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"CAPIS Morning Note – 11/18/21: Will The SP 500 Take out 4700 Today?"

posted by CAPIS on 11/18/2021 at 8:24 am

by CAPIS

11/18/2021 at 8:24 am

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 is now up 12 points. It appears a break through 4700 may be in the cards for today’s trading. Asia was weak but Japan did turn around in the last hour as hope that a bigger stimulus is in the offing. Europe is little changed this morning. 7:20 a.m. EST

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: CPA +0.83, BBWI  +0.31, HI +0.11, VSCO +0.11, CPRT +0.07, NVDA +0.06, TTEK +0.05, CSCO +0.02, KLIC +0.01, ZTO +0.01
  • Flat: None
  • Misses: HP (0.11), SONO (0.02)

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Sweetgreen (SG) prices 13 mln share IPO at $28.00 per share
    • Redaptive files for IPO
  • New SPACs launched:
    • Blue Safari Group Acquisition (BSGA) to take Bitdeer Technology public, values Bitdeer at $4 billion
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • Clover Health (CLOV)
    • CTOS: Pricing of Secondary Offering of Common Stock .. 12,322,975 shares @$8.50
    • CERT: Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock .. 10Million @$31
    • DH: Pricing of Follow-On Offering of 11,000,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock..@$36
    • DV: Pricing of Secondary Offering .. 8M @$31.25
    • MITT: Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock.. 7Million @$10.25
    • NOG: Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock.. 10Million @$20
    • VCTR: Pricing of Secondary Offering .. 4Million @$34
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • HTZ: Pricing of $1.5 Billion Private Offering of Senior Notes by The Hertz Corporation
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CBAY: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.. Piper and RJ Bookmanagers
    • FRLN: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $75,000,000 ADS
    • KHC: Secondary Offering of Common Stock.. BAC Underwriter
    • LTRX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. Canaccord and Hallum bookmanager
    • SJW
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CELC: Filed Form S-3.. $150Million Mixed Shelf
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed
    • BILI: Bilibili Inc. Announces Proposed Offering of US$1,400 Million Convertible Senior Notes
    • STEM
    • AFRM Affirm Announces Proposed Offering of US1.25 Billion Convertible Senior Notes
  • Note Offerings Filed: 
    • CAMT: Proposed Private Offering of $140 Million of Convertible Senior Notes due 2026

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: IIIV +13%, VSCO +12%, THRY +10, NVDA +4%, BBBY +4%, SAND +3%
    • Trading Down: LTRX -11%, CSCO -6%, CAMT -6%, ZTO -6%, MAXN -5%
  • News Items:
  • Stock Split:
    • BIOLASE (BIOL) Urges Stockholders to Vote Now “FOR” Reverse Stock Split.
  • 13F Filing: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing News:
    • Thryv (THRY) to join S&P SmallCap 600, effective prior to the open on November 24
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • ATHM 200 Million Share Repurchase Program
    • Group 1 Auto (GPI)
    • Hyzon Motors (HYZN)
    • Merchants Bancorp (MBIN) Announces Renewal of Stock Repurchase Program
    • Primerica (PRI)
    • The Children’s Place (PLCE) to repurchase up to an additional $250 Million of stock
    • Sonos (SONO) Announces $150 Million Stock Repurchase Program and Completion of Previous Stock Repurchase Program
    • Yatsen (YSG) Announces US$100 Million Share Repurchase Program
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Agilent (A) Increases Dividend
    • Group 1 Auto (GPI)
    • Kite Realty (KRG) Increases Dividend
    • Matthews International (MATW) Increases Quarterly Dividend
    • NOV Inc. (NOV)
    • Tetra Tech (TTEK) Increase Dividend
    • Wyndham Hotels and Resorts (WH) Increases Dividend

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +13 Dow Jones Industrial Average ++37 NASDAQ +90 Russell 2000 -3. Asia and Europe mixed. VIX is at 20.11 from 19.98 in futures from yesterday. Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs China, higher vs Aussie Dollar and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $130.48 from $130.11 with yields at 1.601 from  1.644%  yesterday morning. Bitcoin at $60,295 from $60,093 yesterday morning up 1.17% in early morning trading. As of 8:13 a.m. EST.

Wednesday’s Action – 11/17 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: none of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Financial, Industrial, Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, and Technology of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Communication Services, and Technology of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Technology, and Communication Services  of note.

Stocks ended mixed with the Russell 2000 pulling back 1%.  UNG down 5% and continues wide swings. Updated 11/17 Close.

   

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: INTU, AMAT, WDAY, PANW, ROST, NUAN, WSM, UGI, WWD, POST, BECN, ESE, CAL of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: FL, HIBB of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: JD +1.14, PLCE +1.03, KSS +0.95, M +0.90, ATKR +0.55, CSIQ +0.29, MMS +0.21, BJ +0.10, AZEK +0.04, BERY +0.03, WOOF +0.02
  • Flat: ATHM +0.00
  • Misses: BABA (1.24), PLTO (0.08), NJR (0.04), VIPS (0.03), BRC (0.01)
  • Still to Report: none

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 11/17 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

    • Gap Up: VSCO +13%, ZTO +10%, THRY +8%, IIIV +8%, NVDA +7%, YY +6%, OTLY +5%, ATKR +4%, KLIC +4%, SONO +3%, CSIQ +3%, BBBY +3%, CPA +3%, SAND +3%, DCGO +3%
    • Gap Down: LTRX -16%, CERT -9%, CSCO -6%, CLOV -6%, CTOS -5%, VIPS -4%, CBAY -4%, NVTS -3%, VCTR -3%, BABA -3%

Insider Action: No stocks sees Insider buying with dumb short selling and NAUT, CLNN has smart short sellers with insider buys. 11/12 close

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.  Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score decreases to 76% down from 93%. Updated 11/17 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks and signs into law S. 1511, the “Protecting America’s First Responders Act of 2021,” S. 1502, the “Confidentiality Opportunities for Peer Support Counseling Act or the COPS Counseling Act,” and S. 921, the “Jaime Zapata and Victor Avila Federal Officers and Employees Protection Act”, 9:45 a.m. EST
    • The President participates in a bilateral meeting with The Right Honorable Justin Trudeau, P.C., M.P., Prime Minister of Canada, 1:15 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 1:45 p.m. EST
    • The President participates in a bilateral meeting with His Excellency Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President of the United Mexican States, 3:00 p.m. EST
    • The President hosts The Right Honorable Justin Trudeau, P.C., M.P., Prime Minister of Canada, and His Excellency Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President of the United Mexican States, for the North American Leaders’ Summit, 4:45 p.m. EST

Economic

  • November Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 22 from 23.8.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • October Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 0.8% from 0.2%
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 8:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 9:30 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans 2:00 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly 3:30 p.m. EST

M&A Activity

  • Cisco Systems (CSCO) Intends to acquire Replex GMBH, a privately held enterprise software company based in Germany
  • Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) completes acquisition of Ferrous Processing and Trading Company
  • iRobot (IRBT) acquires air purification company, Aeris Cleantec AG
  • Signet Jewelers (SIG) finalizes acquisition Of Diamonds Direct
  • Zurn Water Solutions (ZWS) announces acquisition of Wade Drains product line; terms not disclosed
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) to buy Dicerna Pharmaceuticals (DRNA) for $38.25 a share and closed yesterday at $21.28

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Consumer and Retail Conference 2021 (11/17-11/18)
    • Bank of America Securities Global Energy Conference 2021 (11/17-11/18)
    • Barclays Global Automotive and Mobility Tech Conference 2021 (11/17-11/18)
    • Canaccord Genuity 15th Annual (MedTech) Medical Technologies & Diagnostics Forum 2021
    • Citi Fintech Conference 2021 (11/15-11/18)
    • Deutsche Bank dbaccess Gaming, Lodging, Leisure and Restaurants Conference 2021 (11/18-11/19)
    • Goldman Sachs Global Metals & Mining Conference 2021 (11/17-11-18)
    • Jefferies 12th Annual London Global Healthcare Conference 2021 (11/15-11/19)
    • Jefferies Sixth Annual Virtual BDC Summit 2021
    • JMP Securities Financial Services and Real Estate Conference 2021
    • JP Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference 2021
    • Morgan Stanley European Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2021 (11/17-11/19)
    • Morgan Stanley 20th Annual Asia Pacific Summit 2021 (11/17-11/19)
    • Needham Networking, Communications & Security Conference 2021 (11/15-11/18)
    • Needham Virtual SaaS 1×1 Conference 2021
    • Oppenheimer 4th Blockchain & Digital Assets Summit 2021
    • ROTH Capital 10th Annual Technology and Inaugural AgTech Answers Virtual Event 2021 (11/16-11/18)
    • Wells Fargo Bank IT Tech Bootcamp 2021
    • Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference 2021 (11/17-11/18)
  • Company Meetings:
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day: ADIL, AFOM, COTY, CNHI, CTSH, EVH, FIVN, IR, JBLU, MGPI, PRQR, PSTV, SQSP, SYK, TDOC, VRME, WK, WW, ZEN
  • Update:
    • J&J (JNJ) Business Review
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Conference Call: GILD of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American College of Toxicology 42nd Annual Meeting 2021 (11/10-11/19)
    • 26th Annual Meeting of the Society for Neuro-Oncology SNO 2021 (11/18-11/21)
    • Association for Molecular Pathology (AMP) Annual Meeting & Expo 2021 (11/16-11/20)
    • Vaccine World Asia Congress & Global COVID-19 Vaccine Manufacturing & Supply Chain Summit (virtual conference) 2021 (11/17-11/18)
    • Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) Convention 2021 (11/17-11/18)
    • Construction Owner’s Association of America COAA 2021 Fall Leadership Roundtable (11/17-11/19)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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