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09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 03/03/22: Stocks Trading In A 20 Point Range Last Night, A Miracle. Day Two Of Powell Testimony"

posted by CAPIS on 03/03/2022 at 8:17 am

by CAPIS

03/03/2022 at 8:17 am

Overnight Summary:  Overnight has seen the S&P 500 trade down to 4370 and up to 4390. Currently, we are at 4377.75 down -4 points or -0.09%. This action is very normal and atypical of what we have seen the last month. Europe and Asia are mixed in trading this morning.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: JXN +2.18, SPLK +0.86, AI +0.19, NTNX +0.14, PSTG +0.10, GEF +0.09, SGFY +0.08, VSCO +0.07, OKTA +0.06, VEEV +0.02, ZUO +0.01, BOX +0.01.
  • Flat: AEO +0.00.
  • Misses: SNOW (0.46), FLYW (0.06), CPNG (0.04), RSI (0.03), PLAN (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Perfect Corp., a Leading AR and AI SaaS Solution Provider in the Beauty and Fashion Industries, to List on Nasdaq by Merging with Provident Acquisition Corp (PAQC).
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • AYTU: Pricing of $7.6 Million Registered Offering.
    • SAFE: Priced 2 million shares at $59 a share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • Innoviva, Inc. (INVA) Prices Upsized Offering of $225 Million of 2.125% Convertible Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • KREF: Public Offering of Common Stock.. 6Million shares.. MS, WFC, GS, RJ, BCS, Citi and DB Bookmanagers.
    • MDWD: Proposed Public Offering of Ordinary Shares.. Opp. bookmanager.
    • PLNT: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 4,155,026 Shares of Common Stock.
    • RMNI: Filed Form S-3.. 23,824,357 Shares.
    • VBTX: Files Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment:
    • BWMN: Full Exercise and Closing of Underwriters’ Overallotment Option in Follow-On Public Offering.
  • Direct Offering:
    • AIKI: Closing of $22 Million Registered Direct Offering.
    • FAMI: Closing of US$6.0 Million Private Placement.
    • FWBI: Closing of $9 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • Peloton (PTON) ex-CEO sells $50 million of stock to Michael Dell’s firm.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • SAFE: Public Offering and Concurrent Private Placement.. 1.75Million shares.. MS, BAC, GS and JPM Bookmanagers.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AES: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed shelf offering.
    • AMRX: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Stock shelf offering.
    • CNCE: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • PNM: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • Crown Castle (CCI )Announces Pricing of Senior Notes Offering.
    • Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) Prices $550 Million Senior Notes Offering.
    • Post Holdings (POST) Announces Redemption of $840.0 Million of 5.75% Senior Notes Due March 2027.
    • Lumentum (LITE) Announces $750 million convertible notes offering due in 2028.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: IOT 15%, RMNI 13%, PSTG 11%, RELY 10%, GSM 9%, CDR 9%, SGFY 8%, CHPT 7%, MRAM 7%, BOX 6%, PLAN 6%, ZUO 5%, FLYW 5%, JXN 4%.
    • Trading Down: NCNA -59%, SNOW -23%, WEAV -17%, RSI -11%, VEEV -10%, HEAR -9%, AEO -8%, ASND -8%, OKTA -6%, KIDS -5%, AI -5%, KREF -4%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: SNOW, AEO, BOX, PSTG  (CNBC)
    • Snowflake (SNOW) plunges almost 30% on slowing revenue growth (CNBC)
    • Apple (AAPL) to hold March 8 event, expected to bring new iPhone SE model (MarketWatch)
    • Twitter (TWTR) suspends Russian-state media RT and Sputnik accounts in EU.
    • Don’t Sleep on Citigroup (C) (WSJ)
    • Citigroup (C) hikes U.S. equities to ‘overweight’, sees demand for growth stocks.
    • MSCI to remove Russia indexes from emerging markets status.
    • Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov’s mega-yacht seized by Germans.  France seizes superyacht linked to Russian energy boss Sechin.
    • REI Workers in New York Vote to Unionize (NYT) – Sidenote: TSLA Elon Musk tweets at UAW and invites them to hold a vote (Tweet)
    • Boeing (BA) awarded $500 million Navy contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Everspin (MRAM) Announces Appointment of Sanjeev Aggarwal as New President and CEO on March 14.
    • La-Z-Boy (LZB) Announces Planned Retirement of Darrell Edwards, COO; Names Mike Leggett SVP and Chief Supply Chain Officer.
    • NewAge, Inc. (NBEV) Appoints Michele Crocker to its Board of Directors.
    • Pardes Biosciences (PRDS) appoints Thomas G. Wiggins as CEO and Chair.
    • Quhuo (QH) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Notice.
    • Splunk (SPLK) Names Gary Steele Chief Executive Officer.
    • TD Holdings, Inc. (GLG) Granted Extension to Meet Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Aaron’s (AAN) Directors Increase Share Repurchase Authorization to $250 Million.
    • Bluegreen Vacations Holding (BVH) increases share repurchase program by additional $50 million.
    • Fortune Brands (FBHS) Announces $750 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • Jackson (JXN) Announces a $300 Million Increase to its Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • MELI: Form 8K.. On March 1, 2022 the Board of Directors (the “Board”) authorized an increase in its existing share repurchase program by $300,000,000, from an aggregate consideration of up to $150,000,000 to an aggregate consideration of up to $450,000,000.
    • MGM Resorts International (MGM) announces new $2.0 billion share repurchase program. (MarketWatch)
    • Rimini Street (RMNI) authorizes $15 million common stock repurchase plan.
    • SWK: Announces $2.0 Billion Accelerated Share Repurchase Program.
    • Summit Materials, Inc. (SUM) Announces $250 million Stock Repurchase Program.
    • J.M. Smucker (SJM) to repurchase 2 million shares this March.
    • Lumentum (LITE) increases share repurchase authorization to $1 billion.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Huazhu Group (HTHT) declared cash dividend of US$0.021 per American Depositary Share.
    • Jackson (JXN) Announces First Quarter Fiscal 2022 Cash Dividend of $0.55 Per Share.
    • SpartanNash (SPTN) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.01 to $0.21 per share.
    • Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) increases quarterly dividend $0.05 to $0.40 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -3, Dow Jones -0.35 NASDAQ -29, and Russell 2000 -4.  Asia and Europe mixed. VIX Futures are at 30.02 from 31.05 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.859% from 1.767% yesterday.  Bitcoin is at $43,752 from $43,954  at -0.10%. As of 8:10 a.m. EST

Wednesday’s Action – 03/02/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: All – but on top is Basic Materials, Energy, Industrials, Financial, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: none of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Healthcare and Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Basic Materials of note.

Stocks gained across the board with Russell 2000 leading the pack at 2.51% jump.  Oil and Natural gas were both up 5%+.  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he would propose a 1/4 rate hike at the upcoming central bank meeting in 2 weeks.  Jerome Powell continues his appearance on Capital Hill with the Senate today.  Updated 03/02/22 close.

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: COST, MRVL, COO, AQN, ESTC, GPS, PAGS, DUOL, VZIO, AVAV, GDYN, SWBI, EOLS, NCMI, PBYI of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: HIBB, BLUE of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: GOGO +1.48, KR +0.17, BF.B +0.06, BJ +0.06, BILI +0.04, TD +0.03, BBY +0.02, WB +0.01, HLLY +0.01.
  • Flat: GMS +0.00.
  • Misses: BURL (0.68), BIG (0.14), UTZ (0.04).
  • Still to Report: CNQ, TTC.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: PSTG, BOX, PLANSPLK, GEF, FLYW, RELY, SGFY, UTZ, MEI, HLLY.
  • Negative Guidance: VSCO, WEAV, WDC, BILI, BIG, MTLS, BBY.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 03/02/22 close.

 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: RELY +14%, CDR +14%, IOT +11%, GOGO +11%, GSM +10%, SGFY +9%, PSTG +8%, RMNI +8%, FLYW +6%, BOX +6%, PLAN +6%, CHPT +5%, AAN +4%, JXN +4%, ZUO +4%, WB +4%.
  • Gap Down: NCNA -52%, WEAV -26%, SNOW -21%, RSI -16%, VEEV -11%, BJ -10%, ASND -7%, OKTA -6%, AEO -6%, KREF -4%, SAFE -4%.

Insider Action: GLT, GLPI sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. EEX sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 03/02/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia may introduce martial law notes EU Official.
  • Ukrainian delegation on way for talks with Russia. (Podolyak)
  • Governor of Ukraine’s Kherson region notes that Russian have control of Regional Administration Building.
  • Germany to send Ukraine new weapons.
  • WHO will endorse Merck (MRK) Covid pill. (Bloomberg)
  • Spotify (SPOT) to close Russian office. (Variety)
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) ended its relationship with Islet Management as block trading investigation expands. (Bloomberg)
  • PayPal (PYPL) will no longer accept new users from Russia. (Reuters)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at how crypto is being used in the war. AMC to use variable pricing for blockbusters as “premiumazation” begins.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves to 46% from 6%.  Updated 03/02/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President holds a secure video call with fellow Quad Leaders, Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan, to discuss the war against Ukraine and its implications for the Indo-Pacific, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 11:15 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 1:00 p.m. EST
    • The President holds a Cabinet meeting; The Vice President attends, 2:00 p.m. EST
    • The President signs into law H.R. 4445, the “Ending Forced Arbitration of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment Act of 2021”; The President and The Vice President deliver remarks; the Attorney General and the Secretary of Labor attend, 5:00 p.m. EST

Economic

  • Challenger Job Cut 7:30 a.m. EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Productivity and Costs 8:30 a.m. EST
  • PMI Composite Final 9:45 a.m. EST
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 61.0% from 59.90%.
  • January Factory Orders is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to improve to 0.5% from -0.4%.
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Research Chair Jerome Powell 10:00 a.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • ALLETE (ALE) Advances Solar Strategy by Acquiring New Energy Equity, a Leading Solar Development Company.
  • Cedar Realty Trust (CDR) announces agreements for sale of company and its assets following dual-track review of strategic alternatives.
  • PagerDuty (PD) to Acquire Catalytic, Continue Transforming Digital Operations with Industry Leading No-Code Workflow Automation.
  • Pentair (PNR) Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire Manitowoc Ice (WBT) for $1.6 billion.
  • Snowflake (SNOW) Announces Intent to Acquire Streamlit to Empower Developers and Data Scientists to Mobilize the World’s Data.
  • Veritex Holding (VBTX) to buy StoneCastle Cash Insured Sweep for $91 million.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Berenberg Industrial Technologies Conference
    • Citigroup Mexico Plenaria Virtual Conference
    • Evercore ISI Payments and FinTech Innovators Forum 2022 (03/03/22-03/04/22)
    • Goldman Sachs 18th Annual Australia and New Zealand Investment Forum 2022
    • Susquehanna 11th Annual Technology Conference 2022 (03/03/22-03/07/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Bank of America Global Securities Agriculture and Materials Conference 2022 (03/02/22-03/04/22)
        • Barclays Investment Grade Energy & Pipeline Corporate Day 2022 (03/02/22-03/03/22)
        • BMO Digital Advertising Summit 2022 (03/02/22-03/04/22)
        • Cowen Mobility Disruption Conference 2022 (03/02/22-03/04/22)
        • Jefferies Cannabis Summit 2022
        • Wedbush Real Estate Technology Conference 2022 (03/02/22-03/03/22)
        • Bank of America Power, Utilities & Clean Energy Leaders Conference 2022 (03/01/22-03/03/22)
        • Credit Suisse London Global Healthcare Conference 2022 (03/01/22-03/03/22)
        • Keefe, Bruyette and Woods (KBW) Payments Finance and Technology (FinTech) Conference 2022 (03/01/22-03/03/22)
  • Company Meetings: EZPW, FTSI.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AWI, CABO, DD, DKNG, HON, LOGI, NEX, VZ.
  • Update: .
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: NVO, NVTS, MDRX, ALE.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Glaucoma Society (AGS) Annual Meeting 2022 (03/03/22-03/06/22)
    • International Society for the Study of Women(R)s Sexual Health (ISSWSH) 2022 (03/03/22-03/06/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • 2nd Annual Food, Packaging & Sustainability Sonoco Fresh Summit 2022 (03/02/22-03/04/22)
        • 4th Chronic Kidney Disease Drug Development Summit (previously CKD3) 2022 (03/01/22-03/03/22)
        • American Society for Experimental Neurotherapeutics (ASENT) Annual Meeting 2022 (02/27/22-03/03/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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