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09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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Morning Note

"CAPIS Morning Note – 02/16/22: FOMC Minutes Out At 2:00 p.m. EST As Well As Retail Sales At 8:30 a.m. EST"

posted by CAPIS on 02/16/2022 at 8:25 am

by CAPIS

02/16/2022 at 8:25 am

Please Note: CAPIS to Hold its February Research Briefing on Feb 17th with Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton. Register here

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 4464.50. Overnight a low of  4452 was hit at 11:00 p.m. EST and then it rallied to 4479 at 4:00 a.m. EST before dropping to 4461.25 down by -3.25 points.  Asia was higher overnight at it piggybacked off the strength of the U.S. on Tuesday. Europe is mixed this morning with only Germany higher.

Breaking News: NATO states that Russia is actually building up more troops than drawing down troops. (WSJ)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: WIRE +3.74, CINF +0.61, UPST +0.38, IOSP +0.23, MRC +0.22, GXO +0.20, DVN +0.15, WH +0.15, AYX +0.11, TOST +0.11, MASI +0.11, TX +0.08, AKAM +0.07, ACCO +0.05, QTWO +0.05, ZI +0.05, ABNB +0.04, CORT +0.04, LSCC +0.04, ADPT +0.02, NMIH +0.02, WELL +0.02, ATRC +0.01, NVTS +0.01.
  • Flat: INVH +0.00.
  • Misses: IAC (0.70), WFG (0.24), LZB (0.24), CRK (0.24), SEDG (0.22), VIAC (0.19), RBLX (0.18), WYNN (0.12), CF (0.11), REZI (0.08), CRSP (0.06), PACB (0.02), ESMT (0.02), AMK (0.01), DENN (0.01), ANGI (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • TC Biopharm (TCBP) Announces Closing of $17.5 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ALE: Filed Form S-3ASR — 3,093,124 Shares of Common Stock.
    • BBCP: Filed Form S-3.. 13,017,777 Shares of Common Stock Issuable Upon Exercise of Warrants.
    • CEAD: Closing of $24 Million Public Offering.
    • CETX: Filed Form S-1.. 250,000 Shares of Series 1 Preferred Stock.
    • LPTH: Filed Form S-3.. $75,800,000 Share and Warrants offering.
    • RFL: Filed Form S-3.. 2,833,425 Shares of Class B Common Stock.
    • TWST: Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ATOM: Filed Form S-3.. $100Million Mixed Shelf.
    • MASI: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) Prices $6 Billion of Senior Unsecured Notes.
    • Kimco Realty (KIM) Announces Pricing of $600 Million Aggregate Principal Amount of 3.200% Notes due 2032.
    • KMPR: Prices $400 Million Senior Notes Offering.
    • RAVE Restaurant Group, Inc. (RAVE) Reports Extinguishment of Convertible Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: UPST +23%, ESMT +9%, AYX +8%, CRSR +8%, CELU +6%, ACCO +5%, ANDE +5%, WIRE +5%, LSCC +4%ABNB +4%, ENLC +4%.
    • Trading Down: RBLX +14%, TOST -13%, LZB -13%, ZI -11%, ANGI -10%, PACB -9%, MRTX -8%, VIAC -6%, MASI -6%, NVTS -6%, AKAM -5%, WH -4%, CF -4%, PDFS -4%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ABNB, WYNN, RBLX, DENN   (CNBC)
    • Airbnb (ABNB) beats on earnings and gives strong guidance. (CNBC)
    • La-Z-Boy (LZB) stock drops after furniture maker reveals multiple supply-chain snags. (MarketWatch)
    • Toast (TOST) stock falls more than 11% after wider quarterly loss (MarketWatch)
    • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) to Sell the Real Estate of Encore Boston Harbor to Realty Income for $1.70 billion Through a Sale-Leaseback Transaction.
    • Lockheed Martin’s (LMT) Sikorsky Aircraft awarded $370 million Defense Logistics Agency contract.
    • Moderna (MRNA) Announces Plan to Expand Footprint in Asia with Four Additional Subsidiaries.
    • RCL CCL NCLH CDC Lowers Cruise Ship Covid-19 Level To High From Very High.
    • American Airlines (AAL) signs firm order with Embraer SA (ERJ) for three new E175s.
    • 13 F filings out from hedge fund managers including: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • SP Index Changes:
      • S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Old National Bancorp (ONB) will swap places with Urban Edge Properties (UE) in the S&P MidCap 400 about February 16.
      • Corsair Gaming (CRSR) will replace First Midwest Bancorp (FMBI) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Friday, February 18.
    • ACCO Brands (ACCO) CFO plans to retire this year.  A search for his successor is underway. Neal Fenwick, 37 year career, will remain active full-time until his successor is named and will assist with the transition.
    • Cowen (COWN) Appoints Lorence Kim as New Independent Board Director.
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Names Darius Adamczyk, Chairman and CEO of Honeywell, to its Board of Directors.
    • U.S. Steel (X) Christine Breves, CFO, to leave the company in 2022 after nine years with the company.
    • ViacomCBS (VIAC) to change its name to Paramount Global. (CNBC)
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • CB Financial Services, Inc. (CBFV) Announces Completion of $7.5 Million Stock Repurchase Program.
    • Devon Energy (DVN) expands share repurchase program.
    • Denny’s (DENN) increased share repurchase program by $10.7 million.
    • DHI Group (DHX) Announces New $15 Million Stock Repurchase Program.
    • GOLD share repurchase program up to $1.0 billion.
    • Innospec (IOSP) announces new share repurchase program for up to $50 million.
    • NMIH Announces $125 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • OC additional 10 million share repurchase program.
    • Upstart (UPST) Announces Share Repurchase Program of up to $400 million of common stock.
    • Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH) increases share repurchase program by $400 million.
  • Stock Splits:
    • Baudax Bio (BXRX) Announces 1-for-35 Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) increases quarterly dividend $0.03 to $0.18 per share.
    • Analog Devices (ADI) increases its quarterly dividend to $0.76 per share, a 10% increase.
    • Devon Energy (DVN) increases quarterly dividend $0.16 to $1.00 per share.
    • Barrick (GOLD) increases quarterly dividend to $0.10, an 11% increase.
    • Kinsale Capital (KNSL) increases cash dividend $0.02 to $0.13 per share.
    • Nexa (NEXA) Announces Cash Dividend and Share Premium Distribution of US$50 Million.
    • Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS) Announces Dividend Increase.
    • Sonic Automotive Reports (SAH) Raises Quarterly Cash Dividend By 108%.
    • Ternium S.A. (TX) proposes an annual dividend of $2.60 per ADS.
    • Wabtec (WAB) increases dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

SS&P 500 -11, Dow Jones -66NASDAQ -43 and Russell 2000-4.06.  Asia higher and Europe mixed with Germany higher. VIX Futures are at 25.60 from 25.42 yesterday morning. Gold is lower with Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 2.035% from 2.031% yesterday.  Bitcoin is at $44,073 from $44,188 down -0.14%. As of 8:12 a.m. EST

Tuesday’s Action – 02/15/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Industrials, Communication Services, Financial, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Financial, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Real Estate, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Financial of note.

Markets sprung back to life while the tension of the Russia-Ukraine Situation cools down a touch.  The Russell 2000 was up 2.76%.  Oil was down 3.15%.  Updated 02/15/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: NVDA, CSCO, AMAT, EQIX, PXD, NTR, AIG, SNPS, WCN, DASH, CPRT, AWK, ALB, APP, TYL, MRO, WFG, HST, H, TXG, PEGA, STAG, KGC, QS, RGLD, AR, SAM, UFPI, CRSP, VMI, SM, OCDX, ALSN, ATUS, KNBE, ATCO, TRUP, HPP, TROX, FSR, COMP, LOPE, FSLY, SPWR, KAI, ROIC, FCPT, CAKE, INFN, CYH, VECO, PLMR, CDE, EIG, RPT, CNDT, FARO, OIS, BCOV of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: WMT, SO, BIDU, BAX, WST, EPAM, PLTR, GPC, POOL, NICE, LKQ, RGEN, RS, SEE, SYNH, OGN, USFD, AN, RCM, GPK, YETI, IDA, VG, ROG, POR, IRDM, SAFM, FOCS, TSEM, CIM, THRM, FVRR, TRN, TPH, BRC, ITGR, HL, INSM, AAWW, MD, IDCC, CBZ, COMM, IRWD, HIMX, MTRN, GEL, AVNS, DNOW, GEO, TNK of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: SAH +0.81, ALKS +0.65, SFL +0.34, AMCX +0.33, SITE +0.31, OC +0.29, CROX +0.25, NUS +0.16, BCOR +0.16, KHC +0.16, ADI +0.15, TTD +0.14, GRMN +0.12, ALE +0.12, SUN +0.11, GNRC +0.10, VMC +0.08, CRL +0.06, SHOP +0.05, WIX +0.05, GOLD +0.05, DNB +0.03, DAVA +0.02, DRVN +0.02, WAB +0.01, IS +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: BPMC (4.25), FLOW (0.17), WING (0.08), AIMC (0.08), HLT (0.02), FUN (0.02).
  • Still to Report: CHH , R.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: LSCC, SEDG, ZI, UPST, ESMT, TOST, ABNB, GXO, GNRC.
  • Negative Guidance: ATRC, LZB, NVTS, ACCO, QTWO, AKAM, WIX, ALE.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 02/15/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: UPST 25%, AYX 9%, CRSR 9%, GXO 8%, ACCO 8%, MRC 7%, ANDE 6%, ENLC 4%, WIRE 4%, UE 4%, INVH 4%, LSCC 4%, ESMT 4%.
  • Gap Down: TOST -16%, RBLX -16%, LZB -13%, ZI -13%, WIX -12%, FUN -11%, PACB -11%, VIAC -9%, ANGI -8%, NVTS -7%, MRTX -7%, MASI -6%, AKAM -5%, DENN -5%, ATOM -5%, AIN -5%, PDFS -4%.

Insider ActionKLIC, INFU sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. ALPN, APRN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 02/15/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Covid cases at 203,533 from 353, 406 with hospitalizations at 80,185  from 105,449. (CDC).
  • Ukraine President Zelensky sees no evidence yet of Russian troop withdrawals. (BBC)
  • An economist survey finds most think a rate rise will be 25 basis points. (Reuters)
  • Former President Trump’s new social media site Truth Social (DWAC) looks similar to Twitter (TWTR).
  • Moderna (MRNA) CEO Stephane Bancel say that it is “reasonable” to assume U.S. in the final stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. (CNBC)
  • Morgan Stanley’s (MS) Pawan Passi faces investigation into firms block trading practices. (Bloomberg)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at Intel (INTC) purchase of Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) as seeks to compete with China. Reviews Squarespace (SQSP) and its savvy ads to bring in customers.

Moving Average Update:

  • Like Rocky Balboa getting off the mat, score goes from 0% to 43%.  Updated 02/15/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by White House COVID-19 Response Team and public health officials, 11:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 1:00 p.m. EST

Economic

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
  • January Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to come in at 1.9% from -1.9% last month.
  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 a.m. EST
  • January Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.4% from -0.1%.
  • February NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to remain at 83.
  • Business Inventories 10:00 a.m. EST
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • January FOMC Minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.
    • EL Erian Tweet: The Fed releases today the minutes of its last FOMC meeting. They will be closely scrutinized due to The fluidity of the policy/economic context; and What happened last time when the takeaways from the minutes seemed to differ from what was communicated right after that meeting

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari (non-voter) speaking today at 11 a.m..EST

M&A Activity:

  • Akamai (AKAM) To Acquire Linode to Provide Businesses with a Developer-friendly and Massively-distributed Platform to Build, Run and Secure Applications.
  • BrightView (BV) announces the acquisition of Winter Services Incorporated.
  • Masimo (MASI) acquires Sound United for $1.025 billion.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Citi Immuno-Oncology Conference 2022 (02/16/22-02/17/22)
    • Credit Suisse 23rd Annual Financials Services Forum 2022 (02/16/22-02/18/22)
    • Daiwa Investment Conference
    • Keefe Bruyette and Woods KBW Winter Financial Services Conference 2022 (02/16/22-02/18/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Bank of America Securities Insurance Conference 2022 (02/15/22-02/16/22)
        • BTIG (MedTech) Medical Technology, Digital Health, Life Science and Diagnostic Tools Conference 2022 (02/15/22-02/17/22)
        • SVB Leerink 11th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2022 (02/14/22-02/18/22)
  • Company Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: HCKT, ELYM, MRKR, NEWR, NUS, RYTM.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Miami International Boat Show & Strictly Sail 2022 (02/16/22-02/20/22)
    • European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • BIO CEO & Investor Digital Conference 2022 (02/14/22-02/18/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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