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09.23.2022 11 new Morning Note posts under Morning Note (10) and CAPIS Insights (1)

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"CAPIS Morning Note – 03/08/22: Stocks Turn Around From Overnight Lows On European Bond Deal. S&P 500 Futures Up Modestly"

posted by CAPIS on 03/08/2022 at 8:23 am

by CAPIS

03/08/2022 at 8:23 am

Overnight Summary:  The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 4201.09 with a low of 4199.85 so we got a test of 4200. Overnight a low of 4138.75 was hit before rebounding to 4224 at 7:15 a.m. EST up 25.50 points or 0.61%. After a drop of more than -2%, the chance of a bounce of more than 1% is 50% so this morning’s action is not a surprise.

Breaking News: EU is working on a massive joint bond sale to aid defense spending  and fund energy. Futures turned around on this news overnight.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: ROVR +0.19, MASS +0.04.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: AVDX (0.18), TDUP (0.02).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • RWT: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $175,000,000 Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • Biodesix (BDSX) Announces Common Stock Purchase Agreement for up to $50 Million with Lincoln Park Capital.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • Valaris (VAL) files for 14,495,079 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • IVT: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf .
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: CLAR +10%, MASS +8%.
    • Trading Down: ROVR -17%, TDUP -10%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Russia Threatens to Cut Gas Flows to Europe Via the Nord Stream 1 Pipeline (Bloomberg)
    • JPMorgan (JPM) Removes Russian Bonds From All of Its Fixed-Income Indexes (Bloomberg).
    • Kohl’s (KSS) Shares Post Biggest Drop Since 2020 After Investor Day (Bloomberg)
    • Calvin Klein parent PVH closes stores, halts operations in Russia, Belarus (MarketWatch)
    • ThredUp (TDUP) stock falls more than 11% after mixed quarter, guidance (MarketWatch)
    • Global jet fuel prices have surged to near 14-year highs in line with crude oil’s surge on supply shortfall worries, slamming air carriers and travellers with steep cost increases just as air travel was starting to recover from COVID-19 restrictions. JETS (Reuters)
    • McDonald’s (MCD), KFC and Coca-Cola (KO) face boycott threats for not halting operations in Russia amid Ukraine war. (Sky News)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Gold Standard Ventures (GSV) Announces Management Change.
    • Liminal BioSciences (LMNL) Announces Receipt of NASDAQ Deficiency Notice Regarding Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Rover (ROVR) Announces CFO Succession Plan.
    • The Oncology Institute (TOI) promotes Dr. Matt Miller to COO, effective March 15.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • ChampionX (CHX) approves $250 million share repurchase program.
    • Ranger Oil (ROCC) $100 Million Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements: 
    • Braemar Hotels & Resorts (BHR) announces the reinstatement of quarterly common stock dividends, declares first quarter dividend of $0.01..
    • Ranger Oil (ROCC) Quarterly Dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +4, Dow Jones +35NASDAQ -18, and Russell 2000 +10.  Asia lower and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 33.34 from 32.24 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.851% from 1.78% from yesterday.  Bitcoin is at $38,899.63 from $38,610.31 at +3.51%. As of 8:08 a.m. EST

Monday’s Action – 03/07/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Financial, Industrials, Real Estate, Basic Materials, Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Basic Materials of note.

Stocks continued to slide on Monday as oil prices climbed higher.  NASDAQ was down 3.62%.  USO was up 3.66% to $82.37.    Updated 03/07/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: MDB, GWRE, CASY, DV, CRCT, BMBL, ABM, FIGS, SUMO, SFIX, YEXT, XENT, WTI of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: CPB, THO, OTLY, KFY, DSEY, ERJ, UNFI, VERX, EBIX, PLCE, REVG, SRRK, VRA of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DKS +0.11, WOOF +0.03, STVN +0.01
  • Flat: OLPX.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: DM, LAC.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: AVDX, CLAR, OLPX, WOOF, DKS.
  • Negative Guidance: TDUP, ROVR.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 03/07/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VYGR +14%, CLAR +11%, MASS +7%, HPK +6%, AZZ +5%, AVDX +4%.
  • Gap Down: ROVR -13%, TDUP -8%.

Insider Action: SAFE, W, NOVA sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. TRIP sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 03/07/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: SHEL DKS SPWR (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Business shutdowns today in Russia include Estee Lauder (EL).
  • EU leaders plan to phase out purchases of Russian energy. (Reuters)
  • EU Weighs Huge Joint Bond Sale for Energy, Defense Funding (Bloomberg)
  • Chinese officials are said to be considering options for state-owned companies to buy or increase stakes or assets in Russian energy and commodity companies as Russia faces a slew of sanctions from Europe and the United States. (Bloomberg)
  • Volkswagen to stop taking orders for some plug-in hybrid vehicles due to chip shortage, Ukraine war.
  • Nickel surges to an unprecedented $100,000 on short squeeze limit up move and LME suspends trading. (Bloomberg)
  • European Banks sell off on fears of Russian exposure though most have little exposure. (WSJ)
  • Secret surveillance program to track money transfers to Mexico revealed by Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR). (WSJ)
  • Americans are paying the most on record for gasoline. (CNBC)
  • Shell (SHEL) to stop buying Russian oil and gas. (NYT)
  • Google (GOOG) to acquire Mandiant (MNDT) for $23 a share in all-cash deal valued at about $5.4 billion (MarketWatch)
  • Samsung (SSNLF) was hacked overnight by same group that hacked Nvidia (NVDA).
  • Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) look to increase large merchant fees. (WSJ)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) and its move higher by 34% yesterday. Disney (DIS) to roll out an ad supported level of Disney+.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 0%.  Updated 03/07/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews en route Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base Fort Worth, 11:15 a.m. EST
    • Press Secretary Jen Psaki will speak aboard Air Force One en route Fort Worth, Texas, 12:30 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Fort Worth, Texas, 2:45 p.m. EST
    • The President and the Secretary of Veterans Affairs speak with VA health care providers about addressing the health effects of environmental exposures such as burn pits and receive a briefing on primary care and specialty health services for veterans, 3:30 p.m. EST
    • The President and the Secretary of Veterans Affairs deliver remarks on expanding access to health care and benefits for veterans affected by military environmental exposures such as burn pits, as part of the President’s Unity Agenda for the Nation, 4:30 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Fort Worth, Texas en route Joint Base Andrews, 6:25 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at Joint Base Andrews, 9:00 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 9:20 p.m. EST

Economic

  • February National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index for February dropped to 95.7 vs expectation of 97.40. (MarketWatch Recap of release)
  • International Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • Wholesale Inventories 10:00 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • AZZ Inc. (AZZ) to Acquire Precoat Metals from Sequa Corporation.
  • Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) enters into agreement to acquire Global Risk Partners Limited.
  • Google (GOOG) to Acquire Mandiant (MNDT) for $23 per share. (MarketWatch)
  • MSFT has walked away from plans to acquire MNDT.
  • Construction Partners (ROAD) announces acquisition of Southern Asphalt.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Securities Consumer and Retail Technology Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
    • Canaccord Genuity Digital Disruptor Conference 2022
    • Exane BNP Paribas & Jefferies Spring Automotive Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
    • JPM Asean Commodities Forum
    • KeyBanc Capital Markets Annual Emerging Technology Summit 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
    • RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
    • RBC Capital Markets Chemicals and Packaging Virtual Conference 2022
    • Scotiabank TMT Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
    • UBS Technology 1×1 Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
    • Wolfe Research Fintech Forum 2022 (03/08/22-03/10/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Citi Global Property CEO Conference 2022 (03/06/22-03/09/22)
        • Cowen and Co. 42nd Annual Healthcare Conference 2022 (03/07/22-03/09/22)
        • DNB Energy & Shipping Conference 2022 (03/07/22-03/08/22)
        • Evercore ISI Elite Energy & Materials Summit 2022 (03/07/22-03/09/22)
        • JMP Securities Technology Conference 2022 (03/07/22-03/08/22)
        • JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Corporate Conference 2022 (03/07/22-03/09/22)
        • JP Morgan Gaming Lodging Restaurant & Leisure Management Access Forum 2022 (03/07/22-03/8/22)
        • Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) Conference 2022 (03/07/22-03/10/22)
        • Piper Sandler Western Financial Services Conference 2022 (03/07/22-03/08/22)
        • Raymond James & Associates 43rd Annual Institutional Investors Conference 2022 (03/06/22-03/09/22)
  • Company Meetings: HUM, TOL.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: RGLD, AIMC, ATGN, FISV, GTES, MITI, PH, POOL.
  • Update: AZZ, TTE, DTE.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: Apple (AAPL) March Special Event (1 p.m. EST): Peek Performance 2022, ECL.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Clean Power (ACP) Operations and Maintenance Safety (OMS) Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/10/22)
    • Filtech 2022 (03/08/22-03/10/22)
    • Opal’s Annual Family Office Winter Forum 2022
    • Optical Fiber Conference (OFC) 2022 (03/08/22-03/10/22)
    • VRP Virtual Energy Efficiency and Climate Solutions Day 2022
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • Association of Insurance and Financial Analysts (AIFA) 47th Annual Conference 2022 (03/06/22-03/08/22)
        • CERAWeek 2022 (03/06/22-03/11/22)
        • World Defense Show 2022 (03/06/22-03/09/22)
        • Western Veterinary Annual Conference 2022 (03/06/22-03/09/22)
        • ESMO Targeted Anticancer Therapies Congress TAT (03/04/22-03/08/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

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