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"CAPIS Morning Note -3/18/21: Futures Lower, Yields Spike"

posted by CAPIS on 03/18/2021 at 6:17 am

by CAPIS

03/18/2021 at 6:17 am

New Feature: We are now overlaying Insider Buys with Short Seller Batting Averages. Idea is simple – Insider Buying mixed with a bad short seller equals higher stock price down the road as short covers.

Earnings Out After The Close Of Note:

Beats:  WSM +0.65, AOUT +0.46, FIVE +0.09, MLHR +0.07, UPST +0.05, PD +0.04, ONTF +0.04, SMTC +0.03

Flat: none

Misses: ZTO (0.22)

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced or News: Vine Energy (VEI) priced at $14 a share below range of $16 to 19. The Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA) priced at $15 a share, mid range. 

New SPACs launched: 

Secondaries Priced: CFRX MAXR PHAS  SHC  of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings:  BBI CFRX DESO FAMI SLDB 0f note.

Selling Shareholders of note:  AHT of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: ONEM of note.

Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: of note.

Note Offerings Filed:  None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The Trade Exchange ,bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

Lordstown Motors (RIDE) still on track to begin production in September, noted on earnings call.

Penn Natl Gaming (PENN) to launch Barstool Sportbook in Virginia in a few months.

AMC Entertainment (AMC) sees 98% of locations open by Friday.

Index Change: VCEL to join S&P 600 on 3/22.

Abbott (ABT) wins $260 million Defense Logistics Agency contract.

IRS extends Tax Deadline by a month to May 17th.

Dividend Raises: CUZ HBNC 

Split Announcement: 

Raises Guidance: SMTC

Lowers Guidance: PD

Buyback Announcements:  ISTR

Insider Purchases: Below is the list of insider buys from yesterday. We note several names have moderate short selling. Two see smart short sellers so we discount the insider buying (AMR BBI). Two see the short typically losing (ORCL MYE). Upside for these are 26% ORCL and 31% MYE. Insider Action From The Trade Exchange and Short Date From Erlanger Research.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -25 Dow Jones Industrial Average -2 NASDAQ  -211 Russell 2000 -11.69. Fair values are mixed. Asia higher and Europe mixed. VIX is at 23.45 from 24.30 this morning in futures. VIX closed at19.23 from 19.47  and the three month futures at 23.88 from 24.71.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $131.31 from $131.61 with the yield at 1.74% from 1.67%.  Bitcoin $58,005.40 @ $198.10 0.34%

Positive Sectors On Wednesday: Consumer Cyclical, Energy and Industrials.

Negative Sectors On Wednesday: Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Defensive of note.

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials and Communication Services of note.

Three Month Winners: Materials, Industrials and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Energy, Financials and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners:  Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Materials of note.

Year to Date: Energy, Communication Services, Financials and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: NKE, FDX, OLLI, SCHL of note.

Friday Before the Open: ERJ of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats:  CSIQ +0.69, SIG +0.61, ACN +0.33, WB +0.12, TITN +0.10, GIII +0.08, WOOF +0.06, CMC +0.05

Flat: none

Misses: HHR (1.48), DG (0.10)

Still to Report: none

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart/Table –Updated through 3/17. Yesterday saw improvement.

 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap up:

UPST +44%, WSM +13%, VCEL +11%, AOUT +9%, ONTF +6%, WPRT +6%, FIVE +6%, COHR +5%, SGMO +4%, AMC +4%, WB +4%

Gap down:

TBIO -25%, CFRX -14%, PHAS -14%, ZTO -7%, LITE -6%, SLDB -6%, GEVO -6%, PD -4%, RIDE -4%, AHT -4%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – SIG DG    (CNBC)

Biggest Analyst Calls CNBC PRO: FIVE BAC CCL. (CNBC)

5 Things to know before the market opens. (CNBC)

10 Year hits 1.74% and 30 Year over 2.50%. (CNBC)

President Biden to hit his goal of 100 million vaccines today six weeks into his Administration. (Bloomberg)

Talks begin in Alaska today between U.S. and China and they will ask U.S. to roll back Trump policies. (WSJ)

If these talks go well, China wants President Biden and President Xi to meet on Earth Day.

Apple (AAPL) to roll out new iPads with better chips and cameras. (Bloomberg)

Google (GOOGL) to spend $7 billion on data centers. (CNBC)

FAA wants Boeing (BA) to inspect Dreamliner 787 Jets. (WSJ)

Several states use Biden Administration over Keystone Pipeline permit which could help TransCanada (TRP). (Reuters)

Index Results

Current through 3/17 close. Overall confidence remains at 97%.

Bold means a change from prior day.

3/16 results.

Geopolitical:

The Bank of England (BOE)  is out with its latest comments.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 11:55 a.m. EDT.

The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, Oval Office, 9:30 a.m. EST

Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki and Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Marcia L. Fudge, James S. Brady Press , 12:30 p.m. EST

The President and The Vice President receive a COVID-19 briefing, Oval Office, 1:15 p.m. EST

The President and The Vice President receive the Weekly Economic Briefing, Oval Office, 2:15 p.m. EST

The President delivers remarks on the state of vaccinations, East Room, 3:15 p.m. EST

Economic:

March Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 23.5 from 23.1.

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

February Leading Indicators is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.5%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Meetings, Sellside Conferences and Industry Conferences

WDC ADIL NLS GATO SLF NOK VOD  (Investor Meetings)  DRNA (Webcast) GEVO LIVX  (Fireside Chat) SEOVF (Conference Call) BMTM (Roadshow Webinar)

Sellside Conferences: Oppenheimer Healthcare Conference (3/16-18) Bank of America Global Industrials (3/16-18) UBS Energy Conference (3/16-18)  Maxim Emerging Growth Conference (3/17-19) Citi Retail Madness Conference (3/18-19) Bank of America Spring Energy Summit (3/18) JP Morgan Auto Conference (3/18-19) Bank of America Information Services Conference (3/18) Gabelli & Co Waste Services Conference (3/18)

Industry Conferences: SEMICON China (3/17-19) Anxiety and Depression Association of America Conference (3/18-19).

M&A Activity

Upgrades & Downgrades From Sellside Firms – For Up has to be a Buy. For a Down has to be a Sell or Underweight.

Today’s Recommendations:

Wednesday Recommendations:

DISCLAIMER

This communication is for informational purposes only and is solely intended for use by institutional investors. Use of this communication by others, including retail investors, is prohibited. No statement herein is to be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, or to provide investment advice. Certain products, including options and futures, may involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. The information on this webpage is provided by an independent third party. While the information and opinions presented in this material have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Capital Institutional Services, Inc. (CAPIS) to be reliable, CAPIS makes no representations concerning its accuracy or completeness, and accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of this material.