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"CAPIS Morning Note – 11/03/21: The FED Speaks"

posted by CAPIS on 11/03/2021 at 8:32 am

by CAPIS

11/03/2021 at 8:32 am

Overnight Summary: The world waits patiently for the Fed’s next move. Japan was closed for Culture Day. Europe and Asia traded in narrow ranges this morning with the U.S. seeing the SP 500 lower by -2.

Breaking News: Private payrolls up 571,000 in October on jump in hospitality hires, topping estimate, ADP says (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: PRU +1.05, AFG +0.76, PKI +0.56, VRTX +0.51, FNF +0.48, AMGN +0.45, DVN +0.31, KAI +0.30, SKY +0.28, INSP +0.26, TX +0.24, HRB +0.24, RAMP +0.21, SMCI +0.20, ICFI +0.20, HCC +0.19, IOSP +0.19, CWH +0.19, RRR +0.17, FRG +0.17, STE +0.17, OSPN +0.16, CDLX +0.16, AMED +0.16, MANT +0.15, ATVI +0.14, FMC +0.11, CDK +0.10, TMUS +0.09, PRO +0.09, WTI +0.09, LSI +0.08, LYFT +0.08, XENT +0.08, BKH +0.08, VRSK +0.08, HALO +0.07, SEDG +0.07, OKE +0.06, AKAM +0.06, FRSH +0.06, TVTY +0.06, VECO +0.05, TSLX +0.05, WU +0.05, SPT +0.05, APPS +0.05, AIZ +0.05, LSCC +0.04, HURN +0.03, COUR +0.03, DEI +0.03, RARE +0.02, SRC +0.02, PAYC +0.02, AYX +0.01, DENN +0.01, BFAM +0.01, MDLZ +0.01, NMIH +0.01, AWK +0.01, PACB +0.01, MRCY +0.01, NSA +0.01, XPO +0.01
  • Flat: DHT +0.00, EGHT +0.00, AMCR +0.00, CRK +0.00, PEAK +0.00, ICHR +0.00
  • Misses: CZR (1.24), ZG (1.12), LPI (0.59), DCP (0.53), RGNX (0.47), LPSN (0.29), ES (0.24), VOYA (0.21), MTCH (0.15), EXAS (0.14), MGNX (0.14), DCPH (0.12), UNM (0.12), JRVR (0.09), EIX (0.07), UIS (0.07), EXEL (0.07), PUMP (0.06), RDN (0.04), DOX (0.02), KAR (0.02), PAA (0.01)

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • BIRD Pricing of 20.2M Share IPO at $15/sh
    • FRLA: Pricing of $85 Million Initial Public Offering.. 8,500,000 units @$10
    • MLAI: Pricing of $175,000,000 Initial Public Offering.. 17.5Million Units @$10 
    • CMTG: Pricing of 5.5M share IPO at $18.65 at low end of range of $19.65 to $18.65.
  • New SPACs launched: Khosia Ventures Acquisition (KVSB) get shareholder approval to combine with Nextdoor. Motion Acquisition Corp (MOTN)  gets shareholder approval to merge with DocGo.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • AVCT  prices 2.5 million shares at $2 a share.
    • ABG prices 3.3 million shares at $182 a share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • OFC: Prices $400 Million of 2.900% Senior Notes due 2033
    • TEVA: Teva Announces Successful Upsize of Sustainability-Linked Senior Notes Offering and Pricing of $5,000,000,000 of Sustainability-Linked Senior Notes
    • PI priced $250 million of Convertible Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AHT: Filed Form 424B3.. 1,745,260 Shares Common Stock
    • RPTX: Closing of Upsized Offering of Common Shares and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares
    • XM: Launch of Public Offering — 21,482,277 shares of its Class A common stock GS and HSBC Bookmanager
    • TMBR: Proposed Public Offering .. Wainwright bookmanager
    • CRDL: Preliminary Prospectus Supplement for Proposed Public Offering of Units
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None  of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • RYTM: Filed Form S-3.. $300Million Mixed Shelf
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed
    • GBOX: GreenBox POS Announces $100 Million Convertible Note Financing
  • Note Offerings Filed:  None of note

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours:
    • Trading Up:  SMCI +10.6%, SPT +6.8%, CDLX +6%, DVN +5.3%, CWH +4.8%, LYFT +4.3%, SKY +3.3%, EGHT +2.9%, FMC +2.8%, HLF +2.2%, VRTX +2%
    • Trading Down: TX -9.3%, FRSH -9.1%, PAYC -9%, EXEL -8.3%, EXAS -8%, COUR -7.7%, RGNX -7.5%, RRR -6.9%, APPS -6.6%, XPO -6.6%, CZR -6%, MTCH -5.6%, MGNX -5.4%, SEDG -5.4%, AMED -4.9%, ATVI -3.5%, CDK -3.5%, ZG -2.9%, UNM -2.3%, OSPN -2.1%, AMGN -2%, HCC -2%

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -2 Dow Jones Industrial Average -41 NASDAQ +25 Russell 2000 -0.76. Asia lower and Europe mixed. VIX is at 17.91 from 18.36 in futures from yesterday. Gold lower with silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $131.13 from $130.88 with yields at 1.531% from 1.554% yesterday morning. Bitcoin at $62,972 from $63,124 yesterday morning down -0.84% in early morning trading. As of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Tuesday’s Action – 11/02 Close:  

  • Positive Sectors Tuesday: Healthcare, Industrials, Technology
  • Negative Sectors Tuesday: Energy, Consumer Cyclical
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Financials, and Technology of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Technology and Communication Services of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Financials and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Financials, and Communication Services  of note.

Stocks were up with the Dow closing above 36,000 for the first time. Commodities were up with UNG bouncing 5.92%. Updated 11/02 Close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: QCOM, BKNG, EQIX, MET, PXD, ROKU, EA, MFC, HUBS, ALL, FNV, SLF, ANSS, CTVA, ETSY, ALB, FOXA, MGM, IR, AEE, ICLR, FLT, TRMB, TTWO, CDAY, CLR, QRVO, TXG, GFL, KL, PTC, LNC, EQH, LUMN, CF, MRO, QGEN, HST, GDDY, APA, PEN, STNE, MRTX, H, DXC, ITT, WK, RPD, CHNG, RGLD of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: BABA, ZTS, DUK, FIS, CI, BDX, SO, APD, REGN, BCE, PH, EPAM, GOLD, ZBH, BLL, ABC, LNG, W, VMC, CNHI, DISH, PPL, K, CQP, LSPD, PWR, AES, CNP, IRM, HWM, XRAY, CTXS, BLDR, VER, PENN, DOCN, NRG, NTLA, MIDD, STOR, ARW, HII, CHH, GIL, BBIO, CFX, PLNT, OGE, WCC, HBI, REYN, GOOS, NOMD, OPCH, ARVN, TGNA, PZZA of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ICPT +0.98, JLL +0.95, SBGI +0.87, CVE +0.78, FUN +0.61, CPRI +0.58, AAWW +0.56, HFC +0.54, TUP +0.48, SITE +0.47, ODP +0.33, CRTO +0.28, RRD +0.25, LIVN +0.24, HZNP +0.21, EVRG +0.21, ASTE +0.19, CVS +0.18, HUM +0.16, OMI +0.15, AVA +0.14, CLH +0.14, BDC +0.13, CRL +0.12, BR +0.10, AGIO +0.09, CDW +0.08, PCRX +0.08, VIRT +0.08, UTHR +0.07, AMRN +0.07, SUN +0.07, BWA +0.06, SYNH +0.05, CIM +0.05, SMG +0.04, BIP +0.04, RDWR +0.04, EXPI +0.04, SHOO +0.04, PRG +0.04, EMR +0.03, DNOW +0.03, NYT +0.02, EVOP +0.02, SPNS +0.02, MAC +0.02, EXC +0.01, PBI +0.01, NI +0.01, AMRX +0.01
  • Flat: CTRA +0.00, MAR +0.00
  • Misses:  ARVN (3.07), LANC (0.52), EAT (0.44), SPR (0.36), ATH (0.29), FDP (0.29), NFE (0.28), IONS (0.26), RCKT (0.19), DISCA (0.18), NCLH (0.17), PLTK (0.12), LAMR (0.08), EVRI (0.06), WING (0.06), TT (0.05), PSN (0.04), LL (0.03), VSH (0.02), GCP (0.02), ETR (0.01)
  • Still to Report: none

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 11/02 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: BBBY +54.3%, RRD +31.2%, IRTC +17.2%, LYFT +15.6%, SGRY +12.2%, SPT +10.1%, SMCI +8.5%, CDLX +8.3%, TVTY +7.2%, TCS +7.1%, CWH +5.8%, DVN +5.6%, OSPN +5.3%, FRG +5.3%, MOTN +5%, SKY +4.9%, TMUS +3.9%, PKI +3.9%, FNF +3.6%, BNTX +3.3%, PACB +3.3%, FXLV +3%, VRTX +2.9%, RAMP +2.9%, SRG +2.9%, DCPH +2.6%, SITE +2.6%, NVO +2.5%, VECO +2%, CHK +2%
  • Gap Down: ZG -16%, DEI -14.6%, RCKY -13.4%, FRSH -13.2%, ATVI -11.8%, ARGO -9.8%, XM -8.6%, EXAS -8.6%, XPO -8.2%, AVCT -7.9%, FUN -7.5%, UIS -7.1%, MRCY -7%, PRTS -6.8%, DCP -6.5%, EXEL -6.5%, EXPI -6%, APPS -5.6%, BFAM -5.4%, FDP -5.3%, SEDG -4.2%, CZR -4.2%, LAMR -4.2%, GCP -3.9%, LSCC -3.3%, HCC -3.3%, EIX -3.1%, AMRN -3.1%, MANT -2.9%, NFE -2.7%, AWK -2.5%, PAA -2.4%, LL -2.4%, RVI -2.1%, INSP -2.1%, AMED -2%, PRU -2%, TRQ -2%

Insider Action: DOW and SPRO sees Insider buying with dumb short selling and no stocks has smart short sellers with insider buys. 11/02 close

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.  Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Five Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Five Things To Know This Morning. (CNBC)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves NYT, CVS, HUM. (CNBC)
  • Covid cases have climbed week over week to 127,217 from 105,271. (CDC)
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen speaks after Cop26 Conference in support of Climate Investment Funds Capital Markets Mechanism.
  • Biden Administration to Order Federal Agencies to Fix Hundreds of Cyber Flaws, Officials Say *Sweeping Cybersecurity Order Requires Agencies to Fix Hundreds of Vulnerabilities, Officials Say *DHS to Publish Federal Catalog of Cyber Flaws Deemed a Significant Risk.
  • Republican Glenn Youngkin wins Virginia Governor’s race. New Jersey Governor’s race still too close to call.(NYT)
  • Eric Adams (D-NY) wins the NYC Mayorial Race. (NYT)
  • Minneapolis voters reject removing the city’s Police Department. (CBS News)
  • Coal plants may get tax cuts if they install carbon capture systems. (Bloomberg)
  • Pfizer (PFE) notes that CDC Advisory Committee recommended children 5-11 to be vaccinated against Covid-19 with Pfizer/BioNTech pediatric vaccine.
  • Deere (DE) workers resume strike. (Bloomberg)
  • Robinhood looks at scams in Trend Coins with Squid. The Department of Justice looks at Books merger  between Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster from Viacom (VIAC).

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 100%. Updated 11/02 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President arrived at Joint Base Andrews, 1:05 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrived at the White House, 1:25 a.m. EDT
    • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, Oval Office, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by White House COVID-19 Response Team and public health officials, 1:45 p.m. EDT
  • Fed Speakers:
    • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) will conclude its latest meeting with their announcement at 2:00 p.m. followed by a presser at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

Economic:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT
  • October ADP Employment Index is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 370,000 from 568,000
  • PMI Composite Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 61.70% from 61.90%.
  • September Factory Orders is also due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected  to fall to -0.1%
  • EIA petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity:

  • MIR: Mirion Technologies, Inc. Acquires Dosimetry Services Distributor Based in Clinton, Tennessee
  • ICFI: ICF Acquires ESAC
  • VRSK: Verisk Acquires Data Driven Safety to Further Expand Auto Insurance Analytics
  • JBT: JBT Corporation Acquires Urtasun Tecnología Alimentaria S.L.
  • STEP: StepStone Real Estate, BVK and Universal-Investment Form Partnership to Acquire Secondaries Globally
  • RRD: RR Donnelly & Sons gets increased offer from Chatham Asset Mgmt to $9.00 to $9.50.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: Credit Suisse China Investment Conference (11/1-5) Citi China Investor Conference (11/1-3), Goldman Sachs China Conference (11/1-5), Wolfe Research Wealth Symposium (11/2-3), Credit Suisse Brazil Basic Materials Conference, Gabelli Automotive Symposium
  • Company Meetings: CB, CPE, PCSA, TPR, WHLR
  • Investor/Analyst Day: CMMB, KO, KYNC, PHUN
  • Update: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Today’s Recommendations:

Tuesday’s Recommendations:

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