (CNBC)

10 Year Yield moves to 1.45% the highest level in a year. (CNBC)

Reddit/Robinhood stocks are going crazy. (CNBC)

Federal Reserve systems were back up after a four hour outage. (Bloomberg)

Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) Vice Chairman Charlie Munger says investors are being pulled into a stock bubble by Robinhood. (CNBC)

Foxconn (FXCNY) will make electric cars with Fisker (FSR). (WSJ)

India puts new rules on social media. (Bloomberg)

Current through 2/24 close. Overall confidence moves from 54% to 87%.

Bold means a change from prior day.

2/24 results.

Geopolitical:

The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, White House Situation Room, 9:50 a.m. EST

Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, James S. Brady Press Briefing Room, 12:00 p.m. EST

The President has lunch with The Vice President, Private Dining Room, 12:30 p.m. EST

The President and The Vice President receive a COVID-19 briefing, Oval Office, 1:45 p.m. EST

The President participates in an event commemorating the 50 millionth COVID-19 vaccine shot; The Vice President also attends, South Court Auditorium, 2:30 p.m. EST

The President participates in the National Governors Association’s Winter Meeting, South Court Auditorium, 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve Governor Quarles speaks at 11:00 a.m. EST.

Economic:

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for the period ended on settlement date of 2/12. During this period from 1/27/21 through 2/10 on a trade date basis the S&P 500 rose 4.24%, so expect more short covering.

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

$62 billion of 7 Years to be auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Investor, Sellside and Industry Meetings

 MLM HAS AWR AWK CR AKAM EDPFY  (Investor Day) TWTR (Analyst Day)  TGEN (Event) EXPO (Webinar)

Sellside Confrerences: SVB Leerink 10th Annual Global Healthcare Conference (2/22-2/26) KBW Fintech Conference (2/23-2/25) Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum (2/24-2/26)  Wells Fargo Real Estate Conference (2/24-2/25) Citi Healthcare Services. Medtech, Tools & HCIT Conference (2/24-2/25)

Industry Conferences:

M&A Activity:

NuVasive (NUVA) to buy Simplify Medical (NUVA) for $150 million in cash.

Upgrades & Downgrades of Note This Morning: Note that downgrades remain prevalent in February. We will update today’s recs tomorrow as out of time.

Wednesday’s Sellside Recommendations below.

DISCLAIMER

This communication is for informational purposes only and is solely intended for use by institutional investors. Use of this communication by others, including retail investors, is prohibited. No statement herein is to be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, or to provide investment advice. Certain products, including options and futures, may involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The information on this webpage is provided by an independent third party. While the information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Capital Institutional Services, Inc. (CAPIS) to be reliable, CAPIS makes no representations concerning its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of this material.